Philadelphia Phillies: Would Fans Turn on the Team If 2013 Is a Repeat of 2012?

Ruben Amaro Jr. can look to the recent Mitt Romney video leak to illustrate what he is dealing with relative to the expectations of Phillies fans in 2013.

Romney (now famously) said that 47 percent of Americans pay no Federal income taxes.

He did not stop there. Romney went on to describe what he sees as the significant portion of the voting public “who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement.”

However you feel about Romney’s words, and whatever your political persuasion, it is not a stretch to say that Romney’s words can easily be tweaked to describe the current relationship between the Philadelphia Phillies and their fanbase.

Substitute “Phillies” for “government” and “Phillies fans” for the people Romney was talking about as a starting point. Substitute wins, division titles and world championships for health care, food and housing, and you see where you end up.

Phillies fans, after five years, five division titles, two pennants and a World Series ring, are feeling entitled.

Like the wide swath of the population that Romney threw a belittling net over, the entitled Phillies fans can be found just about anywhere you look, or listen.

They are waiting in line at the Dunkin’ Donuts, griping about how Ryan Howard’s recent grand slam came with the team already up 12-1—typically empty production from him. They are calling into Philadelphia sports talk radio, trying to talk themselves into Chase Utley as a third baseman and John Mayberry Jr. as an everyday major league outfielder.

And, for now, they are still showing up to the ballpark. Of course they are. 2012’s tickets have already been sold. If you responded to the recent playoff invoice the team sent out, well, hopefully you did not make plans around October baseball at Citizens Bank Park.

In about six weeks, Romney will find out what the electorate thinks of words that he has since admitted were not “elegant.” It is difficult to imagine that he will not pay some price at the polls.

In about six months, RAJ will find out what the ticket-buying public in Philadelphia thinks of the team he created, a team that did not deliver on its promise in 2012. It is difficult to imagine that he will not see fewer season ticket renewals, fewer games sold out before the season even begins…in sum, fewer people willing to buy the 2013 Phillies on faith.

Using the team’s attendance history as a guide, it may not be 2013 that sees the fanbase turn on the Phillies. Even in abbreviated seasons following the 1993 pennant, the Phillies drew over 2 million fans in 1994 and 1995.

But by 1996, the fans had had enough, and the team did not draw over 2 million again until 2003.

So will the fans turn on the team in 2013 if it is another disappointing year?

If not in 2013, then soon enough thereafter.

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Philadelphia Phillies Keep Fighting in Win over Mets and in Their Season

Wednesday night’s 3-2 win over the New York Mets was, for the Philadelphia Phillies, symbolic of the way the 2012 season has gone.

It’s been a long season for the Phillies, and part of that reason has been a very quiet offense. The team is currently ninth in the National League in runs scored.

Even with strong pitching performances from their starters, the bats have not held their end of the bargain, resulting in the Phillies dropping to 13 games under .500 at the All-Star break. For example, Cliff Lee is 22nd in all of Major League Baseball with a 3.27 ERA, but he is 21st on the list of worst run support in the league at 3.89 runs per game. He has only six wins on the season despite some brilliant pitching performances.

A lack of offense and run support was once again the case Wednesday night. Despite Cole Hamels  going six innings and allowing only two runs—with the bullpen pitching another two scoreless innings—the Phillies trailed going into the top of the ninth 2-1.

The offense had mustered up one run on two hits the first eight innings of the game. They forced only three walks. And that lone run? It came on the first at-bat of the game, thanks to a Jimmy Rollins solo home run. It was a long night of dormancy, much like the majority of the season has been.

But the Phillies have come alive lately, going 12-5 in September, breaking .500 and clawing to within four games of the second wild card spot.

They continued to fight Wednesday night.

Down to the team’s last out in the top of the ninth inning, Chase Utley—who didn’t play his first game until June 27—drew a walk on an eight-pitch at-bat.

Then, the struggling Ryan Howard—who didn’t play his first game until July 6 and is hitting a career-low .225—came to the plate. Howard slugged an 0-1 fastball into the upper deck, giving the Phillies a one-run lead, which they would hold on to for the victory.

Just when the Phillies were counted all but out of this game, the team continued to fight and make plays to come from behind.

And that’s really what this season has been about. After all the injuries, after all the losses, after all the trades of big pieces of the lineup, many people looked past the five-time defending NL East champions.

But here they are in September with a chance—albeit a long-shot—at making the postseason for a sixth consecutive season. Guys filled in for those injured, suspended or traded. They made plays. They just kept fighting.

The resiliency they showed against the Mets Wednesday night is the main reason why that win was more than just a feel-good game. That resiliency is why the win had playoff implications for the Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Finishing Miracle Run Could Actually Be a Bad Thing

Wait, what?

No this isn’t a joke, or an anti-Philadelphia Phillies article.

Rather, it’s an analysis of the actual serious possibility that the Phillies would be better off missing the postseason this year, even after their recent surge into contention.

If the Phillies make the playoffs, then the front office can look at this team and say, “Clearly, we have a playoff team here,” which could mean any potential for an offseason overhaul would diminish. The Phillies need to get better this offseason, and if they make the playoffs, they may not make the necessary moves to return to being perennial World Series contenders.

The first move that would be jeopardized by making the playoffs is the future of Charlie Manuel. If the Phillies make the playoffs this year, it will not be because of Manuel. But you can’t fire a manager who is in charge of a team that just pulled off a miracle playoff run.  

Charlie Manuel is a great player’s coach, but when it comes to managing the game, Manuel frequently makes poor decisions with his pitchers and relies too heavily on the long ball instead of playing small ball.

Manuel also shows too much loyalty towards Jimmy Rollins, who, despite his recent hot streak, has no business being the leadoff hitter on a team that has Juan Pierre.

It’s time for a new manager in Philadelphia, but don’t expect that to happen this year.

As it currently stands, the Phillies have talent on their roster—and a lot of it—but there is always room for improvement. Making the playoffs could mask that need for improvement.  

The outfield is the first spot in which the Phillies are in need of some offseason retooling.  

Juan Pierre could be re-signed in the offseason, and Domonic Brown may have earned himself a starting spot in right field for next season, but John Mayberry Jr. is not a major league starting outfielder.

The Phillies need to bring in somebody like Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton to take over center field this offseason; that is a must.

Next, despite Kevin Frandsen’s stellar hitting in his time at third base, he isn’t a viable option to start in the hot corner next year. Philadelphia needs to make a move for a third basemen or move Chase Utley to third and have Freddy Galvis play second base.

The last flaw on the roster that could be hidden by a postseason run is the bullpen, which has been hot of late. A mix of young guns and veteran arms could give the Phillies one of baseball’s better bullpens if they can add some talent in the offseason. The young guys have been strong this year, but not all of them will be on the Opening Day roster in 2013.

Maybe Phillies fans need this team to miss the playoffs.

Yes, it will hurt for a while, but part of what makes Phillies fans so great is that they follow their team year-round. I’m beginning to become fearful that Phillies fans are turning into Yankees fans, and we don’t want that, Philadelphia.  

We don’t want to be spoiled.

We don’t want to only pay attention to the postseason; we want to know the outcome of all 162 games in the regular season, because we know how important each one of those games is.

Don’t get me wrong: If the Phillies make the postseason, I’ll be the first one jumping and screaming for joy.  

But, somewhere deep in my mind, hidden behind the pure joy that a miracle playoff run would bring, would be the thought that maybe, just maybe, making the playoffs was a bad idea.  

 

Follow @TimStoeckle on Twitter

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins Is Having a September to Remember

Jimmy Rollins is having his best month of the season by far here in September and he has been a huge reason for the team’s recent success. Without Jimmy’s clutch performance this month, the Phillies would still be struggling to reach the .500 mark for the season. Now, they find themselves only four games back of a playoff spot.

In September alone, Jimmy is batting .333 with 6 home runs, 11 RBI, 6 stolen bases and 14 runs scored. His OPS in September is his best month by far at 1.389. It’s been a great September for Jimmy Rollins so far, and it’s only September 20th.  

Rollins is proving to be worth every penny of his three year, $33 million dollar deal that made many fans in Philadelphia a bit skeptical. In comparison to other shortstops in the National League, Rollins is third in hits (150), second in doubles (33), third in triples (5), third in home runs (22), second in walks (54) fourth in OPS (.753), second in total bases (259) and first in extra base hits (60).

On the season, Jimmy is batting .253 with 22 home runs, 63 RBI, 30 stolen bases, 22 doubles and an OPS of .746. His WAR in 2012 is 2.4.

Jimmy’s defense has also been top of the line in 2012. His fielding percentage is at .977 and he has only made 13 errors in 146 games played this season.

Rollins has proven once again why he is one of the top shortstops in the National League. Hopefully he can continue his late season success into 2013 and lead the Phillies back to another National League East Championship.

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Philadelphia Phillies: How Will 2012 Late Bloomers Impact 2013?

On July 31^st, the Philadelphia Phillies sold rather than bought at the trade deadline for the first time since 2006. Ruben Amaro essentially raised the white flag on the 2012 season.

In a pair of moves designed to save cash both this year and next, as well as add depth to their depleted farm system, the team traded Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence on the same day.

Coming off a disappointing 3-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, Amaro cut bait. At 45-57, the Phils were out of contention.

Since the trades, the team has gone 29-17, somehow clawing its way back to within four games of the second wild card spot.

It’s likely too little too late as they remain a long shot to make the playoffs (Coolstandings.com currently gives the Phillies a 1.2% chance of playing postseason ball) with four teams that must collapse in front of them, but clearly they’ve turned things around and now sit at .500 with a record of 74-74.

While the team should end up watching October baseball from home for the first time since ‘06, the Phillies may have found some quality pieces that could help the team next year. Erik Kratz, Kevin Frandsen, John Mayberry, Jr., Kyle Kendrick, and Domonic Brown have each played a major role in the team’s recent surge.

Let’s take a look at how they could fit in on the 2013 Phillies.

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Is Phillies’ Amazing Run Enough Proof to Keep the Roster Intact for 2013?

Remember just a few weeks ago when the Philadelphia Phillies traded two-thirds of their starting outfield, were 10 games under .500 and 12 games back in the National League wild card standings?

Well, since the start of August, the Phils have played a lot more like the team that has found themselves in the playoff race each of the past five seasons.

Whether or not the late season resurgence will extend the team’s postseason streak remains to be seen. But that’s not the only thing that is now uncertain following the Phillies’ 28-17 record since the first of August.

Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton were seemingly the first names on what was to be a lengthy list of players whom the Phillies would end up trading by the start of next season. 

Instead, will a late season surge be enough to convince general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. and the rest of the Phils’ front office to keep the roster intact for 2013?

The Phillies may never have been on the verge of heading into full rebuilding mode this offseason no matter how poor the team’s play was at times during the first half. But in order to even re-tool, payroll flexibility would be crucial. Three outfield spots, third base and a bullpen spot or two are all up for grabs for next season, with a majority likely to be filled externally.

What better way to free up payroll then to trade a player whose current contract could potentially pay him over $100 million over the next four seasons?

 

As Jon Heyman on CBSSports.com reported following the non-waiver trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers claimed Cliff Lee and based off of their eventual mega-deal with the Boston Red Sox, would have been willing to take on all of Lee’s salary if both the pitcher and the Phillies had consented.

Lee’s name had been mentioned in trade rumors leading up to the trade deadline, as shown by a tweet from Buster Olney, and his name was likely to appear in talks again during the offseason unless the Phillies managed a second half turnaround.

Well, here we are.

One of the biggest reasons for the Phils’ recent success has been the solid performances turned in by their pitching staff, and Lee is no exception.

After going 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA prior to the All-Star break, Lee has gone 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in the second half.

Phillies’ starters are now tied for fifth in the National League in ERA, and lead the league in strikeouts.

With Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels still in the fold, and a number of starting pitching prospects gradually progressing through the minor leagues, starting pitching was the one area where it seemed the Phillies could deal due to depth.

 

However, the Phils’ recent surge has shown that pitching is still the backbone of the team, and that a rotation featuring Halladay, Hamels and Lee is still capable of leading the squad.

Has Lee and the Phillies’ recent success been enough to resist trading the former Cy Young winner this offseason?

What about Jimmy Rollins?

Few teams would be willing to take on Rollins’ contract, but the Phillies could still have been leaning towards paying a portion of the shortstop’s contract in order to free up the position and the leadoff spot in the batting order. Another tweet by Buster Olney said that the Phillies were at least offering Rollins to teams at the non-waiver deadline.

This season has seen Rollins post numbers that are the lowest of his career in certain areas, and consistent with his career averages in others.

His 90 strikeouts and .314 OBP are not what the Phillies are looking for from their leadoff hitter, while his 21 home runs, 62 RBI and .333 batting average so far in September have helped raise his average on the season to .253.

Although this average is well below his career average, Rollins still has the highest WAR value among NL shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances, according to fangraphs.com.

Furthermore, as John Gonzalez recently wrote on CSNPhilly.com, Chase Utley could be moving to third base in the near future. If the move worked out, Freddy Galvis could then play second base next season. Who would take over at shortstop then, if the Phillies traded Rollins?

 

If Rollins continues to improve, would the Phillies even offer him again this offseason in hopes of splitting his salary with another team?

The Phils‘ bullpen is another area that has slowly, very slowly, begun changing their reputation during the late season run.

After scattering disastrous performances throughout the first half of the season, the bullpen has lowered their ERA to 3.86 on the season, good enough for eighth in the NL. The Phils even have six relievers who currently have an ERA lower than 2.08 in September.

While one or two additions should still be on the to-do list this offseason, a majority of younger pitchers have now pitched themselves into contention for a spot in the 2013 bullpen.

When a team has another deep postseason run as their goal at the start of the season, and must adjust this goal to simply having a .500 record by the halfway point, few players can be considered sure bets to return to the team next season.

However, deciding against pressing the detonate button has paid off for the Phils as they try to continue with their late season run.

But has the run been enough to re-tool primarily through additions during the offseason rather than through subtractions?

The Phillies still clearly need improvements this offseason in order to make another postseason run more of a guarantee. However, this just might take place through current players improving their performances, rather than sending them on their way to new teams.

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25 Most Telling Stats of the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2012 Season

“Train wreck” seems like an appropriate phrase to describe this Philadelphia Phillies club when you think about how things have turned out, but the Phillies have had their good moments this season too. 

They came into the season expecting to be—and expected to be by others—World Series contenders and instead flopped around like fish out of water throughout most of the regular season, only to get hot following the trade deadline and inspire dreams of a wild card berth.  

Sure, they had their excuses. No team is going to cruise through any season with the middle of their lineup and ace on the disabled list for an extended period of time. This game just doesn’t work like that. 

The Phillies probably should have been better than they were, however. The starting pitching, while solid, hasn’t been “elite” (and they’re being paid to be elite). They’ve settled into a comfortable slot just below that. The bullpen has been a disaster at times, and it seems as though any rookie that comes up is shot down pretty quickly. 

But there’s a flip side to that coin as well. The pitching has been excellent at times, and that includes the much maligned bullpen.

Then again, it is hard to score runs for a pitching staff that you expected to be better when you’re replacing several All-Star caliber players with players below the replacement level. But guys like Kevin Frandsen and Erik Kratz have had their time in the sun.

In the end, words are arbitrary. Opinions only go so far. If you really want to know what went wrong (or right) for the Phillies in 2012, let’s have a look at the statistics. 

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Philadelphia Phillies:8 Reasons Fans Should Look Forward to Next Wave of Players

One of the hardest things for a fan to accept is when their team’s winning ways seem to be coming to an end. For the Phillies, as their players age and begin to reach the twilight of their careers, this winning could be coming to an end. As some have already said, the window to win another World Series could be closing and could be closing in as soon as a few years.

With recent successes maybe coming to an end, fans, just like the team, will be going through a transitional period. As new players make their marks with the club, fans will have to adjust to a new style, a new dynamic and a new set of names worth learning.

Change is coming and fans can breathe a sigh of relief because this change will no doubt bring a great deal of excitement to a team and a fanbase that seems to have dwindled. 

The nearly 300 game sellout streak may have ended when the losing began, but the future is bright and will bring a new sellout and winning tradition along with it.

It may not come right away, but it will be in the future. This team is built to make another run in five-ten years and if the prospects coming up are as good as advertised that run could mean championship glory once again.

So sit back, relax and enjoy the future of Phillies baseball.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting Their Offseason

Regardless of how the Phillies’ season ends—whether they finish off this miraculous run or they go home when the regular season ends—Ruben Amaro and company have a lot of work to do.  

They need to find solutions for the outfield, at third base and in the bullpen.  

The Phillies currently have almost $134 million in guaranteed contracts to nine players (or at least their average annual value, the only number that matters when calculating the luxury tax) for 2013. 

With only a few arbitration-eligible candidates—Nate Schierholtz being the most significant—the total cost of payroll for players currently on their roster should not exceed $150 million.  Factoring in the Phillies’ share of MLB’s medical and benefits plan of around $10-$12 million, their starting budget becomes about $162 million. 

With the luxury tax threshold remaining steady at $178 million, the Phillies will likely have less than $20 million to spend in the free-agent market if they are to avoid paying it once again.  However, with the tax increasing to $189 million for the 2014 season, the Phillies ownership group may decide to spend extra money in 2013 with the knowledge they’ll get back under the tax threshold in 2014. 

That is not something any of us fans, nor reporters, have a true grasp on, and until it happens one way or the other it is pure speculation.  If the Phillies decide to exceed the tax threshold in 2013 it could give them the flexibility of spending upwards of $30 million in the free-agent marketplace.  

Considering all options, this is what I see the Phillies doing in their offseason to rebuild the club for the 2013 season.

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Philadelphia Phillies Should Consider Shutting Down Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard’s highly anticipated return following his devastating Achilles tear was the talk across Philadelphia for quite sometime, but once Howard took to the field, it was clear that he was not same player he once was. The injury has definitely left a hitch in Ryan’s step and the Phillies are left with a player they owe a lot of money to in the coming years. $20 million in 2013 and $25 million from 2014-2016 and a 2017 $23 million club option with a $10 million buyout. 

Is Ryan Howard really going to be the difference maker in whether or not the Phillies will make the playoffs in 2012? Probably not. The Phillies should protect their investment, let him sit the remainder of the season and get a head start on rehab for 2013.

Since Howard’s return, he has struggled immensely to make solid, consistent contact. Through 227 at-bats, he is batting a career low .225 with 85 strikeouts. He’s even worse against lefties, hitting just .163. His WAR (wins above replacement), is a -1.0, which in laymen’s sabermetric terms means he is doing more harm than good for the Phillies in 2012.

Also, Ryan has appeared limited in his ability to play first base. His range and mobility are both suffering from the injury and it is costing the Phillies outs. 

Is there any really upside to letting him play at 75%?

Doesn’t seem like it, but if the Phillies somehow pull off a miracle and make the playoffs, by all means, they should let him play. That doesn’t mean he should be playing as much as he has been. Days off are critical to helping muscles heal and by his performance he could use the rest.

The Phillies also brought up Darin Ruf who still hasn’t had a chance to start one game. So much for seeing what you have for next year. They could also have the right-handed hitting Ty Wigginton or John Mayberry spell Ryan at first base against lefties if they are not comfortable with Ruf. Both hit lefties very well, a lot better than Ryan’s .163 mark this season.

Don’t get me wrong, this year is important and there still is a fraction of a chance the Phillies make the playoffs. The fact is that the Phillies owe Ryan Howard a ton of money. Next year, the year after that, and the year after that are much more important than a pipe dream playoff push.

Let’s hear what everyone else thinks.

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