Philadelphia Phillies Should Take a Chance on Roy Halladay This Offseason
Roy Halladay will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and the Philadelphia Phillies should do everything in their power to keep him in Philly.
It’s no surprise that the two-time Cy Young Award winner is progressing quickly after undergoing surgery to repair his severely damaged pitching shoulder:
Past performance may be the best predictor of what to expect in the future, but the last two years of Halladay’s career (a 4.49 ERA in 2012 and an 8.65 ERA in 2013 pre-surgery) are moot. While Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee denied profusely that anything was wrong with the right-hander, Halladay was clearly hurt long before landing on the DL. At times it looked like he was laboring through every pitch.
Doc is 36 so it’s unlikely he’ll have Cy Young stuff again, but considering the doctors’ message that Halladay relayed to David Murphy of The Philadelphia Daily News—specifically that his surgery would “turn back the clock two or three years”—Halladay will have much to offer Philadelphia.
Philadelphia should sign Halladay to a one-year, incentive-laden contract possibly with a vesting option for 2015. Something like Andy Pettitte’s, which includes bonuses for innings pitched and days on the active roster. According to Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Doc wants to stay.
Halladay has been to the All-Star Game eight times and has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting seven times. Oh, and don’t forget this (and this):
Apart from Doc’s clear talent, he’s an unbelievable influence on the rest of Philly’s staff. His work ethic is unparalleled. Seeing as the Phillies have a competent (though painfully inconsistent) group of younger pitchers in Kyle Kendrick, Jonathan Pettibone and Ethan Martin—and top prospect Jesse Biddle waiting in the wings—Philadelphia would be wise to keep the workhorse around so these arms can learn from the best.
Kendrick’s trajectory is a perfect example of what Halladay’s clubhouse presence can mean to the team. While Kendrick has been struggling of late, his gradual improvement in the latter half of his career is noticeable.
In an interview with Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Kendrick noted that Halladay’s 2009 arrival in Philadelphia had the biggest impact on the young right-hander’s pitching career.
As a teammate and a friend, Roy has had the biggest impact on my career, Kendrick said. I feel like there is a respect thing there. I feel like he has a respect for me, and I have a world of respect for him.
No one can see the stuff behind the scenes that I get to see, but I’ve learned to respect how he goes about his business.
This is a guy you want on your team. While Ruben Amaro Jr. should get rid of free agents-to-be Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young sooner rather than later (frankly it’s baffling why he hasn’t yet, but that’s par for the course with Amaro), Halladay is one Phillie he should keep. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote a fantastic long-form piece about the “legend” that is Doc Halladay. If someone unanimously deemed a legend who has new life wants to be on your team, you take him.
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Ranking Potential Landing Spots for Jimmy Rollins
Jimmy Rollins has cleared waivers, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. While he did give a clear reason for his no-trade clause to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, saying, “There are still a couple things I would like to be number one on the lists of in this organization … so until those things are done, I’m not going anywhere,” the shortstop would be better suited in a new uniform.
While teams like the San Diego Padres could really use Rollins, the only way he’d conceivably waive his no-trade clause is if he could go to a contender. Here are three teams, in ascending order, that could vie for the veteran shortstop:
No. 3: New York Yankees
I know it’s silly to call the Yankees a contender at this point, but they’re never out of the race.
After a long career devoid of significant DL stints, Derek Jeter now can’t stay healthy, and the Yankees continue putting nobodies or has-beens out on the field.
Rollins would certainly fit New York’s mold. He’d be an overpaid, past-peak, once-All-Star veteran and would likely be one of the more productive hitters in a lineup that has the fourth-lowest team average and has scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball.
In 2013, New York shortstops are batting .216 with an OPS of .578. While Rollins isn’t even close to the player he used to be, he’s still batting .255 and with a .660 OPS, so he would be an upgrade.
No. 2: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are fighting for any edge they can get in their quest to make it to October. Detroit’s latest winning streak makes it unlikely that the Indians will take the AL Central, but Cleveland’s wild-card hopes are very much alive.
Currently, Cleveland has Asdrubal Cabrera at short, and he’s been abysmal. He sports a .243/.297/.397 line with seven stolen bases and a .694 OPS. While Rollins’ power numbers are a little below Cabrera’s, he’s got nearly twice as many steals and gets on base more.
Defensively is where Cleveland could really use Rollins. In terms of UZR, by all accounts the most comprehensive advanced defensive metric, Cabrera is the worst shortstop in baseball. Rollins’ UZR (supplied by FanGraphs) of minus-1.9 isn’t 2012’s 8.7, but it’s nowhere near as cellar-dwelling as Cabrera’s minus-19.
A colleague of mine actually tweeted at me today inquiring about Rollins:
Well, Rollins certainly hasn’t been good. He’s been a disappointment and a pain in Philadelphia’s side. However, he’d be an improvement over Cabrera in the average, OBP and speed departments, and his defense—while it has declined since last year’s Gold Glove performance—would be a huge help.
No. 1: St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh is soaring and St. Louis is scuffling. And the Cardinals are getting no help from their shortstop.
Yes, he is a defensive wizard at times and is better at fielding his position than most in the game, but his brilliance stops there.
If Cabrera is abysmal, then there must be such a thing as sub-abysmal, and it is reserved for Pete Kozma.
Maybe that’s a little harsh, but his numbers warrant that kind of criticism. His cool .232/.279/.294 line and .573 OPS slot him as the worst in all offense categories on the Cardinals, and he sports the worst average, slugging percentage and OPS of any starting shortstop in baseball. Jimmy Rollins isn’t a premier shortstop anymore, but he’s also not Kozma.
If there’s talk about Rollins potentially going anywhere, most of the chatter has been concentrated in the St. Louis fanbase:
St. Louis needs to pull itself out of its current funk if it wants to take the division over the do-no-wrong Pirates. It certainly has a wealth of young talent to offer Philly’s barren farm system, so if Rollins will entertain a deal, so should Ruben Amaro Jr.
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Can Philadelphia Phillies Salvage Charlie Manuel’s Likely Last Season?
The Philadelphia Phillies are sitting at 50-60 and unable to string together some victories to counter their recent eight-game losing streak. This post-All-Star break downward spiral is yet another piece of evidence that shows why this team needs to abandon its current philosophies and rebuild.
I suppose technically with 52 games left Philadelphia could shock us all with its perennial pinch hitters getting everyday starts and whatnot, but in my mind, the future beholds a sour ending for Charlie Manuel.
This is Manuel’s ninth year as Philadelphia’s manager. He’s almost 70. He may have just quoted Jay-Z on the record in answering looming questions about his future with the Phillies, but youth is not something that he brings to this franchise.
Jordan Raanan of NJ.com said while Manuel’s time is definitely up in Philadelphia, the team’s current conundrum is not his fault:
Clearly he didn’t all of a sudden become a bad manager. It’s just that the same moves he made several years ago aren’t working anymore. It almost certainly has more to do with the players on his roster rather than the man calling the shots.
Manuel echoes this sentiment.
Put simply, the Phillies haven’t been playing good baseball. And seeing as Manuel is in the final year of his contract with third base coach Ryne Sandberg waiting in the wings to likely take over managerial duties, he’s not sugar-coating anything. In an interview with Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Manuel didn’t hold back:
I think we’re a ways off. That’s what I think. I know what we’ve had for two years. Every year, really. We are players off.
Don’t get me wrong; I still have faith in our players. I’m a manager and I believe that we can win…but when I look out there and I see how we play, I also have to be realistic.
What do you do when you’re reloading and not rebuilding quite yet? Because Ruben Amaro Jr. is stubborn and won’t admit complete defeat, he’s going with what stings less—bringing up the young guys.
And the Phillies have done that. They’ve given a bunch of starts to the now-injured Johnathan Pettibone and brought up pitching prospect Ethan Martin. Darin Ruf is now an everyday outfielder (and keep in mind that he’s naturally a first baseman), and Cody Asche is in the hot corner.
Philadelphia’s most blaring issue is its outfield. From every vantage point, it can’t be improved.
Of Philly’s top 20 prospects, outfielders are in High-A or below. The fact that the Phillies’ farm system is so dry wouldn’t be of as much concern if we were seeing Ben Revere, Domonic Brown and Ruf take the outfield, but instead it’s Ruf, Delmon Young and John Mayberry Jr.
Assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said in an interview with Chris Branch of Courier-Post on July 20th that “Nix can play in center field if he has to. (Kevin) Frandsen could play some outfield. He’s done that before. (John) McDonald can play all over the place. I think we’re in pretty good shape. Everybody should be well-rested. We’re good to go.”
“Good shape” with Laynce Nix in center is telling enough.
Branch also added that “at the major-league level, Frandsen and McDonald have a combined 13 games experience playing the outfield.”
At this point, there’s really nothing more the Phillies can do to leave a positive lasting impression on good old Chawlie. They’ve given shots to young relievers like Jake Diekman and Justin De Fratus. They’re playing Ruf everyday. They’re even trying to turn second baseman Cesar Hernandez into an outfielder.
For now, the Phillies can hope that Amaro gets it right with the waiver wire after bombing at the trade deadline.
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How Philadelphia Phillies Can Go from Bad Trade Deadline to Good Waiver Wire
The Philadelphia Phillies were a complete bust at the trade deadline. When word surfaced that Ruben Amaro Jr. might be willing to shop perennial trade deadline frequenter Cliff Lee (even with Amaro‘s wildly unreasonable expectations of what he could get in return), it almost seemed like Philly was finally waving the white flag.
While complete silence ensued, the Phillies could still end up making some moves in August due to the bloated contracts of their most coveted trade chips.
Michael Young
This was the biggest surprise of the deadline. Young was drawing interest from a number of teams—especially the Yankees at the last minute. Shockingly, Amaro was asking for too much, reported CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman.
Still, he’s the most likely to go in August. There’s a reason why Matt Snyder of CBS Sports used Young as an example of the waivers process in his most recent article.
Young has a no-trade clause, but is willing to waive it in a few cases:
Snyder also reports that Young would accept a trade to the Yankees.
Plenty of teams have a need for Young and would be willing to shell out the cash. There’s a good chance he’ll clear waivers due to his salary of $16 million, so he’ll then land back on the trade market. Since MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reported that Texas likely won’t trade for Young and the Yankees were ready to make an offer, look for further New York negotiations in the not so distant future.
Seeing as the Phillies just brought up prospect Cody Asche to play third, which moved Young over to first, it doesn’t seem like Philly is set on keeping Young.
Carlos Ruiz
The Yankees are also interested in Chooch:
While Chooch is not the most expensive (he’s making $5 million) compared to other Phillies, he is relative to someone like Kelly Shoppach.
While New York made the latest inquiry, the St. Louis Cardinals would be wise to look into the Panamanian catcher.
St. Louis couldn’t do much backstop-wise before the deadline, seeing that All-Star and MVP candidate Yadier Molina only just landed on the DL, but as the Cardinals have found themselves two-and-a-half games back in the National League Central and are without their premier game-caller, they’re now desperately in need of someone to fill the hole.
If Chooch clears waivers, St. Louis has many prospects to offer the Phils. They wouldn’t give up someone like Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez, considering Ruiz has been a dud offensively this year (.248/.298/.293), but Ruiz is one of the better game-callers in baseball, and Cardinals pitching is obviously used to good defense behind the dish. St. Louis should give up someone for Chooch if they want to compete with the red-hot Pirates.
Chase Utley
While the Phillies have recently been talking about a new $13 million a year Utley deal (three years or two years and a vesting option for a third), according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Phils should still place him on waivers. Yes, he’s a fan favorite and the face of the franchise and all of that mushy stuff, but contenders could use the DL king more at this point.
Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that Philly should build around Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon—no mention of the second baseman.
David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote today, “The decisions that Amaro and Co. have made have created a lineup that will be nearly impossible to improve if Utley returns to it.”
Utley currently makes $15,285,714, so he’d likely clear waivers. The soaring Los Angeles Dodgers would be a great fit for him.
For starters, Utley is a California boy at heart. He went to UCLA and thrives in that environment.
Secondly, the Dodgers would surely benefit from an upgrade at second.
Utley’s power numbers are creeping back up this season. (As Murphy writes, “10.4 percent of his plate appearances ending in extra-base hits, compared with 8.3 percent from 2009-12, a home run every 21.9 at-bats, compared with 24.6 over the previous four seasons.”) They would definitely be a step up from Mark Ellis (.360 slugging and a .684 OPS compared to Utley’s .505 and .845) and Nick Punto (pretty worthless).
The Phillies have guys like Cesar Hernandez (he can discontinue his outfield experiment if need be) and Freddy Galvis they can plug in at second if need be, and they could look to receive a Dee Gordon or Joc Pederson from L.A.
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Philadelphia Phillies Prospects Who Deserve A Shot Sooner Rather Than Later
The lackluster Philadelphia Phillies are old, to put it bluntly. The addition of Ben Revere was a nice shot of youth to the aging lineup, but he caught the oh-so-familiar injury bug. While the playoffs are a long shot for the Phillies this year, there are a few young talents in the farm system that should see some time in the bigs as soon as roster spots open up.
Cesar Hernandez
Hernandez, a natural second baseman, is currently undergoing a significant transformation. Due to Philadelphia’s sudden hole in center, management has accelerated the Venezuela native’s transition to the outfield.
Stephen Planovich of MLB.com writes that while Hernandez is quick and athletic, errors have plagued him thus far in the outfield experiment. That being said, Hernandez finds himself needing to undergo an entire mindset shift, so naturally there will be a learning curve.
According to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies were initially trying the 22-year-old in center in preparation for 2014, seeing as he’ll be put on waivers if he doesn’t make the team next year.
Between Lehigh Valley and Reading this year, the switch-hitting Hernandez has posted an impressive .316/.379/.414 line and is cranking up the power numbers lately with Reading. He’s also earned some accolades:
While Hernandez is only ranked No. 18 by MLB.com in Philadelphia’s minor league system, he’s shown that he can hold his own in the majors, as he batted .250 in nine games for the Phillies back in June. Once he irons out the kinks in the outfield, expect to see Hernandez on the big league roster.
Cody Asche
While the 22-year-old Asche got off to a fairly slow start, Hernandez’s fellow International League All-Star has been mashing it in lately for the Iron Pigs:
The third baseman—ranked No. 9 in Philadelphia’s system by MLB.com—is currently posting a .292/.350/.463 line with an .813 OPS, but in his last 10 games he’s batting a scorching .357 and slugging .643 with a 1.029 OPS.
Not only does he have power (12 bombs so far), he’s got speed to boot (11 steals). Since Philadelphia’s 13-run eruption against the Mets on July 19th, its offense has been anemic and needs a spark. Asche could be that spark.
In an interview with Michael Lore of lehighvalleylive.com, director of player development Joe Jordan said that Asche has “gotten better and honestly, I would feel confident with him going to the major leagues as a third baseman and as a hitter. I think he’s proven we have something pretty good.”
Seeing as the Phils could move Michael Young in the near future—and Kevin Frandsen is likely not a long-term solution—Asche may not have to wait long to see time in the bigs.
Ethan Martin
Ranked No.2 in the Phillies’ minor league system, Martin is an interesting case. While Reading’s Jesse Biddle may be the better natural talent, Martin is more experienced and is playing at a higher level.
For the year, the 23-year-old righty has gone 11-5 with a 4.35 ERA, .229 batting average against and 99 strikeouts in 20 games (109.2 innings pitched).
While his fastball in the upper 90s is plus, Martin’s control is suspect—his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an unfortunate 1.55:1.
Like Asche, however, Martin has improved as the season’s gone on:
In his last 10 games, Martin has pitched to the tune of a 3.45 ERA with a .210 batting average against. His walks have still been cause for concern and the Phillies need anything but another guy who can’t find the strike zone, but the potential is there.
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Phillies Trade Rumors: What Should Philadelphia Do With Michael Young?
With yet another drop below the .500 mark and another DL trip for one of their relief pitchers, the Philadelphia Phillies are seeing their likelihood of making the postseason take a turn for the worse.
Whether they’ll be buyers or sellers is still up in the air (despite Ruben Amaro Jr.’s insistence on the former there’s still ambivalence), but what’s clearer is that Michael Young probably won’t be in red pinstripes much longer.
While Young has been fairly productive (slash line of .283/.346/.413 and is hitting .315 with five home runs and 20 RBI since June 1, according to ESPN’s Doug Mittler), they don’t need him.
In an interview with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, an NL executive stated that “They could plug in Kevin Frandsen, and there wouldn’t be that much dropoff at all.”
Much of baseball perceives Young to be a lucrative trade chip. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted this last week:
Even if nothing materializes in the next week, that doesn’t mean Young is staying put.
According to Heyman in the previously cited article, “Young makes $16 million in the last year of an $80 million deal, so it’s possible he could clear waivers and be traded after the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. He has a complete no-trade, which he received as part of his deal to accept the trade from Texas to Philly.”
According to Mark Feinsand of New York Daily News, a trade involving Young and Joba Chamberlain could be a possibility, which would certainly be an economical route, a road less traveled in Philadelphia (see Howard, Ryan).
If not Chamberlain, though, the Yankees don’t really have anyone to offer. Their farm system isn’t known for producing spectacular talent, and most current New York prospects aren’t due up until 2015 at the earliest.
While the Yankees may be a viable destination, there have also been reports that the Boston Red Sox are also actively pursuing the third baseman:
The BoSox need someone in the hot corner and have a better shot at the postseason than the Yankees. The Phillies have holes in the outfield and Boston has both mid- and upper-level prospects—Jackie Bradley and Bryce Brentz for example—that could fill them.
Rosenthal also indicated that the Cincinnati Reds are a possible target.
Cincy’s slew of injuries makes it an eager shopper. Obviously the Reds won’t be giving up Billy Hamilton, but they have a group of talented pitchers that could help Philly’s relief needs. That being said, none of them will break into the bigs anytime soon.
With all of this in mind, Boston should be the frontrunner. Now we just have to see if Amaro will budge.
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Domonic Brown Becomes Philadelphia’s Best Hitter with a New Swing
Big Brown—one of Ryan Howard‘s many nicknames—was bestowed upon the first baseman during his reign as the Philadelphia Phillies‘ best power hitter. Now a changing of the guard is in order. Big Brown Part Deux: The Real Big Brown is already underway.
Not too long ago, Domonic Brown appeared to be a bust. Despite being named the fourth-best prospect in baseball by Baseball America after the 2010 season, Brown scuttled early on.
Not to mention that the DL seemed to call to Brown like a siren. First he suffered a hamate bone fracture in 2011 that required surgery. Then it was a slew of nagging muscle issues in 2012.
In the first three years of his career, Brown hit a mediocre .230/.302/.381. In his 433 at-bats, he hit 12 homers. That’s one homer per 36.1 at-bats. Now I’d say he’s just a tad better. Brown is currently batting .272/.306/.549 with 15 bombs. In 195 at-bats. Overall, that’s a homer per 13 at-bats. In the month of May, that number drops to a home run per nine at-bats.
I’ll do my due diligence and note that Brown’s OBP is still pretty bad. And there’s a clear reason for this. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb, Brown walked exactly zero times in May. Before last night’s game, MLB Stat of the Day tweeted that Brown could go into the record books (which he did):
However, considering the Phillies Paradox (the team has one of the most anemic offenses in baseball despite playing in a hitter’s haven), this is a tradeoff the team is willing to take.
On Wednesday night—the day after he was named National League Player of the Week—Brown hit two jacks to lead the Phillies over the Boston Red Sox, 4-3. Gelb tweeted this during the game:
But Brown’s May heroics didn’t stop there. Last night, he raised his home run total in the month to 12 with another pair of bombs against the Milwaukee Brewers. That’s seven in seven days. Brown now has 15 dingers, which leads the NL.
Brown’s improvement may be due to a number of things. Maturation and playing everyday are certainly valid possibilities. In this case, however, something quite tangible is the culprit: his swing.
In an interview with Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly, Brown noted that he is cognizant of the fact that his recent success is due to the changes he’s made at the plate.
“I think I just had a longer swing, now that I’m looking back on it,” Brown said. “I did a lot to my swing to shorten it up, especially in those good hitter’s counts, just being able to be short and quick to the ball.
The differences are slight but significant. Here is Brown flailing at a high fastball during spring training in 2012:
Now look at the much-improved Brown hit a game-tying single against the Arizona Diamondbacks just a couple of weeks ago:
Brown’s quick hands are a by-product of his new approach. In this instance, they enabled him to fight off a tough pitch and knock it in the gap between shortstop and third base. Brown’s 2012 swing would’ve likely had him undercutting this pitch, resulting in one of those big whiffs Philadelphia has learned to endure.
In an interview with the Philadelphia Daily News’ Ryan Lawrence, Chase Utley—who champions the short swing—noted that he has picked up on Brown’s shift.
“It’s noticeable. I think he’s in more control than he has been in the past. He’s made some adjustments in his stance, where his hands are, and that’s probably allowed him to be a little quicker to the baseball, shorter to the baseball.”
So we know Brown can perform when it counts. He has the ever-coveted intangibles. But he also measures up when it comes to good old statistics. Out of the Phillies with 50 or more at-bats (and this is being quite generous), Brown leads the team (or is tied for the lead) in six offensive categories: batting average (.272, tied with Utley), runs (25 to the second-most 21), home runs (15 to the second-most seven), RBI (36 to the second-most 26), slugging percentage (.549 to the second-highest .475), and OPS (.855 to the second-highest .814). And four of these said “second” spots are held by none other than the DL King himself, Mr. Utley. So if we had been going by active players here, Brown’s stats would’ve distanced himself even further from the pack.
Just for kicks, Brown is also only a smidge behind the team leaders in hits and doubles.
Other vast improvements for Brown are his splits. As is typically the case with lefties, Brown struggled mightily against lefty arms early in his career. Before this season, Brown was batting .184 against lefties and .244 against righties. Reminiscent of Howard’s early numbers (Big Brown numero uno was .179 against lefties and .329 against righties in his first three years). In 2013—and this is not a typo—Brown is hitting .326 against lefties and .255 against righties. His improved swing working in tandem with improved vision show to be a lethal combination.
*All statistics are accurate as of May 31.
**All statistics are from espn.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and MLB.com
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