Pennant Is Phils’ To Lose

Despite losing the best pitcher of last year’s postseason, the Philadelphia Phillies remain the odds-on favorite to win the National League.

It has been debated for months, and the Cliff Lee-Roy Halladay trade is undoubtedly the most controversial trade in the club’s history.  Cliff Lee was everything the team had hoped for:  a leader, a winner, and a fan favorite.  But, the meeting Amaro had with Lee’s agent was apparently discouraging enough to pull the trigger for the better pitcher.

But is Halladay truly better than Lee?  Well, he is by the numbers.  Since his premiere season in 1998, ‘Doc’ has maintained a 3.43 ERA.  Compare that to Lee’s 3.97 ERA since 2002, and the better pitcher is clearly Halladay.  Not to mention the fact that Halladay has pitched in the winningest division in baseball since his rookie year, making it hard not to imagine a scenario in which he can be a great pitcher with Philadelphia.

I also cannot help but look at the slump Lee went through during the second part of his stay in the regular season.  There were four games during August and September where he gave up four earned runs or more (with 3 of the four games giving up 6 or more). Some of those games —which included some lowly opponents such as the Astros and Nationals —he looked lost, and his best pitches lacked the movement they usually have.

Another cause for concern with Lee is the surgery he had on his foot a few weeks ago. The thought lingers in my mind whether or not the Phils knew about the foot problem before trading him.  Granted, the foot problem wouldn’t have been enough on its own to trade him, but it might have helped put Amaro’s decision over the hump.  If the foot remains a problem for Lee, Amaro’s decision can only look better.

The shock value of the trade had the biggest impact on the fans, who weeks earlier were calling him the savior of the season.  But they must understand that in order to get Halladay, the organization had to ensure that they would not deplete their farm system entirely of its core pieces.  The last thing the fans need is another gap of thirteen years between playoff appearances.  

Lee was a great pitcher while he was here.  But if I was faced with the question Amaro faced in the offseason, Lee for one year or Halladay for four, I’d take the latter in a heartbeat.

Overlooked by the blockbuster trade is the signing of Placido Polanco.  

Polanco, having not played third base since his last stint with the Phils, is more than likely a defensive downgrade from Pedro Feliz.  

But offensively, it is a much different story.  

The Fightins are hoping that Polanco can provide stability to a lineup prone to the familiar formula of home run or strikout.  Polanco’s career OBP is .348.  This is a sizable improvement from Feliz’s OBP of .293, a considerably low number caused by his lack of plate discipline.

As far as batting averages go, Feliz has a career BA of .254, compared to Polanco’s steller BA of .303.  

Polanco will most likely bat second, pushing Shane Victorino back to the seventh spot. Being that Victorino has a historical tendency of not striking out or grounding into double plays, his presence will definitely be felt in the lower third of the lineup.

Where else have the Phillies improved?  After reviewing the roster, there are definately more potential threats on the bench than there were last year.

Matt Stairs will always be a hero in the city of Philadelphia for what he did in Game 4 of the NLCS in 2008.  But his middle of the season slump in 2009 was almost unbearable to watch.  But who else was there to go for Charlie Manuel?  Paul Bako or Eric Bruntlett?

Something had to be done about the bench, and luckily for Charlie Manuel, he’ll have more than one option to go to.  Joining Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco on the bench will be Ross Gload, Brian Schneider, and Juan Castro.  

Listed below are their career OPS:

 

• Ross Gload:  .736
• Brian Schneider:  .679
• Juan Castro:  .601

The most impressive new addition is Ross Gload who also carries a career .283 BA with him.  Although he played first base last year, he will probably end up playing in the outfield when he isn’t pitch hitting, maybe giving Jayson Werth an occasional rest against righties.  

The one area the Phils have not improved is the bullpen.  There will be no Chan Ho Park, Clay Condrey, or Scott Eyre.  Although they have signed Jose Contreras and Danys Baez, not much has been done for the bullpen which had the most blown saves in the NL last year.  

But, it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which Brad Lidge can do worse than he did last year.  And as bad as he was, the team still made it to the World Series.  If Lidge can perform even a little bit like he did in 2008, he should be alright.

If not, I don’t think anyone knows what will happen.  Ryan Madson hasn’t showed he can fill the void, and J.C. Romero might not be fully healed.  If a trade isn’t made, someone will have to step up from within the organization.  This scenario however, is something that the Phils are hopeful they will never had to address this season.

Despite the flaws in the bullpen, the Phils have managed to improve slightly from their 2009 form.  

If Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge can rebound and the fifth starter performs adequately, the sky’s the limit.  No team in the National League has made any major game changing moves, and as of now, the only teams that can threaten the Phils path to a third World Series appearance are the Dodgers, Cardinals, and possibly the Braves.  

And after watching how the Phils have handled business over the past couple of years, these threats don’t look very intimidating.

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Philadelphia Phillies Key No. 2: Can Cole Hamels Go Back to the Future?

The Philadelphia Phillies Five Keys to the 2010 Season  (Part Two of a Five Part Series)

 

A significant factor in Ruben Amaro’s decision to trade Cliff Lee relates to his “leap of faith” that this season’s version of Cole Hamels will look a lot like the 2008 model.  

If the Phillies hope to have another successful season, Amaro and everyone else in the organization know full well that it will require a return to form by the young pitcher who’s stock had been sky rocketing until experiencing some heavy turbulence last season. This certainly applies to the fate of the regular season, but will be especially critical in the spaced, short series format of the postseason tournament.

As the Yankees demonstrated, along with many teams before them, two top notch starting pitchers at the top of the rotation can provide a decided advantage towards navigating to a championship. And, surely, two dominant hurlers taking the ball four or five games in a short series has been a proven postseason formula. The 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks are the poster boys for this approach. 

Last season, the Phillies proved the inverse to be true as well. The wheels teetered a little in the playoffs, but finally came off the bus in the World Series when the team could not follow up Lee’s other worldly performances with the type of quality outing expected of a true No. 2 starter. 

This is not to suggest that last year’s World Series defeat all falls on Hamels, although his now infamous comments after another failed performance suggest that he was seemingly feeling his team’s collective weight on his shoulders. Pedro Martinez kept the team afloat in the playoffs by filling the void, but when his life raft started to leak in the Fall Classic, the hole in the rotation’s second slot was glaringly exposed as the 2008 Phillies’ Achilles heel. 

Of course, it would be foolish to get ahead of ourselves since there is a full 162 game marathon in between to determine who will compete in the year-end tournament. Simply put, there will be no need to worry about the postseason rotation if the team does not qualify in the regular season race. 

To that point, it cannot be overstated to say that Hamels will be instrumental in his team’s chances of both garnering a fourth consecutive National League Eastern Division crown and a playoff spot. The competition has gotten tougher and the current construct of the squad puts pressure squarely on the shoulders of the starters to perform at their full potential.

The team can ill afford the potential death spiral triggered by faltering starting pitching leading to a burned out bullpen. There is little reason to believe that Roy Halladay will be anything other than a rock at the top of the rotation—an unquestionable ace that harkens back to the days of Steve Carlton.

Accordingly, the discussion and scrutiny begins with the pitcher who will be handed the ball the following day. As was covered yesterday, the rotation’s fifth slot is currently a large question mark at best and has the potential to be a season long-trouble spot, so this just ups the ante for Hamels.

Besides avoiding undue stress on the relief corps, a solid season by Hamels will greatly diffuse pressure on J.A. Happ as he embarks on the encore challenge that comes with winning “The Sporting News Rookie of the Year.” And, a strong season the likes of Hamels’ 2007 and 2008 seasons (that resulted in a combined 29-15 record) will evoke an air of invincibility throughout the clubhouse. 

After entering last season with an intense hangover induced by an offseason of celebrating a starring role in the Phillies second World Series Championship, Hamels struggled with injury, shaken confidence, and ultimately the growing frustration of unmet expectations. 

Having learned a valuable lesson that so many before him have also experienced, this season will presumably be different. The young hurler reportedly dedicated himself to a regimen of physical preparation through the offseason that was largely missing a year ago—and the presence of Halladay with his “lead-by-example” work ethic will only help. 

A quick start would not only bolster the somewhat tenuous confidence of Hamels, but it would also send a ripple of positive current through his teammates. But, for that to happen, “Hollywood” will need to re-gain command of his curveball and revitalize his signature change-up to the point of restoring his confidence to throw it at anytime in the count. 

The Phillies’ “No. 2” needs to find the form that had fans, pundits and players singing his praises throughout the previous two seasons before encountering last year’s difficulties.  For 2010 and probably beyond, Ruben Amaro and the Phillies are banking on Cole Hamels going back to the future to once again become the guy they rode to a World Championship. 

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The Philadelphia Phillies 5 Keys to the 2010 Season

Part 1 of a 5 Part Series

As the Philadelphia Phillies come together in the warm Clearwater sunshine to begin preparation for the long journey of another major league baseball season, keen focus will be placed on some aspects of the team more so than others. Although history and human nature teaches us that nothing should be taken for granted, that wisdom does not apply equally across the board. 

 

Each season is a new chapter that brings a series of new issues and unanswered questions that will undoubtedly be instrumental to the fortunes of the team. Surely new story lines will emerge as the season unfolds, but as the team looks over the hood with 99% of the journey still in front of them, a handful of matters get the spotlight as having particular import in the quest for another World Championship. 

 

The Phillies are in the midst of one of, if not the greatest, period of prosperity in team history. The magical and cathartic 2008 World Series Championship season along with another terrific run to repeat last year that fell just short serve as strong testimony. 

 

But, the normal process of addressing perceived weaknesses combined with the economic complexities of the current era of the sport bring about inevitable changes. Certainly the defending National League Champs are not immune, nor chose to remain static, as they venture to take another triumphant trip or two down Broad Street come November.  

 

In just a few months since last year’s journey ended in disappointment on that cold Bronx night, many events have occurred and many players have shuffled in and out. The biggest news, of course, involved the surprising switch of Cy Young pitchers at the top of the team’s rotation. 

 

The Philadelphia media, fans and players alike will most assuredly maintain a keen watch on and contrast the performances of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee throughout the season, but success or failure for the Phillies in 2010 will more likely revolve around other areas of the club. 

 

Today, I begin a five part series highlighting the five keys to the Phillies 2010 season. Although an unforeseen injury or an off year by one of the team’s core players could have significant impact on the season, those occurrences are largely unpredictable and accordingly not anticipated. 

 

 

Key No. 1– The Fifth Starter in the Rotation

The hope (and perhaps necessity for another World Series run) is that inserting Roy Halladay at the top of the Phillies rotation will result in at least 18 wins, but ideally 20-22 victories. Barring some freak of nature, the former Cy Young Award winner’s track record suggests that this is a likely scenario. 

 

Penciling Halladay’s name in at the top of the rotation provides a great deal of comfort to Manager Charlie Manuel, but what keeps him up at night is the spot on the opposite end of the starting staff. 

 

With Pedro Martinez still a free agent seeking a new home, and Jamie Moyer coming off a subpar season that ended with three separate surgeries, the fifth spot in the rotation is a source of angst. Throw into the mix the Kyle Kendrick conundrum and you have the potential for multiple Maalox moments throughout the season. 

 

As much as Halladay is a sure thing, the other end of the pitching quintet is currently one large question mark. And, with the minor league cupboard currently a little bit bare, the fall back provisions are somewhat limited in regard to finding a replacement within the organization or via trade. 

 

The front runner is currently Moyer by virtue of his $8 million salary and the view that he is not ideally suited for the bullpen. Also in his favor is his 47-31 record in a Phillies uniform over the past three plus seasons. 

 

The good news is that Moyer is ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation efforts and is already in camp.

 

The bad news is it remains to be seen whether his surgically repaired body can withstand the rigors of another major league season at the advanced age of 47.  Additionally, his fastball routinely clocked in at 82 mph—before going down with a torn groin muscle. 

 

Moyer has made a living, particularly in his twilight years, of skating the fine line of future retirement through guile and precision. Would losing a couple miles per hour on his pitches or an ever so slight alteration in his mechanics tip the scales toward the Adam Eaton end of the pitching effectiveness spectrum? 

 

The next potential option is Kyle Kendrick, who came out of nowhere to have some early success with the big club in 2007 and 2008, but was exiled to the pen and later the minor’s after beginning to falter in his second season. The Phillies brass felt that it was a matter of the league catching up to his limited repertoire of pitches.

 

During last year’s all expense paid trip to the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, Kendrick worked diligently on adding a change-up, improving his slider and getting more bite on his cutter. Based on the empirical data and the assessment of Phillies coaches- mission accomplished. 

 

This is not to say that he is the answer for the fifth slot, but there is a great deal more optimism about his ability to compete at the major league level. Surely the decision to add Kendrick to the NLDS roster was a good indicator, and letting Pedro walk was another.  

 

A factor in the decision might relate to the cozy dimensions of Citizen’s Bank Park, where Kendrick’s sinker is a good fit. Conversely, Moyer soft tosses can often have hometown onlookers holding their breath against hitters with some pop. 

 

Another potential candidate is recently signed Jose Contreras, but he would not seem to be the answer. He is several years removed from a couple good campaigns and has mostly had a high ERA as a starter. What seemed to spark Ruben Amaro’s interest in signing him anyway was his work out of the bullpen at the end of last season. 

 

As great as it will be to have Halladay taking the ball every fifth day when the regular season gets underway, the ball will be given almost an equal amount of times to someone occupying the bottom spot. 

 

The first four members in the rotation are pretty much set in stone– Halladay, Hamels, Blanton and Happ. But still, the team needs a solid contribution from the pitcher that completes the set to win an improved NL East and make another trip to the postseason. 

 

Best case scenario is Moyer finding his 2008 groove and/or Kendrick proving Phillies coaches right that he now has the well rounded stuff to keep major league hitters on their heels.  Worst case scenario is a bullpen taxing, record deflating pitching adventure every fifth day. 

 

 

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Topps Million Card Spotlight: 1988 Von Hayes

Today, my travels took me to the local Wal-Mart where I picked up some packs of 2010 Topps Baseball Series 1 and landed four Million Card Giveaway redemptions.

Unfortunately for me, the booty wasn’t good today, so I’ve chosen the best of the bunch–1988 Von Hayes.

Hayes was a slightly above-averge player for the Phillies for the latter part of the 1980s after coming over in a trade for Julio Franco in December, 1982. Hayes had his best year in 1986, when he hit .305, slugged 19 HRs, drove in 98, led the National League in doubles with 46 and tied for the league lead in runs with 107. He also swiped 24 bases.

For much of his career, Hayes possessed a decent combination of speed and power. He averaged mid-double digits in HRs, and was good for 20-30 stolen bases per season.

Von Francis Hayes ended his career as a California Angel in 1992 after spending 12 seasons in the Bigs, including nine with the Phillies and two with the Indians. His career totals include a .267 BA, 143 HR, 696 RBI and 253 SB. He also made one All-Star team in 1988.

Other Hayes cards that have been “unlocked” so far on www.ToppsMillion.com include: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, and 1991.

Topps Million Card Giveaway redemption cards are randomly inserted in packs of 2010 Topps Baseball at a rate of 1 per 6 packs. Register today at www.ToppsMillion.com to unlock your redemption cards, start your collection, trade with other collectors or just hoard as many 1987 Pete Rose cards as you can.

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Phillies: Spring Training 2010 Previews Great Season to Come

Last season has come and gone. Dreams of back-to-back World Series titles have faded in a sea of despair. Ending like a cheese steak from Geno’s, with Phans still salivating for more.

The 2010 season is here. Starting a little over 1,000 miles away from the snow-covered streets or Broad St., the Phightin’s begin their defense of their National League title. In the words of J.C. Romero, “Somebody else has a trophy that I want. We have to go get it now.” 

The Phil’s have come a long way since J-Roll stated that they were the team to beat in the N.L. East a few years back.  Now, the Phillies are seen as the team to beat in all of the National League, and in some circles, in all of baseball.  

Key offseason additions including Roy Halladay and Placido Polanco have added to this notion. While the departure of Cliff Lee and Pedro Feliz will be felt not only on the field, but in the club house, the 2010 version of the Phillies is, on paper, better suited to compete against the best that the American League has to offer.

That’s right. No longer do the concerns of the organization lie in the N.L. East. No longer do the Phaithful seem overly anxious about the National League in general. The focus has shifted to being able to field a team that, even without the D.H., can handle the upper eschelons of the American League.  

So in his second year as G.M., Ruben Amaro Jr. has gone out and acquired arguably the most dominant pitcher in the American League and a No. 2 hitter who is among the most difficult to strike out in all of baseball. 

Sure, the Phil’s will miss Lee’s dominant performance in the playoffs. And who in their right mind wouldn’t want Feliz’s steady glove at the hot corner?  But the additions to this year’s squad will be more than able to fill the shoes left behind by those departed.  

This is not just fan conjecture; it is the feeling of the organization as well.

As Manuel put it, “Feliz definitely had one of the strongest and most accurate arms at third base in baseball,” Manuel said. “He was that good as far as his throwing. Polanco has quick feet at third base. Third base is a reaction kind of place. Polly definitely can do that. Polly does throw good. He is accurate. All around with the bat and everything, he’s a better player than Feliz. I don’t see where we’re going to get hurt there.”

As far as Halladay goes, his track record speaks for itself, posting a career ERA of 3.43 and WHIP of 1.20.  Pitching in the A.L. East is no small task.  Being able to dominate there, almost unheard of.  

All things considered, 2009 is “Outta Here!” as the late, great Harry Kalas would put it.

2010 is here.  

It’s a long road ahead, and this is but the start.  But with that said, Phillies Phans have nine months to get prepared for another Parade down Broad St.  

Can’t wait to see ya there.

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Fantasy Baseball Profile: Are Jimmy Rollins’ Days of Dominance Over?

It’s odd that Jimmy Rollins’ numbers have been on the decline in the Phillies’ two most successful seasons in recent memory. From 2004-2007 he averaged 125 runs. Compare that to the 88 he’s averaged the past years and it’s a wonder how they reached the World Series in consecutive years. OK, he’s had some help, but still.

Does that mean he’s no longer a dominant fantasy force?

Hardly.

Despite a paltry .250 average last year, he still managed to produce a quality line of 100 runs, 43 doubles, five triples, 21 HRs, 77 RBIs, 31 SBs, and a .719 OPS. 

He has a career average of .274 and hadn’t hit below .277 since 2003. I fully expect his average to bounce back. With the average back in place, and being at the top of the Phillies’ potent offense, the runs should return.

With an improved average, more runs, and a healthy amount of HRs, RBIs, and SBs, Rollins remains one of the elite players in a relatively shallow position (click to see SS rankings). His two year dip in production should make him a great value this year. 

Prediction:  .275, 115 runs,  18 HRs, 80 RBIs, 38 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto 
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin
Houston Astros: Lance Berkman
Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Howie Kendrick
Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney
Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Hart
Minnesota Twins: Joe Nathan
New York Mets: Jason Bay
New York Yankees: Robinson Cano
Oakland A’s: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Originally published at LestersLegends.com.

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Can J.A. Happ Avoid Sophomore Slump in 2010?

Take a glance at the statistics, and it would be easy to say Phillies left-hander J.A. Happ is primed for a disappointing 2010.

Not many expected the 26-year-old rookie to go 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA while dominating the opposition on numerous occasions, but he did just that. 

Not many expected him to have a chance to be named Rookie of the Year, but he did. (He eventually lost out to Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan.)

Not many even expected him to be anything more than a bullpen piece or occasional spot-starter, but Chan Ho Park’s struggles allowed the two players to reverse roles relatively early in the season.

Now, Happ finds himself ready to go through his first full season as a starter in the majors. 

Tons of great work has already been done on the prospects of Happ in 2010, especially by David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, so he gets credit for a lot of what will be talked about in this space.

It was Keith Law of ESPN who, in part, set off the alarms last September about Happ’s incredibly good luck in 2009.

For those who had not followed Happ’s stats last year, it was a bit of a disconcerting shot at the left-hander.

For those who had, it was a realistic slap in the face that this won’t last forever.

The damage? Happ’s FIP in 2009 was 4.33. Fielding Independent Pitching is a metric used to see how a pitcher pitches when defense is disregarded.

Meanwhile, xFIP, which has been used to predict a pitcher’s future ERA, had Happ at 4.49 last year.

The use of xFIP has increased over the years because of its accuracy. 

Joe Blanton had a 4.05 ERA last season, with an xFIP of 4.07. Cole Hamels’ xFIP was 3.69, with his actual ERA being 4.32. That would mean Hamels is likely to see a decrease in his ERA this year as long as he doesn’t change his approach.

The fact that Happ’s ERA and xFIP were so drastically different would lead one to believe his ERA will increase this season.

His BABIP last year was .270, with anything above the league average of .290 being unlucky and anything below being lucky.

Being 20 points below the league average would tell anyone that Happ had a very good season in terms of luck. 

Throw in the fact that he stranded 85.2 percent of baserunners, and it’s just hard to imagine Happ can have the same performance in 2010.

Taking all that into consideration, would an ERA in the 4.30-4.50 range be a disappointment for Happ?

From my perspective, it wouldn’t be. Coming out of college, Happ wasn’t a highly regarded prospect.

There wasn’t much expected of him (which seems to be the story of his career). When Law said last year that Happ was a decent fourth starter, he was probably right.

Over the long haul, it’s probably not a good idea to bank on Happ to go out and post the numbers he did last year as a starter. A 2.93 ERA is something we should expect out of Hamels and Roy Halladay, not Happ.

If Happ comes out this season and posts a 4.35 ERA, wins 12 or 13 games, and doesn’t break down due to injury, I’d call it a successful year for him.

As mentioned previously, Murphy did some interesting research regarding Happ.

He found that “from 1995-2008, 13 pitchers have posted an ERA of 3.00 or below (min. 150 IP) in one of their first three seasons in the majors. One of those pitchers, Alan Benes, missed the entire next season.

Of the remaining 12 pitchers, eight saw their ERA rise by at least 0.75, seven by at least 1.00, and three by at least 2.00. Eight of the 12 saw their WHIP rise by at least .200.”

The pitchers who had similar numbers the next year were Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Barry Zito, and Hideo Nomo.

Great things have always been expected of them because they are (or were at one point) great pitchers.

It could be possible that Happ may have a season parallel to the 1998 year that Andy Pettitte had for the Yankees. It serves us right to look at the two, because many scouts have compared the pitchers at times.

Pettitte had a 2.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 1997, then had a 4.24 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 1998. (We’ll try to avoid the use of performance-enhancing drug jokes here.)

Unfortunately xFIP only goes back to 2002, so the calculations would have to be done through manual labor, but we can still talk about the effect that Pettitte’s season had on the Yankees.

What did 1998 result in? A World Championship for the New Yorkers.

While Pettitte did struggle, he was a good fourth starter for the team. Happ can be just that for the Phillies, because Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton will go to war before Happ will.

Even if Happ doesn’t repeat his 2009, he is still a valuable asset for 2010.

His sneaky fastball does seem to catch hitters off guard, and his change-up has been devastating at times.

His cutter keeps the ball in on the hands of hitters, not allowing them to extend for good swings.

He hides the ball well and is relatively deceptive, which has appeared to give him an advantage thus far in his career.

Intense video watching by the opposition from last year’s games could force Happ to make adjustments.

Baseball is certainly a game of adjustments, and Happ will have to adapt.

 

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 10 NL Pitchers

For most of us, draft day is rapidly approaching. And while we all have spent months reading numerous different articles and opinions regarding player projections and rankings, the time has come to begin assembling our 10 best options at each position.

The Starting Pitcher’s position is one that is always in highly debated. In spite of all the various pitchers one can choose in the draft, getting an idea on whom to target early goes a long way towards providing your team with safe and reliable arms.

As we did last year, our target will be focusing on the 10 best in both the National League, as well as the American League, while finishing up with the 10 best dark horse pitchers for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.

To start, the National League has quite a number of pitchers that have huge potential for great fantasy production, but not quite as much youth as its American League counterpart. Still, the National League does have a tremendous amount of rising talent; talent that is good enough to rival even the most experienced pitcher.

Let’s take a look at the National League’s 10 best.

10. Wandy Rodriguez – Astros:
Rodriguez is coming off of his best season after going 14-12 with a 3.04 ERA, 193K’s, in 205.2 IP. While his one year deal will sort of act like a showcase for the 31 year old, there is little doubt he will build upon his 2009 performance. His K/9 should hover right around 9 this year.

9. Brandon Webb – Diamondbacks:
Webb may be viewed as a huge risk considering he missed nearly all of 2009, and that is precisely what makes him a great value pick. Webb is on track to make a highly anticipated return in 2010, and let’s not forget what he did in 2008: 22-7, 3.30 ERA, 183 K, 226.2 IP, 7.3 K/9.

8. Chris Carpenter – Cardinals:
One of the biggest points to remember about Chris Carpenter is what he did last year. How many guys go 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA and a 7 K/9 rate at 34 after returning from Tommy John surgery? That’s right none. And as if that isn’t enough, the Cardinals are a stacked team that knows how to win, and preserve the pitcher’s win—he is a solid top ten pitcher.

7. Carlos Zambrano – Cubs:
Although Big Z doesn’t want you to know, he has dropped a ton of weight, and plans to shed himself the notion of being washed up after his lack luster 2009 season. Last year, Big Z went 9-7 with a 3.44 ERA, 152 K, in only 169.1 IP, and you can be certain that with his passion and desire to be the best—not to mention his talent level—Big Z will be back on top affording fantasy owners a very nice season.

6. Adam Wainwright – Cardinals:
See, I told you the Cardinals were stacked! Wainwright had a very nice season in 2009 going 19-8 with an impressive 2.68 ERA, alongside 212 K’s. The guy is 30-11 over the past two years and is another solid, reliable arm offered by the Cardinals. He also boasts an 8 K/9 rate that should get even better in 2010.

5. Cole Hamels – Phillies:
Before you balk at Hamels’ 10-11 record in 2009, before you scoff at his bloated 4.32 ERA, or divulge the popular speculation of his commitment, let’s remember a couple of things shall we? The guy got pelted by a bunch of hits resulting in being pulled in some games; something that negatively affects a stat line. He had a baby, and was just simply out of gas in 2009. So 2010 will surely be a big time redemption year for the young ace.

4. Johan Santana – Mets:
Johan isn’t quite what he once was, but he is still a top ten pitcher in the National League. Last year, Santana managed a 13-9 season with a 3.13 ERA, with 146 K’s in 166.2 IP which equates to an 8 K/9 rate. The Mets did upgraded their hitting, which should have a tremendous effect on the pitching staff; a staff that all starts with, and relies on, the success of Santana.

3. Roy Oswalt – Astros:
For a team that can’t seem to win the right amount of games to clinch a post season berth, they sure do have a ton of great talent in their pitching staff, and Oswalt is the leader of that group. Last year, despite dealing with some back issues, Oswalt still went a respectable 17-10 with a 2.79 ERA, while stockpiling 208 K’s in just over 225 IP. Oswalt feels as healthy as ever, which means nothing but fantasy goodness.

2. Roy Halladay – Phillies:
One of the most versatile pitchers in all of baseball. A guy who had nine complete games under his belt last year alone. This hard working brick house is 17-8 with a 3.02 lifetime ERA against the National League—and Philadelphia now owns him. Maybe it’s time you do to.

1. Tim Lincecum – Giants:
Well aside from being a no brainer here, Lincecum is rapidly building what will eventually become a legacy for the ages. Two time Cy-Young Award winner, 40-17 with a 2.90 ERA in his first 90 major league starts, and a guy who averaged a stellar 10.4 K/9 rate in 2009. Last year’s 15-7, 261 K performance is just a touch of what’s to come in 2010.

Interested in the American League rankings? Click here to check them out.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Carlos Gonzalez: Your 2010 Fantasy Man Crush

Now that the baseball offseason is almost over and spring training is right around the corner, it’s time to start seriously looking at fantasy baseball. In the upcoming weeks, I will come out with my fantasy rankings for each position.

For today, I wanted to focus on one player in particular.

Let’s face it, even the most heterosexual male has a man crush. A man crush by definition by Urban Dictionary is “When a straight man has a “crush” on another man, not sexual but kind of idolizing him.”

I can say with a staunch and unblemished record of heterosexuality that I have a man crush on George Brett. I would be like a little school girl if I ever met him in person.

While I might have a man crush on Brett, fantasy baseball owners had a man crush on Chris Davis last year. After Davis hit .285 and smacked 17 home runs and had an .880 OPS in 80 games for the Texas Rangers in 2008, Davis was a hot commodity come draft day.

Every fantasy owner wanted him and in turn, drafted him way, way too early. Davis disappointed fantasy owners last year when he hit only .238 with 21 home runs, 59 RBI, and a .285 OBP in 113 games. Davis was so bad at one point that the Rangers sent him down to Triple-A.

This year, there is one player who stands out to me as the new fantasy man crush. That player is Colorado Rockies’ OF Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez was acquired by the Rockies in the trade that sent Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s.

 

In his first season with the Rockies, Gonzalez’s numbers were quite similar to Davis’ in his first year with the Rangers. Gonzalez hit .284 with 13 home runs and an .880 OPS in 89 games. It’s almost eerily similar to Davis.

The one difference between Davis’ 2008 season and Gonzalez’s 2009 was that Gonzalez has the ability to steal a base. Gonzalez stole 16 bases in 20 attempts in those 89 games.

If the average fan didn’t know about Gonzalez during the regular season, they certainly got to know him in the postseason. In four games against the Philadelphia Phillies, Gonzalez hit .558 with one home run, two doubles, two stolen bases, and a 1.514 OPS.

He was a one-man wrecking crew.

If Gonzalez’s abbreviated performance didn’t wet fantasy owner’s appetite, then his postseason performance did. With a starting position locked down in the Rockies’ outfield for 2010, fantasy owners are expecting big things from Gonzalez in 2010.

But the question is–will Gonzalez flame out like Davis did in 2009 and disappoint fantasy owners?

The answer to that question is no, he will not.

I fully expect Gonzalez to have a huge season in 2010. I don’t see any reason why he can’t put up a .275, 20-25 HR, .350 OBP, 20-25 stolen base season.

Gonzalez should bat second in the Rockies’ lineup, so his RBI numbers might not be that high, but he should make up for it in the runs scored category.

Don’t be afraid to draft this year’s man crush as your second outfielder. He won’t disappoint you in 2010.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

The Philadelphia Phillies All-Time Line Up

The Philadelphia Phillies hold the distinction of the longest standing franchise in professional sports having been formed 127 years ago. As many Phillies fans will attest, the team has endured more than its fair share of lean seasons on its way to also setting the record for most losses with 10,167 and counting.

Of course, a great deal of that is ancient history as the team is currently considered one of the elite teams in baseball, if not professional sports. The present period of prosperity has included three consecutive National League Eastern Division Titles, two straight National League Pennants and the 2008 World Series Championship.

Besides the actual accomplishments, Philadelphia has transformed into a baseball destination spot. Night in and night out, arguably the best venue in sports is filled to capacity with passionate fans who come to see some of the very best players its sport has to offer.

As the team prepares to embark on another promising season, I have decided to take a look back through the Philadelphia Phillies checkered past to see how current players stack up against their predecessors. As part of that trip through time, I present to you the Philadelphia Phillies All-Time Line-Up. No rules, no guidelines– just my own personal anachronistic “Dream Team.”

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