Ryan Howard: Philadelphia Phillies Will Survive Early Absence of Overrated 1B

October 9, 2011 by Tim Daniels
Filed under Fan News

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard is expected to miss at least the early portion of next season after an MRI revealed a torn Achilles tendon, according to Howard Eskin. Thankfully for the Phillies, he’s an overrated aspect of their team, and they’ll survive without him in the short term.

To prove my point, which of the following groups would you say Howard belongs?

Group A	Group B
Miguel Cabrera	Michael Cuddyer
Prince Fielder	Carlos Santana
Joey Votto	Carlos Pena
Adrian Gonzalez	Freddie Freeman

If you chose the Cabrera group, you couldn’t be more wrong. Those four first basemen are the only ones with a wOBA above .400 and a wRC+ above 150. That is truly an elite group of players, and Howard belongs nowhere near them.

Howard’s wOBA was .354 and his wRC+ was 123. Those numbers place him firmly in the second group of players. His runs batted in total (116), which is the main argument Howard supporters use to defend him, is a matter of opportunity and not ability.

Not to mention, Howard is an atrocious fielder. His minus-nine defensive-runs-saved stat represents the second-worst 1B among qualifiers in 2011. Howard’s poor fielding also negatively affects his wins above replacement (WAR) number, which came in at 1.6 this season.

Translation: Over the course of this entire season, Howard wasn’t even worth two wins more than an average replacement. For comparison, Cabrera was worth more than seven wins, and the other three members of “Group A” were worth at least 5.5 wins.

Eric Hosmer, who played in 24 less games than Howard, had the same WAR as the Phillies cleanup hitter. Hosmer was a rookie.

When you put all these things together, what you get is an above average first baseman who doesn’t belong in any elite conversations.

That’s why the Phillies, who will once again rely heavily on their pitching staff next season (perhaps too heavily), will do just fine without Howard.

Philadelphia should find a serviceable replacement for a couple months, preferably one who plays strong defense behind that dominant rotation, and the team will stay afloat.

The Phillies’ biggest worry this offseason should be finding a new left fielder to replace Raul Ibanez, who was downright terrible this season, and not what they’ll do without Howard.