Philadelphia Phillies: Top 10 Players To Fill Holes In Outfield After 2011

I know that it is way to early to be thinking about the 2012 season, as the 2011 season has not even started yet, or is it? Some teams as of right now know that they will not have a chance for the World Series, and some of those teams are probably already eying players who are due to hit the free agent market after the conclusion of the current season. It is wise for all teams to look at this point in time at the holes that may be left in their current roster after this season and see who will fit into that hole.

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies lost Jayson Werth to free agency, which has left a big question mark in the Phillies lineup to see who will replace Werth. Initially, there was talk about seeking the free agents to fill this hole. Names like Matt Diaz, Jeff Francoeur, and, the much coveted, Carl Crawford. The potential for all of these players sifted away when the Phillies signed Cliff Lee, which is perfectly fine with me and most Phillies fans.

In this coming offseason, Raul Ibanez is due for his contract to expire. Ibanez may be turning 39 years-old in June, but he still proved to be within the top three offensive producers for the Phillies in 2010, with the second highest on-base percentage following the All-Star break. So will the Phillies resign him or let himgo and find an in house replacement or seek free agency.

This list will contain outfielders that are due for free agency or are within the Phillies organization already that could fill the hole in the outfield.

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Philadelphia Phillies: If They Only Keep One, Roy Oswalt or Jimmy Rollins?

For the 2012 season, it should be a reasonable assumption that the Philadelphia Phillies will contain both Jimmy Rollins and Roy Oswalt.  In 2010, Rollins had a down year due to the fact that he spent nearly half of the season on the disabled list.  However, it is safe to assume that he will return to form in 2010.

Rollins is a veteran and a star, and he knows what is at stake this year.  This could be the only opportunity that he will have to play with a rotation of this caliber, and, beyond the chances of a repeat of a World Series championship, his career is also at stake, as this is the last year of his contract.

Oswalt is a proven ace, who still has yet to lose a game in Citizens Bank Park as a Phillie.  He still ranks as one of the top pitchers currently in baseball and finds himself among the best rotation that exists in baseball today.  At the end of the 2011 season, there is a mutual $16 million option to stay with the Phillies for the 2012 season.  If that option is not taken by either party, we will likely see Oswalt retire, although I think that he would take a serious pay cut to stay with the Phillies before he actually retired.

Rollins will produce a season much more like his 2008 and 2009 seasons to ensure his longevity with the Phillies organization, and Oswalt will continue to hand his command on the mound for this coming season.  Expect both of these players to have great 2011 seasons and be on the Phillies roster for 2012.

However, for the sake of argument, let us assume that the Phillies can only or will only spend the amount of money to keep both of these players.  Which of these players has more to offer to the organization and would be more worth paying to keep as a Phillie?  I think that if we examine the 2010 season, we can assume that Oswalt brings a talent to the organization that would be harder to replace than it would be to replace the talent that Rollins brings.

We saw a 2010 season where Rollins was missing from nearly half of it.  Of 162 regular season games, Rollins played in 88 of those games.  Even with Rollins missing half of the season, the Phillies had the best regular season record in all of baseball.  It would be much more difficult and expensive to find a replacement for Oswalt than it would be for Rollins, especially since the Phillies could look within their own organization to find some to replace Rollins who could produce very comparable numbers.

I am, of course, speaking of Wilson Valdez.  Valdez sometimes gets criticized for not producing offensively, but this is not quite fair.  Valdez may have less ability to hit home runs or steal bases than Rollins, but he still is quite able to do so.  Valdez filled in for Rollins a lot this season, having played in 111 games, still not quite the numbers for a full season, so his numbers would be north of where they were had he been an everyday starter.

That being said, Valdez had seven stolen bases and was never caught in 2010.  He also hit four homeruns.  With stolen bases, Rollins had 17 and was caught once, so Valdez is not quite to Rollin’s ability, but they compare more closely when it comes to other aspects of batting.

Rollins batted for an average of .243 with 41 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .320 and a slugging percentage of .374.  Valdez, on the other hand, batted for an average of .258 with 35 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .306 and a slugging percentage of .360.  I should also mention that Rollins made $8.5 million in 2010, whereas Valdez only made $400,000.  Valdez is only entering his sixth year as a professional player—although he is technically six months older than Rollins—and will not be eligible for free agency until after this season.

When comparing Oswalt to the rest of the pitching in the majors, he was eighth with ERA, second with WHIP, 18th with strikeouts and 33rd with wins; however, that last stat would likely have been higher if he had not played the first half of the season in Houston.  Oswalt’s 2010 stats were a 2.76 ERA, 13-13 Record, 193 strikeouts, 55 walks, and a 1.03 WHIP.  With the starting pitcher free agents who are due to hit the market after the 2011 season, only two pitchers can really compare to Oswalt, Chris Carpenter and Cole Hamels.

Even if the Phillies went the route of trying to sign a free agent to replace Oswalt, they would be paying top dollar to replace him or, more likely, sign someone who does not really hold a candle light to what they could get out of Oswalt.  If the Phillies tried to trade for someone to replace Oswalt, the cost would likely be too great to either the everyday starters or the farm system.  Rollins could be replaced from within at a fraction of the cost and see similar results.

Oswalt would not be nearly as easy to replace, not that replacing Rollins is easy, and finding one from within may be difficult.  Vance Worley has potential, but I will not claim that he is Oswalt’s caliber until he proves it, nor would I bet on it.  Oswalt is a quality pitcher that is rarely found in baseball, especially at his consistency.

Overall, the Phillies would be better off with keeping Oswalt and letting Rollins go than they would be if they kept Rollins and let Oswalt go.  I would expect both players to remain a Phillie, but if we could only pick one, Oswalt is the better option for the team to keep.

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Raul Ibanez: A Top Ranking Offensive Tool But A Subject Of Unjustified Criticism

When people take a look at the roster of the Philadelphia Phillies, there are certain players that are often targeted with criticism. I find that much of this criticism is unfounded against most of the players. Right now the Phillies are perhaps the strongest, or at least almost the strongest, that they have ever been.

Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge have often been the target of criticism, especially after last season. Utley and Rollins both spent a large amount of time on the disabled list, which caused them to have down years. Some of the critics claim that this trend will continue, but I would not count them out. 

One down year does not mean that the following years will be of the same caliber. I would expect both Utley and Rollins to have bounce-back years for this coming season. Lidge had a down year early in 2010 but showed strength and great improvement in the second half of the season. Lidge should be on form again come spring time.

Another subject of criticism has often been Raul Ibanez for whatever reason. Early last year, Ibanez was showing the signs of a down year, but he recovered during the second half of the season. In fact, following the All-Star break, Ibanez was second on the Phillies in on-base percentage. 

So how does Ibanez rank when compared to the rest of the Phillies?

Offense is needed in Philadelphia, although perhaps less so now that the Phillies have the best rotation, which was strengthened by the addition of Cliff Lee. That being said, Ibanez did hold his weight at the plate in 2010 to help support the seventh-best offense in the majors. 

Besides his on-base percentage for the second half of the year, Ibanez was fourth in the number of home runs on the Phillies, and third if you remove Jayson Werth, who will be playing for the Washington Nationals for the next seven years.

Ibanez was also third with the number of runs batted in, which would be second without Werth. Ibanez also was second in doubles for the Phillies, lagging only behind Werth again. Overall, offensively, Ibanez had 16 home runs and 83 RBIs with a batting average of .275, an on-base percentage of .349 and a slugging percentage of .444.

Ibanez was also fourth in total bags, second in walks, third in hits, second in triples and fifth in runs, and he followed Werth in each of these categories except triples. 

Although analyzing these numbers shows how much production will be missed by Werth, it also shows that Ibanez produced numbers very comparable to the production of the departed outfielder.

With what the Phillies will be missing from Werth, I predict that Ben Francisco will be able to almost entirely make up for Werth’s offensive production once he wins the full-time starting position this spring (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/561129-cliff-was-werth-it-francisco-can-fill-the-hole-in-the-lineup-and-outfield).

Besides performing better than Werth with the number of triples, Ibanez was also better than Werth with the number of strikeouts, having about 40 less. Although those are impressive numbers, Ibanez also performed much better than Werth when it often counts, batting with runners in scoring position. 

Ibanez’s batting average with runners in scoring position was .304, whereas Werth’s batting average with runners in scoring position was .186.

This is partially why I think that Francisco is the perfect fill for Werth. Francisco will not be able to compare to Werth’s home run production, but everything will be nearly the same production that was seen from Werth. 

Francisco had a third of the at-bats of Werth and produced exactly a third of the numbers that Werth did, excepting home runs. However, Francisco will make up for Werth’s homeruns by the fact that Francisco’s batting average with runners in scoring position was .306 (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/564556-risp-a-key-factor-in-determining-philadelphia-phillies-wins-or-losses).

This article is not about Francisco filling in for Werth. It is about Ibanez and what production he brings to the Phillies. 

In the second half of the season, Ibanez improved his batting average by .066, his on-base percentage by .049, his slugging percentage by .097, and his OPS by .146.  Although his yearly numbers for these respective categories were .275, .349, .444, and .793, those numbers were .309, .375, .494 and .869 after the All-Star break.

If Ibanez can continue to produce the numbers that he did in 2010, particularly the numbers produced in the second half of the season, he will be well worth the $11.5 million he is due by the Phillies this season. 

Ibanez is going to be turning 39-years-old in June, and this is the last year of his current contract with the Phillies. Overall, he ranks towards the top of all of the Phillies in offensive production, and any criticism that he receives is unjustified when he is compared to the rest of the team. 

His future is unknown, but if his production continues to rank towards the top of the Phillies’ team overall, I would like to see him stay with the organization.

Ibanez’s numbers have consistently ranked him towards the top of the list for the Phillies’ offensive production, but critics still have negative things to say. However, there seems to really be only one number that stands against Ibanez: his age.

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Ryan Howard: Despite a Shorter 2010 Season, Reigns Above the NL East Offensively

In the 2010 season, the first basemen of the Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard, spent a great deal of time on the disabled list.  When doing the math by analyzing the innings played, it shows that Howard played in about seventeen fewer games in 2010 than he did in 2009. 

Of 162 games, missing seventeen games does not sound like that much. Howard usually plays well over 150 games per year.  In 2008, Howard started 156 games and 155 in 2009.  With the injury, Howard only started 139 games in 2010.

Even with missing so much time during the 2010 season, he still produced numbers better than most other players in baseball.  Of 1000+ baseball players, Howard produced numbers good enough for him being tied at 14th rank with the number of home runs. He was 11th in the number of runs batted-in. 

Howard was also ranked 49th for on-base percentage, 25th in slugging percentage and 29th in OPS.

Howard had a very productive season in 2010, although it was certainly not his peak year, that we can blame on the time he missed from injury. 

He did hit for an average of .276 with 31 home runs and 108 runs batted-in.  His on-base percentage was .353 and his slugging percentage was .505 with 152 hits and 59 walks.  He also had 157 strikeouts, which is at a ratio of about a two-percent improvement.

Howard’s numbers were good enough, even with missing all of the time from injury, to be the best and most productive first basemen in the NL East Division.  When comparing Howard to the other first basemen in the NL East, the only player that can actually challenge Howard’s numbers, according to the stats of 2010, is Adam LaRoche.

LaRoche, who was not in the NL East in 2010, batted for an average of .261 with 25 home runs and 100 runs batted-in.  His on-base percentage was .320 with a slugging percentage of .468.

However, LaRoche was still lagging behind the numbers of Howard even though Howard started about 17 less games than usual and less games than LaRoche had played. 

When comparing Howard to LaRoche, it is easy to see that Howard will provide more offense to the team.  Howard beats LaRoche in batting average, home runs, RBIs, on base percentage, slugging percentage and stolen bases. Although neither are particularly a threat to run. 

On the defensive side of the field, they were both credited with the same number of double plays.  LaRoche had a few less errors, but you can expect the same from these two players defensively.

Howard and LaRoche produced similar numbers in 2010.  Although Howard did not beat LaRoche’s numbers all that significantly, that wouldn’t have been true if we were talking about a season that Howard played the entirety of. 

Either way, Howard is the most productive first basemen of the NL East, followed by LaRoche.  The other three first basemen follow these two further down the line.

The New York Mets have Ike Davis and the Florida Marlins have Gaby Sanchez for their role in first base.  These two players are coming off of productive 2010 seasons, but they cannot compare to the top, Howard or LaRoche. 

The Atlanta Braves have Freddie Freeman for first base, but it is hard to speculate how he will fair in 2011 since he is only 21-years-old and has only had 24 major league at bats. 

In those at bats, he had four hits including a double and home run, but only an average of .167. Seeing how Freeman will fare in 2011 will be interesting, but as of right now, I will predict that he will not produce numbers that can compare to Howard, which I think is a pretty safe prediction.

Davis batted for an average of .264 with 19 home runs and 71 RBIs.  He had an on-base percentage of .351 and a slugging average of .440.  Sanchez had an average of .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBIs.  He had an on-base percentage of .341 and a slugging average of .448.

As these numbers show and Howard continues to prove, he is one of the best offensive producers in baseball, and he is, undoubtedly, the best first basemen that will be found in the NL East for at least the 2011 MLB season. 

If Howard stays healthy, which would be safe to presume about this season, he will certainly shine above the rest of the NL East at first base and most other players in baseball like he has in seasons past.  Howard can afford to play less then 15 games than usual, and still reign towards the top of offensive productivity.

Not only is Howard the most productive first basemen, but he is also the top producer of those who remain in the NL East Division. With the rosters currently set the way they are in the NL East, with all players included, Howard was second with the number of home runs and first with RBIs.

In the NL East, Howard is one of only three players with over 100 RBIs, where the rest of the RBI leaders did not cross 85 RBIs last season.

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NL East Rankings: The Top 5 Of Each Position Player

So much attention has been placed onto the offseason acquiring of Cliff Lee by the Philadelphia Phillies, and rightly so as that gave the Phillies not only easily the best rotation in the NL East but also the best rotation that baseball has seen in at least a decade. The acquiring of Cliff Lee has made the Phillies a favorite for the National League and the World Series, but there are 162 games before the playoffs.

The 2010 World Series winner got into the playoffs through the back door, barely getting in at all. Once October baseball starts, pitching is the most important part, which was seen by the San Francisco Giants, but it still requires offense to win games. The Giants had the seventeenth best offense in 2010 but the first best pitching. Pitching can be almost everything, but it can never be all a team needs. We will look at the NL East teams and see where the position players rank in their division for both offense and defense.

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MLB Power Rankings:The 2011 Phillies and the 10 Biggest Preseason Favorites Ever

Offseason transactions through the history of baseball has often caused a hype for a team’s favor before the season even starts.

Sometimes this hype over a team is created by these transactions, and sometimes this hype can come just from the team’s performance the year before. Sometime it is the combination of both these factors that lead to a mania in favor of one team winning the World Series. We have seen that beginning this year with the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies who acquired Cliff Lee this offseason.

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Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen: Madson Reigns as Phillies’ Best Relief

With less than four weeks until pitchers and catchers are to report, the Philadelphia Phillies have already established the best rotation in baseball, and that is without knowing with a certainty that the fifth starter will be Joe Blanton or Kyle Kendrick. 

As of yesterday, Kendrick signed a one-year contract for $2.45 million, and Blanton is signed through the 2012 season being owed $17 million.  A lot of people had suspected that the Phillies would trade Blanton in order to free up some salary room after having signed Cliff Lee, as the Phillies are locked in at about $15 million more than what they had expected for 2011.  GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. stated that he does not feel comfortable dealing Blanton right now, and, honestly, there is no hurry to do so.

Dealing Blanton is still a definite possibility, if the proper situation arises, but Amaro is not actively seeking a deal.  If a team, such as the Minnesota Twins if they were unable to resign Carl Pavano, desires Blanton, there very well could be a trade, but there are no dealings currently on the table. 

That being said, Kendrick and Blanton were both starters in 2010 (see article on Blanton and Kendrick here: http://tinyurl.com/6e9p244), but Blanton will take the fifth spot in the starting rotation if he remains a Phillie, which will leave Kendrick coming out of the bullpen.

With Blanton being the fifth starter, the Phillies currently have Ryan Madson, Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Jose Contreras and Kyle Kendrick, with Brad Lidge as the closing pitcher.  Kendrick is easily the youngest of the six pitchers in the bullpen, being the only one under 30 at the age of 26.  The rest of the pitchers are 30, 33, 34, 39 and 34, respectively.

The bullpen is certainly on the older side, and the performance of the bullpen has always been a question mark for the Phillies.  Looking at their statistics, Madson reigns easily above the rest, even though the numbers for Kendrick for 2010 are his numbers from starting, not relieving.

Their statistics show:

	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB	W-L	IP	S	K	H-BB
Madson	2.55	1.04	10.87	4.92	6-2	53	5	64	42-13
Baez	5.48	1.64	5.29	1.22	3-4	47.2	0	28	55-23
Romero	3.68	1.61	6.87	.97	1-0	36.2	3	28	30-29
Contreras	3.34	1.22	9.05	3.56	6-4	56.2	4	57	53-16
Kendrick	4.73	1.37	4.19	1.71	11-10	180.2	0	84	199-49
Lidge	2.96	1.23	10.25	2.17	1-1	45.2	27	52	32-24

 

Of all of the relievers, Madson had the second most innings pitched in 2010, with the best ratio of walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP), most strikeouts per nine innings, most strikeouts per walk, most strikeouts and fewest walks (excluding Kendrick since he was a starter) and, most importantly, he allowed the fewest earned runs for the best ERA.

Madson is the future of the Phillies bullpen, and, since his contract expires after this season, it would be of the team’s best interest to extend his contract soon.  He is young and the best producing reliever on the team, and his numbers made great improvements in 2010, which shows he is growing as a pitcher. Overall, Madson has proven that he is a reliable and dependable pitcher, more so than any of the other relief options that the Phillies have to offer.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons Rollins, Utley Will Return to Form in 2011

Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley make up a deadly combination in the middle of the infield. Both of these players are dynamic in the field and at the plate. However, both of these players are coming off of a season that does not show their best performances. That being said, Rollins and Utley have shown some signs of growth as players, and they will be back to their normal caliber, or perhaps better, for 2011 if they can both avoid the disabled list where both spent a great deal of time in 2010.

Expect Rollins and Utley to have a bounce back year in 2011.

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MLB Rumors: 10 Reasons Phillies Can’t Risk Playing Hard Ball with Cole Hamels

With the Philadelphia Phillies picking up Cliff Lee in a deal that shocked all of baseball last month, there has been a lot of talk about the how good the Phillies current rotation is, which ranks probably within the best five rotations in baseball history. The 2011 Phillies rotation compares to the rotations of the Atlanta Braves from the mid-1990s, the 1971 Orioles with Jim Palmer, and the 1966 Dodgers with Sandy Koufax.

Sadly for the Phillies fans, this rotation has a life of probably no more than two years. After the 2011 season, two of the pitchers of this potentially legendary rotation could be seeking new contracts. Cole Hamels’ contract ends after this season, and Roy Oswalt has a $16 million club option for the 2012 season. It is possible that the option might occur for 2012, but he is only 33 and may be seeking a multi-year contract following 2011.

Assuming that Oswalt will be looking for an opportunity following 2011 to find a multi-year deal to retire with, it is vitally important for the Phillies to sign Hamels to a contract very soon in order to avoid a contract war. Hamels is not eligible to be a free agent until after the season of 2012, but he is due arbitration following this coming season, which would put his value much higher than his current contract. The 2010-2011 offseason has seen a great deal of pitcher changes, and the Phillies need to insure soon that Hamels is not among that list for next season.

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RISP Factor: A Key Element in Determining Philadelphia Phillies’ Wins or Losses

Since the Washington Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a mega deal for $126 million over seven years in December, the Philadelphia Phllies lost Werth’s ability to hit for power, which is a valuable asset to have in a player.  However, power is not necessarily what makes or breaks a team.  Many teams are very successful by playing small ball baseball or contact hitting.

A player does not need to swing for the fences every time he steps up to the plate.  Getting hits at the right time often determines when a team will win.  It is especially important for a team to get hits with runners in scoring position (RISP).  Although Werth was a dangerous offensive weapon when he was in Philadelphia, the Phillies will still be able to still have an explosive offense as long as they can continue to clutch hit with RISP.

In 2010, the Phillies had the best regular season record in baseball at 97-65.  The Phillies were largely able to win games when they were able to hit well with RISP.  In 2010, the Phillies batted .262 with runners in scoring position, with 371 hits in 1,415 attempts.

However, when the Phillies won a game, their batting average with runners in scoring position was .300, with 295 hits in 984 attempts.  In contrast, for the games that the Phillies lost, their batting average with runners in scoring position was only .176, with 76 hits in 431 attempts.  If the Phillies are able to have a high average in 2011 with runners in scoring position, they can be the same offensive team that they were last year.

The Phillies may no longer have as much power at the plate, but they do have a great potential to win games by playing small ball, which is also strengthened by the fact that the Phillies have four ace starting pitchers.  RISP is a key factor in determining if a team will win games, and if the Phillies can average the same or improve upon their 2010 RISP, the team will have great results in 2011.

By the way, it should be noted that although Werth is a good power hitter, his batting average with runners in scoring position for 2010 was 186. He certainly was not a key contributor to aiding the team’s average with RISP.

Also, since I have recently been plugging Ben Francisco to be the full time starter, it is appropriate to note that Francisco batting average and on base percentage are at their peak with runners in scoring position. Francisco’s batting average for 2010 was .268, and his on base percentage was .327. However, with runners in scoring positions, those percentages were increased to .306 and .386, respectively.

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