2010 MLB Playoffs: Predictions and Assessments

Another MLB postseason is here! 

And for the third straight year, I have prepared my assessments and predictions for each and every series. 

Past assessments and predictions on my part have been mixed: In 2008, I successfully predicted the winner of four of the seven possible series; in 2009, I successfully predicted the winner of five of the seven possible series, including the two pennant winners. 

I did project before the start of division play last year that the Philadelphia Phillies would meet the New York Yankees in the World Series; however, as a matter of humility, I also projected that the Phillies would defeat the Yankees. Sadly, I was in error with that prediction. But, overall, not bad! 

So, here we go:

2010 ALDS: TEXAS RANGERS versus TAMPA BAY RAYS

Prediction: Rays will defeat the Rangers three games to zero—this will be a sweep.

Unfortunately for the Texas Rangers, the month of September was rather dull. 

Had it not been for their enormous lead at the top of a very uncompetitive American League West division, they would have been overtaken and denied the first trip to postseason play since 1999. 

The Rangers are outmatched by a far superior Tampa Bay Rays squad. 

The two main weapons which the Rangers possess, Cliff Lee and Josh Hamilton, have a lot of questions hovering over their abilities.

The Rays have faced off against Cliff Lee three times this season and have defeated Lee in all three of his starts; Hamilton just recently came off the Disabled List and thus, his offensive productivity remains quite unknown. 

In a best-of-five division series, teams with experience and a solid pitching rotation can easily dominate.

Tampa Bay is only two years removed from a trip to the World Series. With most of that team still on board, Tampa Bay has the clear advantage on experience.

Tampa Bay has the best team ERA among the four American League playoff teams. With potential AL Cy Young Award winner David Price and a no-hit wonder from this season, Matt Garza, backing him up in the rotation, Tampa Bay has the clear advantage on pitching. 

As mentioned earlier, this will be a sweep.

2010 ALDS: NEW YORK YANKESS versus MINNESOTA TWINS

Prediction: Twins will defeat the Yankees three games to one. 

The New York Yankees are the defending World Series champions. There is an old saying that the champs remain the champs until somebody can muster enough strength to defeat them. 

The Twins clearly are that somebody. 

The key difference between these two teams is pitching. The Yankees have a clumsy pitching staff while the Twins boast of one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. 

Minnesota’s bullpen features three relievers who have closed games this season, whether for the Twins or for another franchise before being traded to the Twins in the middle of the year (Matt Capps, Jon Rauch, and Brian Fuentes). Collectively, these three pitchers saved 87 games this season!

Contrast the stellar bullpen of the Twins to the shaky, uncertain starting rotation for the New York Yankees: Andy Pettitte has had a shaky second-half for the Yankees; Phil Hughes, who had a fabulous first half, was rendered very ineffective in the months of August and September.

As for the potential Game 1 starter for the Bronx Bombers, CC Sabathia arguably is one of the worst postseason pitchers active in the game today. 

Just ask the Cleveland Indians and the Milwaukee Brewers how Sabathia performed in October.

I trust you that “stellar” would be absent in their diatribes unless it was preceded by a “not.”

2010 ALCS: MINNESOTA TWINS versus TAMPA BAY RAYS

Prediction: Rays will defeat the Twins four games to two. 

The key for this matchup is home-field advantage.

The Twins record on the road is 41-40, which is decent but is the weakest of all six division winners, except the Texas Rangers; another key is fundamental baseball. 

Although both teams boast great pitching, with the Rays boasting a stellar starting rotation and the Twins boasting a stellar bullpen, the tiebreaker will be how well these clubs can play “small ball” and manufacture the crucial runs. 

This is a category that benefits the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays led all of MLB in stolen bases with a whopping 171.

The Twins finished in 25^th place out of the 30 MLB teams in that category with an abysmal 67! Ouch! That is a colossal gap in a vital category.

Since the Rays have home-field advantage for this matchup, they would host the first two games and grab an early two game lead.

The Twins may manage to take two of three at home but the deciding Game 6 would be back in Tampa Bay with the same result occurring: a Rays victory. 

For the second time in three years, the Tamp Bay Rays will win the American League pennant.

The Tampa Bay Rays will win the AL Pennant!

2010 NLDS: CINCINNATI REDS versus PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Prediction: Phillies will defeat the Reds three games to none—this will be a sweep.

Statistically, the Reds do not appear to be poorly matched against the Phillies. After all, the Reds led the entire National League in homeruns. 

However, there is an old adage in baseball: Great Pitching Always Beats Great Hitting! 

The Reds, unfortunately, were leaders among all four National League playoff teams in another category this season: Strikeouts! 

Cincinnati hitters struck out 1,214 times in contrast to the Philadelphia Phillies who whiffed only 1,056 times, good for 14^th fewest out of 16 National League teams this season! 

Thus, the discipline of four-time defending National League East division champion Philadelphia hitters remains far superior to the postseason novices in Cincinnati. 

In addition, in a best-of-five series, if a starting rotation for any team features Roy Halladay (2003 Cy Young Award winner with Toronto), Cole Hamels (2008 NLCS MVP with Philadelphia), and Roy Oswalt (2005 NLCS MVP with Houston), that team is well anchored for an easy sweep.

2010 ALDS: ATLANTA BRAVES versus SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Prediction: Giants will defeat the Braves three games to two.

This series will be a nail-biter between two evenly matched teams.

For goodness sake, they both have the exact same team batting average (.257)! 

As for pitching, both teams boasted tremendous team ERA numbers.

Atlanta posted a 3.56 team ERA, which usually was enough to lead the National League in seasons past; however, San Francisco posted a far better 3.38 team ERA to lead all of Major League Baseball. 

With a pitching rotation that includes Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain, the Giants possess a slight advantage over the Atlanta Braves, who only seem to have Tim Hudson and possibly Derek Lowe to counter. 

Due to this slight advantage, this series will drag out to five games; however, with San Francisco hosting that deciding Game 5, the Giants will defeat the Braves to secure their spot in the NLCS.

2010 NLCS: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS versus PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Prediction: Phillies will defeat the Giants four games to one.

This NLCS matchup is a terrible mismatch of epic proportions. 

Offensively, Philadelphia led San Francisco in practically every single hitting category; on pitching, the seasoned rotation that the Phillies possess dwarfs any stellar elements in the San Francisco staff. 

This truly is a League Championship Series where one team is clearly superior and the other team is clearly inferior. For the third consecutive year, the Philadelphia Phillies will win the NLCS and compete in the World Series!!!

The Philadelphia Phillies will win the NL Pennant!

2010 World Series: TAMPA BAY RAYS versus PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Prediction: Phillies will defeat the Rays four games to two.

This World Series will be a rematch of the 2008 World Series. 

In that series, the Phillies defeated the Rays in five games (four games to one). Both clubs today feature many of the players that competed in that series. 

The result will not be much different this year. 

David Price will be a worthy foe to the spectacular pitching rotation of the Philadelphia Phillies. But beyond Price, Philadelphia seems to have enough offensive weapons to defeat Garza and the rest of the Tampa Bay rotation. 

The player to watch in this series will be Jayson Werth, right-fielder for the Phillies who finished the season with 26 homeruns and a .296 batting average. Werth usually bats behind Ryan Howard in the batting order. An effective postseason for Werth will prohibit any attempt by pitchers to intentionally walk Ryan Howard. 

A Phillies victory in the World Series depends on the offensive production of Werth, who should take home the MVP trophy for the Fall Classic if he succeeds.

One further note, for the first time since “This Time It Counts” began in 2003 for the Midsummer Classic, the National League team will host the World Series. Thus, Philadelphia will open the World Series at home for the first two games and the eventual deciding Game 6. This fact also helps the prediction of a Philadelphia triumph in the World Series.

The Philadelphia Phillies will win the 2010 World Series!

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2009 MLB Playoffs: Predictions and Assessments

Last year at this time, I posted an article of my predictions for the 2008 MLB playoffs. 

Of the seven postseason series, I accurately called four of them, including the NLCS showdown.  I had the Phillies knocking off the Dodgers in five games last year, which turned out to be 100 percent accurate!  

However, before I give myself a congratulatory pat on the back, I should also inform the reader that I whiffed on the World Series.  I had predicted that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were going to defeat the Phillies for the Fall Classic.  Unfortunately, the Angels were knocked out in the ALDS by the Boston Red Sox.  To see what I wrote last year, here is that article:

Predictions and Assessments of the 2008 Major League Baseball Playoffs

Will I be better this year?  Let us roll with 2009!!!

 

2009 ALDS; MINNESOTA TWINS versus NEW YORK YANKEES

Prediction: Yankees will defeat the Twins three games to zero.  This will be a sweep.

These Yankees are not like the previous A-Rod Yankees who crashed and burned in the opening round of the playoffs three times under former manager Joe Torre. 

These Yankees are well-equipped in the pitching department and have no safe place in the batting order to pitch to.  The Yankees had five players this year smash at least 25 home runs [Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, and Mark Teixeiria].  While CC Sabathia did accumulate 19 wins this season with the Yankees and is likely the top candidate for the AL Cy Young Award, he has not been a reliable pitcher in the postseason. 

Want proof? 

Check with Cleveland and Milwaukee fans for tales of old!  However, Minnesota will be without its strongest hitter for this series, Justin Morneau, and Sabathia will have a powerful lineup supporting his every pitching effort.  With the Minnesota Twins providing a respectable effort in the latter half of the season to clinch a playoff spot for the AL Central, they exhausted a great ton of their starting rotation and bullpen to accomplish that effort.  The ace of Minnesota’s staff this season, Scott Baker, had to be used for the one-game playoff and will likely not see any action this series until Game 3 at the earliest.  By that point, the Yankees would be up 2 games to 0, courtesy of a couple of blowouts at home.  Baker will not be enough for the Twins to avoid the sweep. 

 

2009 ALDS; BOSTON RED SOX versus LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

Prediction: Angels will defeat the Red Sox three games to two.

Well, I got this exact same prediction wrong last year.  Am I an idiot for going with the Angels edging the Red Sox two years in a row?  I doubt it.  These Angels do not have the world’s most impressive hitters; however, they play the most fundamentally sound baseball unlike many teams in the game today. 

They have two players who have stolen at least 30 bases this season [Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins].  In addition, while Josh Beckett is a good postseason pitcher, Boston’s Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield are not always reliable in October.  Instead, the pitching combination of Los Angeles’ John Lackey, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver is a far more consistent trio. 

The addition of Torii Hunter in center field also provides the Angels with a huge defensive stud which is vital for winning ball clubs in October.  This series will be ugly.  There will be a split in Anaheim for the first 2 games, a split in Boston for the next 2 games, and a nail-biting Angels victory in Game 5 at home over the Red Sox. 

 

2009 ALCS; LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM versus NEW YORK YANKEES

Prediction: Yankees will defeat the Angels four games to one.

The Yankees will prove to be unstoppable in this series.  They will ride their momentum from the ALDS against the Twins and take the first 3 games of this series before dropping Game 4 in Los Angeles before finishing the Halos off in Game 5.  Although the Angels have a good trio of starting pitchers, the Yankees have a better batting lineup.  

The New York Yankees will win the AL Pennant!!!

 

 

 

2009 NLDS; COLORADO ROCKIES versus PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Prediction: Phillies will defeat the Rockies three games to zero.  This will be a sweep.

In 2007, the Rockies humiliated the Phillies by sweeping them in three straight games. But, that was 2007. 

The following season, the Phillies returned and won the World Series.  Now, the Phillies have entered October not only for the third consecutive season but also as defending champs.  And there is a golden rule in sports that champs remain champs until someone can defeat them.  I hate to break it to Colorado fans, but the Rockies do not match at all with the Phillies.  Any batting order which features Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley is extraordinarily intimidating. 

Who do the Rockies have to counter that?  Not Matt Holliday!  He left the Rockies before the 2009 season.  He is now with the St. Louis Cardinals.  Long story short, the Phillies will beat the Rockies as badly as the Rockies were beaten by the Red Sox in the 2007 World Series.

 

2009 NLDS; ST. LOUIS CARDINALS versus LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Prediction: Cardinals will defeat the Dodgers three games to one.

The Cardinals had arguably the greatest starting pitching rotation for the season.  This trend will continue in the NLDS against the LA Dodgers.  Here are the four biggest reasons why the Cardinals are better than the Dodgers:

No. 1: Tony LaRussa [LaRussa has an incredible postseason record in the LDS, having won his last 4 appearances in the LDS.  Joe Torre has lost three of his last four appearances in the LDS.]

No. 2: Albert Pujols [47 home runs, 135 RBIs, enough said]

No. 3: Pitching [Chris Carpenter has 17 wins, Adam Wainwright has 19 wins, and neither has an ERA above 2.70 this season.  The LA Dodgers do not have any starting pitcher with more than 12 wins this season.]

No. 4: Head-to-head [The St. Louis Cardinals were 5-2 this season against the Dodgers.]

 

2009 NLCS; ST. LOUIS CARDINALS versus PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Prediction: Phillies will defeat the Cardinals four games to three.  This will be one of the most exciting playoff series in MLB history.

Ryan Howard versus Albert Pujols!  Cole Hamels versus Chris Carpenter!  Jayson Werth versus Matt Holliday!  This series has classic written all over it.  And it will not disappoint.  

Both teams are loaded with World Series experience and postseason glories.  Both teams are led by very effective managers. Both teams have good batting lineups with superstar sluggers. This will go the distance…but the home-field advantage which the Phillies have will earn them the edge.  Hosting a Game 7 is always a great advantage.

The Philadelphia Phillies will win the NL Pennant!!!

 

 

 

2009 WORLD SERIES; PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES V. NEW YORK YANKEES

Prediction: Phillies will defeat the Yankees four games to two.

The Philadelphia Phillies have the same balanced, yet powerful batting order that they had last year when they won the 2008 World Series.  CC Sabathia will be hammered twice in this series for crushing Yankee losses.  This will give the Phillies the momentum they need to finish the Yankees off in New York in Game 6 and repeat as World Series champions. 

Once again, I would take a batting lineup with Rollins, Utley, and Howard anyday over Jeter, Teixeira, and A-Rod.  Why?  Because look at who supports these trios.  For the Phillies, it is Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino.  For the Yankees, it is Robinson Cano [decent but not great], Johnny Damon [very unreliable], and Jorge Posada [inconsistent these past few seasons].  The edge is clearly with the Phillies!

The Philadelphia Phillies will repeat as champions and win the 2009 World Series!

 

 

 

 

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