2012 Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting Their Opening Day Lineup

When Philadelphia Phillies slugging first baseman Ryan Howard grounded weakly to second to shockingly finish off the 2011 season against the eventual World Champions St. Louis Cardinals, an immediate impact on the 2012 opening day lineup was born.

Howard not only made the final out of the Phillies’ most successful season (regular season record-wise) but he also blew out his left achilles tendon in the process.  Affectionately known as “The Big Piece” by Phils skipper Charlie Manuel, Howard was undergoing surgery five days later and the prognosis was quickly released as being out for five-to-six months. Manuel will have to start the season with a big missing piece right in the heart of the lineup.

Also gone from 2011 will be left fielder Raul Ibanez.  Ibanez finished second on the team behind Howard in games played.  Howard played in 152 games while Ibanez participated in 144. Most would be surprised to know that Ibanez, not Victorino, Utley or Rollins, was also second on the team in home runs and RBI.

Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went out and found plenty of options for Manuel to work with to replace Ibanez and hold down the fort until Howard is due back, which can be anywhere from early May to the All-Star break.

First, Amaro signed former Phillie and future Hall-of-Famer Jim Thome. Thome will turn 41 in September and hasn’t played first base in the field since the 2007 season, just four games since being traded from the Phillies after the 2005 season. So it still remains to be seen how many games Thome can play at first. He might be more of a replacement for the departed left-handed pinch-hitting specialist Ross Gload.

A little after the Thome signing, Amaro swung a deal with the Colorado Rockies to bring in versatile slugger Ty Wiggington.  Wiggington was a 2010 All Star for the Baltimore Orioles and played 98 games at 1B that season.  Last year, Wiggington played 3B primarily but still saw 36 games at 1B and 21 in left field.  Without a doubt, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to play all three of those positions this season while hopefully still knocking the ball out of the park on occasion.

Next, the Phillies surprisingly gave 1B/OF Laynce Nix a two-year contract. Nix set career-highs in games played in 2011, playing in 124 for the Washington Nationals.  85 of those games were in the outfield (73 in left) and he also chipped in nine games at 1B without making an error.  Nix also slugged 16 home runs in 2011 and could possibly surpass that in the much more HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

The trio of Thome/Wiggington/Nix have one more teammate that should assist in making up for the Howard injury and Ibanez departure.  John Mayberry was one of the bigger Phillies surprises in 2011.  In just 267 at bats, Mayberry hit .273 with 15 Home Runs and 49 RBI.

Big John played primarily CF in 2011 but he also played 21 in LF and 18 at 1B. So again, Manuel has four options for LF and 1B come opening day: two left-handed sluggers in Thome and Nix and two righties in Mayberry and Wiggington.

The rest of the every-day players will look very familiar.  Two of them, 2B Chase Utley and 3B Placido Polanco have been given clean bills of health after injury riddled seasons in 2011.  SS Jimmy Rollins will return after signing a three-year contract in the offseason.

CF Shane Victorino is coming off one of his better seasons while RF belongs to Hunter Pence, who will make his first Phillies opening day lineup. Lastly, Carlos Ruiz returns to handle the pitching staff while providing the Phils with one of their more clutch bats.

So how does this all shake out? I really don’t think Jim Thome can just dust off his first baseman’s mitt and go out there and not be a liability.  The Phillies bats aren’t what they used to be and they tend to play a lot of close games.

Due to Thome’s age and lack of defense to back up their fine pitching rotation, he’ll be resigned to late inning pinch-hitting duties.  That leaves Laynce Nix to play either 1B or LF vs. right-handed pitching and Ty Wiggington will play 1B vs. left-handed pitching, leaving LF for John Mayberry.  Mayberry might also get the opportunity to play full-time if he has a strong spring, no matter who is pitching. Here’s how it all shakes out for opening day:

Vs RIGHT

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS

2. Placido Polanco,3B

3. Chase Utley, 2B

4. Hunter Pence, RF

5. Shane Victorino, CF

6. John Mayberry, LF

7. Laynce Nix, 1B

8. Carlos Ruiz, C

 

Vs LEFT

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS

2. Placido Polanco, 3B

3. Chase Utley, 2B

4. Hunter Pence, RF

5. Shane Victorino, CF

6. John Mayberry, LF

7. Ty Wigginton, 1B

8. Carlos Ruiz, C

 

Couple of notes. If Polanco shows signs of not being 100 percent this spring, look for him to drop down to seventh in the lineup like late 2011.  Victorino would then move to second with Mayberry protecting Pence at fifth.  That scenario is much more likely versus lefties, as I don’t think Manuel wants two RH hitters back-to-back at the fourth and fifth hole vs. right-handed pitching. Nix would probably move to fifth vs. righties.

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