Phillies Trade Rumors: Hunter Pence Is the One Guy Philly Shouldn’t Trade
July 20, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
Everybody is waiting for the Philadelphia Phillies to go into fire sale mode. And since the trade deadline is fast approaching and the team is still facing a double-digit deficit in the NL East, that time could come very soon.
If the Phillies do decide to sell, they’ll have quite a few players to offer needy contenders. Cole Hamels will be Philly’s biggest trade chip if the organization fails to sign him to an extension in the near future, and you can rest assured that he will be traded if a deal can’t be struck.
If Hamels is signed, Cliff Lee could be moved to open up a little payroll flexibility for the offseason, an idea that’s been kicked around by the likes of Peter Gammons and Danny Knobler.
As far as bats go, the Phillies could end up moving free-agent-to-be Shane Victorino. Former NL MVP Jimmy Rollins could go too.
So could Hunter Pence.
…Apparently.
It’s more of an idea than a rumor at this point, as the Phillies haven’t really sent any signals that they’re willing to trade Pence, who is under contract through next season.
But according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, there’s definitely interest in Pence around Major League Baseball.
“He’s attracting as much interest as anybody they have,” said one executive, “maybe even more than Hamels.”
Stark mentions the Pittsburgh Pirates as a possible fit for Pence, which makes sense given their known interest in Justin Upton (B/R has the latest on him all in one place). Other contenders that could use a good bat in right field include the Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants and maybe the Texas Rangers.
Naturally, actually trading Pence is complicated. Stark outlined the various dilemmas facing the Phillies pretty well in his report:
[Pence] can’t be a free agent until after next season, so this is the optimal time to move him. But he and Carlos Ruiz are their only productive right-handed bats. And if they deal Pence and Shane Victorino, it would mean having to reconstruct their entire outfield by next Opening Day. So if the Phillies have a rough week, they’ll almost certainly listen on Pence in the days before the deadline. But they’d need a major haul in return to pull the trigger.
Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer also chimed in on the Pence dilemma. He’s more or less in favor of the idea of trading Pence, noting that he could fetch a more impressive haul of prospects than Hamels and that the Phillies could take the money saved by trading Pence and spend it on two outfield spots instead of just one.
All around, pretty interesting stuff. It’s not out of the question that the Phillies could take all this into consideration and then deal Pence at some point in the next 10 days or so.
It’s either that, or they could realize how valuable Pence is and hold on to him for the rest of this season and all of 2013.
Pence is not in the same boat as Victorino. There’s no pressure on the Phillies to trade him because he’s about to become a free agent, nor is there any pressure on the Phillies to take what they can get for Pence because he’s having a poor season.
This is because Pence is actually having a pretty decent season. He entered Friday’s action hitting .277/.344/.470 with an .814 OPS, 17 home runs and 57 RBI (h/t Baseball-Reference.com).
That .814 OPS is a far cry from the .954 OPS Pence posted after he came over to the Phillies from Houston last season, but it’s right in line with the .828 OPS he posted when he was a member of the Astros last season.
The four seasons before that, Pence averaged an OPS of .817. So don’t call Pence an underachiever. His numbers are right about where they should be this season.
In fact, it can be argued that Pence has overachieved this season. With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out of the lineup for virtually the entire season, there was a lot of pressure on Pence to come through with clutch hits.
To that end, he did pretty well, hitting .275/.343/.466 with 13 homers and 42 RBI while Utley and Howard were absent.
Utley returned on June 27. Howard returned a few days later on July 6. Since June 27, Pence is hitting .288/.347/.485 with four homers and 15 RBI. As MLB.com noted on Friday, Pence has been money with runners in scoring position since Utley’s return. He’s collected nine hits in 20 at-bats in such situations.
Basically, what Pence has done with Utley and Howard back in Philly’s lineup is pick up where he left off last season. He’s a different player with the two of them in the lineup.
As long as their bodies don’t betray them (fingers crossed, Phillies fans), Utley and Howard are going to be back in Philly’s lineup next season too. So will Pence if the Phillies choose to keep him. It’s not crazy to think he could put together a monster year.
It’s also not crazy to think that the Phillies will be able to contend in 2013, a notion that a lot of people seem to have already disregarded due to the team’s struggles this season. Even if they fail to re-sign Hamels, they’ll still have Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in their rotation, not to mention the underappreciated Vance Worley. Ruben Amaro will have holes to patch elsewhere, but he’s not looking at a complete rebuilding job even if he jettisons Hamels and Victorino at the trade deadline.
Amaro should only deal Pence this season if he thinks the Phillies are doomed in 2013, in which case he should deal every other tradeable asset he has at his disposal. If Amaro doesn’t think the Phillies can win in 2013, then he should get the ball rolling on a rebuilding phase right away.
I think we all know this isn’t going to happen. Even if they do make some deals in the next 10 days or so, the Phillies should still have enough talent to contend in 2013. Or at least, that’s what the organization will peddle to its sizable fanbase.
Either way, keeping Pence around is of paramount importance to the team’s chances next season. If his fellow sluggers stay healthy, the Phillies could make this 2012 season nothing more than a bad memory.
And if things don’t work out, hey, there will be a trade deadline next year too.
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Would a Massive Cole Hamels Deal with the Phillies Make Cliff Lee Trade Bait?
July 13, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
The whole world is waiting for the Philadelphia Phillies to trade Cole Hamels, and why not? He’s due to become a free agent at the end of the year, he could fetch them a significant package of prospects and it’s not like they need him anymore seeing as how they’re 13 games under .500 and utterly without hope heading into the season’s second half.
If Hamels was on any other team, he probably would have already been traded by now.
But the Phillies are the Phillies. They have lots of cash and a fan base that must be pleased, lest they stop filling every seat in Citizens Bank Park day after day. The Phillies are not about to let Hamels go without a fight.
According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the Phillies are going to make one more last-ditch effort to sign Hamels before MLB‘s July 31 trade deadline. Stark has it on good authority that the Phillies are preparing a “substantial offer” for Hamels. In this case, the thinking is that the offer would have to be something similar to the five-year, $112.5 million extension Matt Cain got from the San Francisco Giants.
If Hamels rejects this offer, it’s a virtual lock that the Phillies will deal him at some point in the next couple weeks. If he accepts this offer, he’s not going anywhere.
Even if Hamels does re-up with the Phillies, there’s some chatter about the team parting ways with another one of their star left-handers at the trade deadline: veteran lefty Cliff Lee.
Yup, him again. He was traded at the deadline in 2009 and 2010, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be traded at the deadline in 2012 too.
Renowned MLB Network baseball guru Peter Gammons floated the idea to 94WIP’s Angelo Cataldi and the WIP Morning Show. Via CBS Philly:
I’m still, in the back of my mind, and I’m sure I’m wrong here. But I keep thinking Is there a possibility that they’ll see if they can, in the next couple of weeks, if we can get in an area, where we can sign Hamels and trade Cliff Lee, because you could get more for Cliff Lee than you can for Hamels.
Very interesting…But does this notion have any legs?
Yes and no.
No, because this is more a case of Gammons thinking out loud than anything else. He did the same thing when he floated the idea of the Boston Red Sox trading Jon Lester (see CBS Boston), and that didn’t end up going anywhere. In fact, Lester himself took to Twitter to let the people of Red Sox Nation know that he is perfectly happy in Boston.
Yes, because Gammons isn’t wrong in suggesting that the Phillies could get more for Lee than they could for Hamels. Lee is older than Hamels and he’s had some slight injury problems in the last couple of years, but he’s a former Cy Young winner who is under contract through 2015. Lee wouldn’t be a rental, and he’s a better pitcher than Hamels when things are clicking for him.
And believe it or not, Gammons is not the first baseball insider to pitch the idea of the Phillies trading Lee. Joel Sherman of the New York Post pitched it almost a month ago.
Here’s the key part of Sherman’s reasoning:
The Phils are in a tough spot. They are in the midst of the best stretch in team history (five straight division titles, two pennants, one title). They want to honor that run and the full houses they get each game at Citizens Bank Park by continuing to go for it. But to get there they have had to strip their farm system while elevating the age of their major league roster. They need a mechanism to get younger while still contending.
They could contend without Lee if Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Halladay get healthy/productive (remember, they won it all in 2008 with just one unquestioned ace in Hamels). And they can’t win even with Lee if that trio does not rediscover close to their peak form. But either way the Phillies would be best served with an injection of talented youth that Lee could bring in a trade.
So you can easily see where both Gammons and Sherman are coming from. Signing Hamels is in the Phillies’ interest because he’s still young, but keeping him wouldn’t change the fact that they desperately need to do something to strengthen their farm system. In this scenario, Lee is without a doubt their best trade asset, one that they can afford to part with to boot.
Not that trading Lee would be easy, of course. He loves Philadelphia, and Sherman noted that Lee has a nine-team no-trade list. AND he’s owed $25 million per year in 2013, 2014 and 2015, with a $27.5 million vesting option for the 2016 season. It’s either that or a $12.5 million buyout.
This narrows the list of potential trade partners down considerably. The New York Yankees would seem to be an obvious suitor, but Sherman had a point when he noted that the Yankees have tried on multiple occasions to acquire Lee with no success. Plus, they’re not looking to add payroll, and they mean it when they say that.
The Phillies could eat some of Lee’s salary in order to make it easier to trade him, but why would they do that? You typically only see that when a team is trading away a bad player with a big contract, a la Carlos Zambrano. You don’t see that when a team is trading away a good player with a big contract.
Besides, if the Phillies sign Hamels to a lucrative extension, they’re going to want to get as much money off their books as they possibly can. Per USA Today, their payroll already checks in at around $175 million. The last thing they want is to climb too high above the luxury tax threshold.
To make sure we’re all clear on this, Lee doesn’t have to go if the Phillies do end up re-signing Hamels at some point in the next couple of weeks. The Phillies could easily choose to keep the Halladay-Lee-Hamels rotation trio intact for the purpose of contending in 2013 and beyond.
But they’d be fools not to at least consider dealing Lee if they do re-sign Hamels, just as they’d be fools to not consider dealing Hamels if he isn’t re-signed. They need to think about the team’s future, which isn’t all that bright.
The team’s mound staff is fine, but just look at what the Phillies are dealing with in the field. Shane Victorino is a declining player who is due to become a free agent at the end of the season. Chase Utley is playing on two ruined knees, and it’s not out of the question that he could be forced into an early retirement. Ryan Howard was on the decline as a hitter in 2010 and 2011, and then he ruptured his Achilles last October. Jimmy Rollins has come around after a slow start, but he’s also getting older.
The Phillies need young players in place to take over when their aging stars are ready to be replaced. Right now, they don’t have those young players, and at this point spending money on high-priced free agents should be out of the question.
Make no mistake about it, the Phillies must do something to add to their farm system. To that end, Hamels and Lee can help.
If the Phillies end up holding on to both of them, then they better win in 2012 and/or 2013. The current team’s window to contend is closing.
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Will Charlie Manuel Be Sacrificial Lamb for Phillies’ Embarrassing First Half?
July 10, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2012 season as five-time defending NL East champions. All five of those division titles came under the sage-like gaze of manager Charlie Manuel.
It is under that same sage-like gaze that the Phillies have gone from first to worst this season. They ended Major League Baseball’s unofficial first half with a record of 37-50. As Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer pointed out, it took a lot longer for the Phillies to get to 50 losses in 2011:
The Phillies lost their 50th game last season on Sept. 12. They were 94-50. They are 37-50 right now.
— Matt Gelb (@magelb) July 8, 2012
At the rate the Phillies are going, they’re going to end the season with over 90 losses. For them to turn things around and make it back to the postseason, they’re going to need both good health and a few miracles.
If Jonathan Papelbon feels like doing some sort of rain dance jig, that probably wouldn’t hurt.
In times like these, a lot of peoples’ first impulse is to blame the manager. There’s some of that going around where Manuel is concerned at the moment. Barring an epic turnaround in the second half, one obviously has to wonder if this will be Manuel’s last season in Philadelphia.
Shoot, one has to wonder if he’ll even make it to the end. When a team is playing as poorly as the Phillies are, the manager is never safe.
…But nobody should be reaching for torches and/or pitchforks. This isn’t one of those situations.
One thing that’s for sure is that the Phillies aren’t going to fire Manuel because they think firing him will be the spark the Phillies need to snap out of their funk. Phillies fans tend to give Manuel (and everyone else under the sun) a hard time, but even they have to realize that it’s not Manuel’s fault that the team is so far under .500.
It’s not his fault that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were just featured in the same lineup for the first time all season a couple days before the All-Star break. Manuel did not ruin Utley’s knees, and he did not rupture Howard’s Achilles. The team struggled to score runs without the two of them, but Manuel can’t be blamed for that either.
Nor can he be blamed for Roy Halladay’s shoulder woes or Cliff Lee’s various issues.
Though some have ventured to criticize his handling of the bullpen, it’s not Manuel’s fault that the Phillies lack both depth and talent in their bullpen. What they have out in the pen would be good enough if the team’s starters were going seven or eight innings every night, as they did last year, but that hasn’t happened in 2012.
So, it’s not like we’re talking about a really good team that is underachieving. We’re talking about a team that has been undermanned all season due to injuries.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies’ Pythagorean winning percentage says they should have a record of 41-46 this season. Given all that has gone on, this essentially indicates that the Phillies indeed should be under .500.
Firing Manuel would accomplish little. Removing him from the equation would not return Utley and Howard to the form of their glory days. It would not make Doc Halladay a Cy Young contender again. It would not add more wins to Lee’s record. It would not fix the bullpen.
In other words, firing Manuel will not make the Phillies great again. Firing the manager can be a useful means to light a fire under a team’s collective posterior. But the Phillies aren’t one of those teams. If anything, firing him would make things worse, not better.
If Manuel is fired this season, it will be a mercy firing. And this is only going to happen if it’s clear by the trade deadline that it’s not happening this year (that’s already clear enough, of course). By this time, the Phillies likely will have already traded ace lefty and free-agent-to-be Cole Hamels. Probably Shane Victorino as well.
But again, it’s hard to see this happening during the season. Manuel has been around since 2005, and the Phillies have finished second or better each year he’s been in the dugout. He doesn’t get a ton of respect as a manager, but any manager who wins a World Series at least deserves his share of respect from his own organization.
If the organization knows in August and September that the Phillies are out of the race, it will not do Manuel the dishonor of cutting him loose. At worst, that would be disrespectful. At best, it would be an awkward and anticlimactic end to a great run.
Even if this does end up being Manuel’s final season as the skipper of the Phillies, it’s more likely that both sides will wait until the season is over before they come to some sort of mutual agreement. Manuel only has one year left on his contract, so it’s not like either side is into this relationship for the long haul.
Of course, this is a scenario that’s dependent on what kind of personnel moves the Phillies make in the next couple months. If Hamels and Victorino are both shipped out of town or leave as free agents, then it’s going to be clear that the Phillies are headed towards something of a rebuilding phase.
Manuel shouldn’t want to be around for that. And if that’s the direction the Phillies are going to go in, they may as well find themselves a new manager.
One way or the other, don’t expect Manuel to be out as manager of the Phillies as a form of punishment. If he loses his job over this season, it will be because everyone will have realized that the timing is right for his departure.
Try not to boo him if and when he leaves town, Philadelphia. This has been a rough year. But the rest? They were OK.
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5 Predictions for Ryan Howard’s Comeback with the Philadelphia Phillies
July 6, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
Good news, Philadelphia Phillies fans. Slugging first baseman Ryan Howard is back.
The Phillies announced via Twitter earlier on Friday that Howard has been activated off the DL. The word from Todd Zolecki of MLB.com is that Howard is in the No. 4 spot in Charlie Manuel’s lineup for Friday night’s contest against the Atlanta Braves.
Howard hasn’t played in a major league ballgame since Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals, when he famously tore his Achilles tendon on a groundout that clinched the series for the Cardinals. He’s been on the disabled list since the start of the season.
Howard’s power has been missed. The Phillies have only hit 83 home runs through their first 84 games, and they rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored.
In a perfect world, Howard will provide the production that the Phillies have been missing all season. In an even more perfect world, he’ll help them make a comeback in the NL East. The Phillies enter the weekend 37-47 and 13 games behind the Washington Nationals, and the slightest breeze could push them towards a deadline season fire sale.
There’s no telling what’s going to happen, but I have a few rational predictions for how all of this is going to play out. Start the slideshow whenever you’re ready for some serious prophesying.
Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Phillies Need More Than Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to Make Roaring Comeback
June 28, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the National League’s most disappointing teams this season, but they’re getting better.
Chase Utley returned to the Phillies’ lineup on Wednesday, and in style to boot. He homered in his first at-bat, and went on to collect three hits on the day. Talk about a sight for sore eyes.
Ryan Howard will also soon be back. As the Phillies announced via Twitter on Wednesday, Howard will start a rehab assignment on Thursday, meaning he could be back in the big club’s lineup in a week or two.
So yeah, the Phillies are getting better.
…Just not that much better.
Watching Utley return in style was a pretty awesome thing to see even for non-Phillies fans, but Phillies fans have to be ultra-careful with their expectations where he’s concerned. Utley was not in the starting lineup for Philly’s matinee contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, and the word from the Philadelphia Inquirer is that Charlie Manuel’s plan is to give Utley every third game off for the time being.
Phillies fans have been waiting for Utley to return and be an everyday player once again. He’s back, but he’s not going to be an everyday player for a while longer, if at all.
Phillies fans must also have modest expectations for Howard. His return is approaching, but John Finger of CSNPhilly.com has reported that Howard will be at less than 100 percent healthy when he does return. He’ll be able to hit, but he won’t be able to move well. In fact, Howard has admitted that he still runs with a limp.
So what the Phillies are getting in Utley and Howard is not two superstars coming to the team’s rescue. What they’re getting is more like an extra pair of hands to help the salvaging effort.
If the Phillies are to raise their ship from the depths, they’re going to need a lot more help.
Much of the focus this season has been on the Phillies’ offensive struggles, but their pitching hasn’t been very great lately, either. Per FanGraphs, Phillies starters entered Thursday’s action with a record of 7-11 and an ERA of 4.78 in the month of June. They had an ERA over 4.00 in May, too.
Don’t be so surprised. As much as the Phillies have missed Utley and Howard, they’re missing Roy Halladay even more right now. Or at least, they’re missing the version of Halladay that they came to know and love in 2010 and 2011, when he was one of baseball’s best pitchers.
Halladay hasn’t pitched since late May. And though Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reported on Wednesday that Halladay is making progress, his return is still a couple weeks away.
When Halladay does return, the Phillies will be banking on the notion that a few weeks of rest were just what his shoulder needed. They need him to be the ace he was in 2010 and 2011.
In the meantime, they need to worry about propping up Cliff Lee’s spirits by giving him a win. He hasn’t been as brilliant this season as he was last season, but he’s surely been good enough to deserve at least one win this season. His 3.72 ERA ain’t bad. His 3.02 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is even better.
What made the Phillies so good last year was the fact that Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels were so good so consistently. The three of them represented the best trio of starting pitchers in baseball, and they made life much easier for an offense that struggled to score runs like it did in years prior.
Hamels has been good all season this year, but the Phillies haven’t gotten nearly the same enjoyment out of the Halladay-Lee-Hamels trifecta. That’s something that absolutely needs to change in the final months of the season if the Phillies are going to recover to make a run at a postseason berth.
And yes, they need bullpen help, too. Philly relievers have a 4.67 ERA this season, third-worst in baseball. In June, they have an ERA of 4.71, which is par for the course.
There’s no clear answer to this problem. Veteran righty Chad Qualls was designated for assignment on Thursday, according to the Associated Press, and he is being replaced by righty Brian Sanches and lefty Jeremy Horst.
Sanches has already made three appearances for the Phillies this season, posting an ERA over 11.00. Horst has a grand total of 12 big-league appearances under his belt, and they all came last year for the Cincinnati Reds.
The Phillies better hope that Sanches and Horst beat the odds and stabilize the bullpen. Otherwise, they’ll have to find relief help outside of the organization.
Good luck there. Trading for relievers is always risky business, and the Phillies are not blessed with an abundance of dealable assets.
That’s a problem that will make life difficult for them not just in the pursuit of relief help, but other help in general.
The Phillies could very much use another bat, but they’re going to have a hard time talking another team into giving up a good one for what the Phillies have to offer. Their minor league system is as barren as it’s been in years (ranked No. 25 in ESPN’s Keith Law’s preseason rankings), leaving them with a shortage of young players that they can package up and trade for a veteran hitter or two.
Alas, there will be no Hunter Pence trade this year.
In all likelihood, Ruben Amaro won’t be able to make a significant move of any kind before MLB‘s trade deadline. The Phillies are going to have to do what they can with what they’ve got.
The Phillies lost to the Pirates on Thursday to drop their record to 36-42 on the season. That puts them on pace to win just 75 games.
In order to win 85 games, the Phillies will have to win 49 of their final 84 games, a winning percentage of .583.
And that’s just to win 85 games. It could take as many as 90 wins to secure one of the National League’s two wild-card spots, and the Phillies would have to play better than .600 ball the rest of the way this season to reach that mark.
To accomplish that, they’ll need everything to go right. Utley and Howard will not only have to stay healthy. They’ll have to hit, too. They’ll also need the bullpen to settle down, and they’ll need Halladay, Lee, and Hamels to be as productive as they were last season.
Good luck, Phillies.
If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.
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Why Ryan Howard, Chase Utley Are Now Incapable of Playing Phillies’ Hero Role
June 6, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will soon be back, but it’s too late. The Philadelphia Phillies are already doomed.
Should we slow down a bit?
Yeah, let’s slow down a bit.
The good news is that I’m not lying about Howard and Utley being back soon. According to a report from Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the two of them batted six times in an extended spring training game on Wednesday.
Here’s how Salisbury characterized the situation: “If this were a football game, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would be entering the fourth quarter.”
Yup, they’re close.
Assuming there are no setbacks, both Howard and Utley could embark on minor league rehab assignments in a couple weeks, and join the Phillies a couple weeks later.
At this point, the Phillies can realistically expect to have both Howard and Utley back shortly after the All-Star break, and maybe even before if they’re lucky.
The bad news is it doesn’t matter.
The Phillies are basically counting on Howard and Utley to rescue them, and that’s asking too much. They may have been capable of heroically rescuing the Phillies once, but not anymore.
Phillies fans know the score when it comes to Howard.
He was the game’s most feared power hitter once upon a time, but his power numbers took a major dive in 2010 and 2011. He used to be good for a slugging percentage in the .550 range and an ISO (a measure of a hitter’s raw power) in the high .200s.
In 2010, he barely managed a slugging percentage over .500, and it dipped to .488 in 2011. His ISO was in the low .200s in both 2010 and 2011.
I won’t go so far as to call Howard old, but he’s definitely not a young man anymore. He was starting to crumble as an offensive force in 2010 and 2011, and then he ruptured his Achilles in the postseason.
He is now a declining player with a major injury and a long layoff in his wake. A player like that is not going to magically return to his glorious form of yesteryear.
The same is true of Utley, except his situation is even more disconcerting.
His decline as a hitter was even more sudden than Howard’s, and it was certainly more serious. He was a remarkably consistent producer for five straight seasons, and the next thing we knew he was slugging well below .500 and missing games left and right.
The time off will probably help Utley more than it will help Howard, but only to a degree. His knee problems are degenerative, meaning the fear of random flare-ups is not going to go away when—or if—he returns to the big club.
He’s going to need special treatment and time off, and there’s hardly any guarantee that he’s going to be able to hit like he used to when he is able to play.
Will Howard and Utley provide Philly’s offense with a boost?
Sure. It’s not like it’s going to be subtraction by addition. The two of them aren’t that hopeless.
Their returns just won’t be a significant boost, and that’s an issue.
The Phillies have a respectable team batting average, but they rank in the middle of the MLB in runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Theirs is a mediocre offense.
All Howard and Utley will do is make it a little less mediocre.
Meanwhile, the Phillies will probably also be dealing with the absence of staff ace Roy Halladay, who is going to be out for up to two months with a bum shoulder, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Staff ace No. 2 Cliff Lee has already spent some time on the DL this season, and he’s still winless on the season.
The bullpen is an entirely different headache.
Jonathan Papelbon has been good. So has Antonio Bastardo.
Everyone else, not so much. It’s not a shock that the Phillies have one of the highest bullpen ERAs in the majors.
Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.” The Phillies’ record of 28-29, entering Wednesday, says they are both a subpar ballclub and a last-place ballclub.
As if the Phillies weren’t already in enough trouble, this year they have the added challenge of coming back and competing in a very deep National League East.
It only had two legit contenders last year, and this year it has four legit contenders—all of whom are ahead of the Phillies in the standings.
Of the bunch, I for one can see the Mets falling off the pace. But the Nationals, Marlins and Braves are quality clubs who are going to hang around all season.
The Phillies are currently on pace to win 80 games. It’s probably going to take at least 90 to make the playoffs.
If the Phillies are still one game under .500 at the All-Star break (43-44), they’re going to have to play .630 baseball down the stretch to even have a shot at the postseason.
The old versions of Howard and Utley could have made that kind of impact, but not these new ones. Their returns will be too little, too late.
This just isn’t the Phillies’ year.
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MLB Trade Rumors: Why Kevin Youkilis Is the Answer to Phillies’ Offensive Woes
May 15, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
The Boston Red Sox don’t need Kevin Youkilis anymore.
That sounds harsh. Cruel even. But… have you seen this Will Middlebrooks kid?
The Sox called up Middlebrooks to take Youkilis’ spot when they placed him on the disabled list earlier this month. In 11 games, Middlebrooks is hitting .304 with four home runs and 13 RBI. To put that in perspective, Middlebrooks has more RBI in 11 games than Albert Pujols has in 35.
Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington has said (via The Boston Globe) that Youkilis is going to be back at third base as soon as he comes off the DL, and that day is fast approaching. However, it’s fair to say that the Red Sox will be downgrading when they go from Middlebrooks back to Youkilis.
One thing Boston can do to make everyone happy is trade Youkilis, thus providing him with a change of scenery and opening up an opportunity for Middlebrooks to play every day at the hot corner for (hopefully) a long time.
It’s a legit possibility. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported recently that there is going to be a “strong” trade market for Youkilis if he can show he’s healthy after he comes back. Among the teams that are actively looking are the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies.
David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News likes the idea of the Phillies acquiring Youkilis. As long as he can be had “on the cheap,” of course.
Players that can be had on the cheap are the only players the Phillies can target, as their farm system has been stripped of a lot of talent in recent years thanks to high-profile trades. They don’t have the assets to pull off another Cliff Lee or Hunter Pence-esque trade.
Youkilis doesn’t have a whole lot of trade value right now, and his recent issues with injuries and simple ineffectiveness will make sure his value stays relatively low. As long as they aren’t asked to pick up the bulk of Youkilis’ remaining salary, the Red Sox probably will take what they can get for him, especially if that involves a pitcher or two.
The Phillies would be rolling the dice if they decided to execute a trade for Youkilis. But if there’s a team in the National League that needs to roll the dice, it’s them. They have the pitching to make a deep postseason run, but not the offense. Just like last year, they need a hitter.
Preferably a right-handed hitter with power who can play either corner infield spot. The Phillies aren’t going to get much offense from the first base spot in their lineup until Ryan Howard comes back, and Placido Polanco is only going to provide singles from the third base spot.
This is where Youkilis’ comes in. He could fill in at first base until Howard comes back, and he could slide over to third after Howard returns. Regardless of where he’s playing on the infield, his right-handed bat would fit well in the middle of Philly’s lineup, and he would also be a good fit in Citizens Bank Park.
Youkilis has a .171 average in 13 career games at Philly’s ballpark. He does, however, have three home runs in those 13 games. That’s not a huge surprise seeing as how his primary power alley is to left field, and the left field wall at Citizens Bank Park isn’t too far out there.
No, a trade to Philly would not make Youkilis’ fragility go away, and the Phillies would indeed be banking on the change of scenery energizing him.
They wouldn’t have to worry about the second part. Youkilis has calmed down some in the last couple years, but he’s a guy with a tendency to play the game with a chip on his shoulder. If the Sox trade him so they can play a rookie, Youkilis is going to have a huge chip on his shoulder. He would be out to prove, for both financial reasons and for pride’s sake, that he’s not washed up.
If the Phillies trade for Youkilis in the near future, their offense will be getting an upgrade, potentially a major one. Once Chase Utley and Ryan Howard return, the middle of Philly’s lineup would feature the likes of Utley, Howard, Youkilis and Pence. Two powerful lefties, and two powerful righties.
That’s not a bad foursome. Surely a lineup featuring a core like that night after night would be able to provide support for Philly’s starting pitching.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Philadelphia this year, as it’s pretty clear that Philly’s championship window is closing. But as long as they have their killer starting rotation, there is hope for them. All they have to do is make a deal to keep their championship window propped open.
It’s bound to happen. If Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has taught us anything in recent years, it’s that he’s not afraid to wheel and deal for the sake of winning now.
If he determines Youkilis is the best he can do, he’ll do it.
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2012 MLB Predictions: Philadelphia Phillies Season Preview
March 19, 2012 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
After going out and putting together one of the best starting rotations in recent memory, the Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to win more games than any team in baseball last season.
They did that, winning a grand total of 102 games. After that deed was done, the Phillies were supposed to go out and win the World Series.
They didn’t do that, losing to the eventual world champion St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series.
The Phillies made plenty of moves this offseason, but one thing that’s clear today is that this team is not as strong on paper as last year’s team was.
Here’s an extended look at how the Phillies are shaping up heading into the 2012 season.
2011 Record: 102-60
Key Arrivals (courtesy of BaseballProspectus.com): RHP Jonathan Papelbon (FA), LHP Raul Valdes (FA), RHP Brian Sanches (FA), OF Scott Podsednik (FA), SS Pete Orr (FA), LHP Pat Misch (FA), 3B Kevin Frandsen (FA), RHP Scott Elarton (FA), OF Laynce Nix (FA), RHP Dave Bush (FA), C Steven Lerud (FA), LHP David Purcey (FA), 3B Hector Luna (FA), OF Lou Montanez (FA), OF Jesus Morales (FA), LHP Jeremy Horst (from Cincinnati), OF Juan Pierre (FA), RHP Chad Qualls (FA), 1B Jim Thome (FA).
Key Departures: OF Ben Francisco (to Toronto), RHP Scott Mathieson (FA), SS Carlos Rivera (waivers), OF John Bowker (FA), SS Wilson Valdez (to Cincinnati), OF Raul Ibanez (FA), RHP Brad Lidge (FA), RHP Ryan Madson (FA), RHP Roy Oswalt (FA).
Projected Rotation (per official site)
- Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
- Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40, 1.03)
- Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79, 0.99)
- Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01, 1.23)
- Joe Blanton (1-2, 5.01, 1.48)
- Kyle Kendrick (8-6, 3.22, 1.22)
Projected Starters
C: Carlos Ruiz (.283/.371/.383)
1B: Ryan Howard (.253/.346/.488)*
2B: Chase Utley (.259/.344/.438)**
3B: Placido Polanco (.277/.335/.339)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (.268/.338/.399)
LF: John Mayberry (.273/.341/.442)
CF: Shane Victorino (.279/.355/.491)
RF: Hunter Pence (.314/.370/.502)
*Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that Howard could return in late May or early June. He tore his left Achilles against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the National League Division Series, and his recovery has not gone perfectly.
**ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has said that Utley is “doubtful” for Opening Day with nagging knee injuries.
Bullpen
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (R) (4-1, 31 SV, 3 BLSV, 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
Antonio Bastardo (L) (6-1, 8 SV, 17 HLD, 1 BLSV, 2.64, 0.93)
Jose Contreras (R) (0-0, 5 SV, 4 HLD, 3.86, 1.36)
Chad Qualls (R) (6-8, 22 HLD, 5 BLSV, 3.51, 1.25)
Kyle Kendrick (R) (8-6, 3.22, 1.22)
Michael Stutes (R) (6-2, 13 HLD, 3.63, 1.24)
David Herndon (R) (1-4, 1 SV, 4 HLD, 1 BLSV, 3.32, 1.37)
Scouting the Starting Pitching
Philadelphia’s starting rotation did not live up to the hype in 2011.
It surpassed it.
The numbers speak for themselves. Phillies starters logged 1,064.2 innings, pitched 18 complete games, threw seven shutouts and had 108 quality starts. They had a 2.86 ERA, a 7.88 K/9, a 1.87 BB/9 and a 1.11 WHIP.
All of those numbers were tops in the majors. Which, for the record, is remarkable.
Roy Halladay led the way, winning a team-high 19 games and pitching a team-high 233.2 innings. He pitched eight of the team’s 18 complete games, and he pitched fewer than seven innings just seven times.
I’m going to break down Halladay’s dominance in further detail in just a minute, but I’ll just say for now that he is everything his reputation suggests. He’s an ace in every sense of the word, and the simple truth is that no active pitcher in the majors has mastered the art of pitching quite like he has.
Though, Cliff Lee is no slouch. His first season back in Philadelphia was a roaring success. He won 17 games while pitching a career-high 232.2 innings with six complete games, all of which were shutouts.
What was interesting about Lee’s performance in 2011 was how he morphed into much more of a strikeout pitcher. He struck out a career-high 238 batters, which is amazing considering his previous career-high was 185 punchouts. His K/9 for the season was 9.21, which was coupled with a BB/9 of 1.62. His K/BB of 5.67 was the third-highest mark in the majors.
In addition, Lee’s ground-ball rate jumped up to 46.3 percent, which helped keep his opponents’ average at .229 and his opponents’ slugging percentage at .339.
In short, it was very, very difficult for hitters to hit Lee. If you needed numbers to realize that, well, there you go.
Halladay and Lee got the bulk of the attention, and deservedly so, but Cole Hamels had a fairly amazing season last year too. Opponents hit just .214 off him, the lowest such mark of Philly’s three aces. That’s a big reason he was able to manage a 0.99 WHIP, which ranked third in the majors.
Unlike Lee, Hamels actually struck out fewer hitters in 2011 than he had in the past. He had a K/9 over 9.00 in 2010, but it fell to 8.08 in 2011. He balanced things out by posting a career-low BB/9 of 1.83, and he induced more ground balls than he ever had before.
So I’d say Hamels took a few steps forward as a pitcher in 2011, and I think it’s fair to chalk that up to his being part of a friendly competition with two of the best pitchers in the game. Hamels didn’t want to be the ugly duckling of the group, so he upped his game.
Whatever his motivation was, the Phillies will gladly take a repeat performance. Goodness knows Hamels has been a little inconsistent in recent seasons.
Vance Worley turned out to be a pleasant surprise after he became a part of the rotation, but he’s going to have adjustments to make in his first full season in Philly’s rotation. He pitched really well right out of the gate, but hitters started getting to him in the second half of the season. It all culminated in a month of September in which hitters hit .288 with four homers off Worley.
Worley can help himself by decreasing his walks, as his BB/9 in 2011 was over 3.00. In addition, his curiously high 23.5 line-drive rate should have translated to a higher BABIP than .283. Don’t be surprised if Worley gives up a few more hits in 2012, leading to some regression.
But not too much regression. Worley benefited from some luck last season, but not an extreme amount. His FIP of 3.32 wasn’t much higher than his 3.01 ERA.
Joe Blanton is penciled into the No. 5 spot in this rotation, and he’s a guy who suffered from really bad luck in what starts he did make. Despite a K/9 of 7.62 and a ground-ball rate of 55 percent, Blanton had a .362 BABIP. It’s not a surprise his FIP was 3.63, way more than a run lower than his actual ERA.
Even still, Kyle Kendrick looks to be the better option for the No. 5 spot. He’s looked very good in spring training, and he’s coming off a season in which he had a 3.14 ERA as a starter.
Regardless of what happens with the No. 5 spot, this rotation is as solid as a rock. It was the best in the majors in 2011, and it’s a good bet that it will be the best rotation in the majors in 2012 too.
But of course, you already knew that.
Scouting the Bullpen
Philly’s bullpen was pretty good in 2011. Not great, but pretty good.
All told, Phillies relievers had a 3.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, figures that ranked in the middle of the road in the National League. The biggest problem Phillies relievers had was walks, as the bullpen had a BB/9 of 3.99.
It wasn’t all bad, though. Phillies relievers were only called on to pitch 412.1 innings, fewest in the National League. With the starters going so deep into games, the guys in the pen didn’t have to do all that much.
Things will be much the same in 2012, with the key difference being who will be closing games out in the ninth. Ryan Madson is out, and Jonathan Papelbon is in.
The Phillies are paying Papelbon way too much money, but he’ll be just fine closing games out as long as he repeats his performance for 2011. After struggling mightily with his control for two seasons, Pap lowered his BB/9 to 1.40, much closer to where he was in 2007 and 2008. He also upped his K/9 to 12.17.
Most importantly, Pap gave up just three home runs all season, posting an outstanding 4.8 HR/FB percentage. Home runs had been a problem for Pap, but he was very hard to take deep last season.
The bridge to Papelbon could be stronger, but the Phillies could ask for a much worse eighth inning guy than Antonio Bastardo. He had a very rough month of September last season, but beyond that he was very good, posting a 10.86 K/9 and an opponents’ batting average of .144. It’s hard to imagine him being that unhittable again, but he’s going to be just as dominant if he manages to get his BB/9 lower than 4.00.
The rest of this bullpen is made up of veterans and young arms, the lot of whom will spend the first couple of months jockeying for position. Because it’s a relatively unspectacular collection of arms, you have to worry about how the Phillies will fare when games turn into bullpen battles.
But let’s be real. As long as the Phillies’ rotation stays intact, they’re not going to have to worry about that. As long as they have quality arms to take care of the late innings — and they do — they’ll be fine.
Scouting the Hitting
The Phillies’ offensive woes in 2011 were blown way out of proportion, but there was no mistaking the fact that the Phillies were far from the offensive powerhouse that they used to be. They scored just 713 runs, seventh in the National League. They hit .253, slugged .395 and finished eighth in the National League with 153 home runs.
Get ready for things to be even worse in 2012.
The key issue with this Phillies lineup is health. I noted above that Ryan Howard is going to miss the first couple months of the season, and now it sounds like Chase Utley is going to be too wounded to play right out of the gate.
Just a couple seasons ago, these two guys were studs the Phillies could count on to drive in tons of runs. Now they’re both injury risks who aren’t going to come close to providing the kind of production they used to.
In addition, it must be kept in mind that Jimmy Rollins is not as young or as sturdy as he once was, and even Shane Victorino had to spend some time on the disabled list in 2011.
With Howard out for the foreseeable future and Utley ailing, it is absolutely imperative that Rollins and Victorino stay healthy, as the two of them can save Philly’s offense a lot of trouble by being productive at the top of the lineup.
All bets are off with Rollins. He just hasn’t been himself since his MVP season in 2007, as his batting averages have hovered well south of the .300 mark, and his on-base and slugging percentages have been lacking.
On the bright side, Rollins is still a threat to hit upwards of 15 home runs if he manages to stay healthy, and he’ll steal 30-plus bases too. Rollins can do himself a huge favor by taking more walks. That’s never been his specialty, but at this stage of his career he needs to realize that he’s just not capable of doing what he used to be able to with a bat in his hands.
Things are less concerning as they pertain to Victorino. He’s still relatively young, and his recent track record shows that he’ll be good for a batting average in the high .200s, an OBP in the mid .300s and roughly 15-20 home runs if he stays healthy.
In fact, Victorino could be even better than that. Let’s not forget that he was hitting .303/.376/.524 before the All-Star break last year. He managed to have an outstanding month of August, but his season took a turn for the worse in September.
At least Hunter Pence managed to stay consistent after the Phillies acquired him, hitting .324/.394/.560 after the team got him at the trade deadline. He was money in August, batting .340 with seven home runs.
Pence will likely slide into the cleanup spot with Howard out of the picture, meaning he’ll have to keep rolling along once the season starts. I’ll have more on his role with this club in just a minute.
Beyond the big names, one guy to keep an eye on in this lineup is John Mayberry, Jr. He hasn’t had a good spring, but the Phillies know as well as anyone that Mayberry gave the team a big lift in the final two months of the 2011 season, hitting .296 with six homers in August and .305 in September. If he comes anywhere close to that production in 2012, the Phillies will have some oomph in the lower half of their lineup.
And that would be a good thing, of course, because the lower half of their lineup doesn’t seem to have much oomph when you look at it on paper. Placido Polanco is a singles hitter, Ty Wigginton has hit below .250 each of the last two years, Carlos Ruiz’s value is in his defense and game-calling abilities and Domonic Brown has gone from being a blue-chip prospect to being a snakebit mess.
If all goes well, the guys who are healthy now will stay healthy long enough to hold the fort until Utley and Howard are able to return. If all keeps going well, the two of them are going to go back to hitting like they used to.
But that’s not going to happen. It’s a 162-game season, and there’s more than enough evidence to suggest that what can go wrong in baseball will go wrong.
Indeed, Murphy’s Law has already taken hold of this lineup. I take that as a sign that it’s going to be a long season for Philly’s bats.
Pitching Stud
Did I mention that Roy Halladay was good in 2011? I think I did, but I probably haven’t mentioned that he was better in 2011 than he was in 2010, when he won 21 games and captured the National League Cy Young.
Halladay missed a few more bats in 2011, upping his K/9 from 7.86 to 8.47 and ultimately finishing with a career-high 220 strikeouts. He did this while keeping his BB/9 at 1.35, tops in the National League among qualified starters.
Additionally, Halladay kept the ball in the yard much better than he did in 2010, when his HR/FB rate was 11.3 percent and he ended up surrendering 24 dingers. In 2011, Halladay’s HR/FB rate was 5.1 percent, and he surrendered just 10 dingers all season long.
In the end, Halladay had allowed an opponents’ batting average of just .239 and an opponents’ slugging percentage of .313. That second number tied him with Justin Verlander for the second-lowest opponents’ slugging percentage in the majors behind Clayton Kershaw (.298).
Looking back even further, Halladay leads all starters with an ERA of 2.80 since 2007, and he also leads all starters with 42 complete games since 2007. The next-closest guy on the list is Cliff Lee, and he has 24.
So like I said, Halladay is a true ace. When he’s on the mound, the Phillies won’t have to worry about a thing.
Hitting Stud
A couple years ago, it would have been very difficult to choose a Phillie for this particular honor. But these days, the only guy who can go here is Hunter Pence.
Pence has always been a good hitter, but he was a different animal altogether last season. His .314 batting average was a personal best for a season in which he logged more than 500 at-bats, and the same is true of his on-base percentage and his .502 slugging percentage.
When we see spikes like this, it’s typically because the hitter in question got smarter and started being more selective at the plate. This wasn’t the case with Pence, as he had a walk rate of just 8.4 percent, and he actually struck out more often in 2011 than he had in 2010 or 2009.
When Pence made contact, though, good things happened. He had a BABIP of .361, which put him in the same company as Miguel Cabrera. This was due primarily to Pence’s 17.9 line-drive percentage, a mark that’s better than average.
Pence took to Citizens Bank Park quite well, hitting .341 in Philly’s home park. You could see that coming because Pence has always been good at finding the gaps, and Citizens Bank Park is pretty inviting for hitters like that.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last season, they needed him to be an important cog in their lineup. This season, they’re going to need him to be even more important. The Phillies have no idea what they’re going to get out of Utley or Howard, so they need to know what they’re going to get out of Pence.
And make no mistake, they’re going to need a lot of out of him.
X-Factor
Fair warning: I am indeed about to make a case for Ryan Howard as Philly’s X-factor.
Howard used to be good for upwards of 45 home runs and a slugging percentage in the high .500s, not to mention roughly 140 RBI in a given season. In the last two seasons, Howard has been more of a 30-homer guy, one who simply doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.
There’s no specific reason for it. Howard has been striking out a lot, but that was the case with him even as far back as his MVP season in 2006. He’s not unlike Adam Dunn in that his big strike zone makes things difficult for him. He’s always taken his walks, but he’s always had a tendency to swing and miss too.
The problem Howard has faced over the last two seasons is that he just hasn’t been hitting the ball with authority. His ISO (isolated power) used to hover near or above .300, which is outstanding. In 2010, Howard’s ISO was .229. In 2010, it was .235. That’s not great. That’s merely above average.
Not surprisingly, Howard’s loss of raw power has led to a decline in home runs. No doubt you’ve already noticed that.
If you want to look on the bright side, maybe the rest Howard is getting at present is for the best. Maybe some time to recharge his batteries is exactly what he needs.
The Phillies are hoping so. When Howard returns, they need him to mash. If he does, they stand to win a lot of games. If he doesn’t, they stand to keep sputtering along offensively, leaving a lot of games left un-won.
Prospect to Watch
The Phillies have been busy bees making trades in recent seasons, so it’s not exactly a surprise that the upper levels of their farm system are totally devoid of standout players.
One guy who stands out in their system, however, is Trevor May, who the Phillies drafted in the fourth round back in 2008. He’s only made it as far as Single-A since then, but he’s starting to generate some positive buzz.
ESPN’s Keith Law has May ranked as the No. 76 prospect in baseball this year, up from his ranking of 93 in 2011. The only thing Law doesn’t like is that May’s curve and change both need work. Right now, he’s getting by primarily on his fastball, a tendency that will only get a young pitcher so far.
Still, May is only 22, so he has a lot of time left to improve. A few years from now, he’ll be knocking on the door of a rotation that will feature a couple pitchers who will be a little long in the tooth.
What the Phillies Will Do Well
You don’t need me to tell you that the Phillies are going to pitch well, but I will anyway.
The top three pitchers in Philly’s rotation combine to form a trio that no team in baseball can beat. Halladay, Lee and Hamels are all threats to pitch well over 200 innings, and when all is said and done all three of them will likely have ERAs under 3.00.
The back end of Philly’s rotation doesn’t hold a candle to the front end, but there are much worse back ends out there, regardless of who ends up earning the No. 5 spot.
Philly’s bullpen is not elite, but it doesn’t need to be with its rotation. The starters will take a lot of pressure off the relievers, and that will make life easier for everyone.
What the Phillies Won’t Do Well
The Phillies are going to be worse offensively in 2012 than they were in 2011. You can take that to the bank.
The injury to Howard was a huge enough blow, and Utley’s own injury woes don’t bode well. You never want to hear the words “nagging” (or “chronic”) and “knees” in the same sentence.
The Phillies have solid depth, but making up the difference won’t be easy. They’re going to struggle to score runs as long as Utley and Howard are out, and things won’t be overly shiny when those two are both in the lineup the rest of the way.
Also, the Phillies will likely be a below-average fielding team. They were last year, and they didn’t go out of their way to upgrade their team defense over the offseason.
Final Thoughts
Despite my gripes about Philly’s bats, this is still a very good team we’re talking about. The Phillies’ starting pitching will make sure the team stays slump-proof, and that will lead to a lot of wins.
But the Phillies aren’t winning 100 games again. Their lack of offensive firepower is going to cost them, and it simply cannot be taken for granted that their starting pitching is going to be as dominant as it was last season. A regression is in the cards.
The Phillies won’t win few than 90, though. In the end, I don’t think they’ll have any trouble making the playoffs.
Projected Record: 92-70, second in NL East, wild card berth.
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Zachary D. Rymer is a lifelong baseball junkie with an impressive collection of Nomar Garciaparra rookie cards and a knuckleball that is coming along. He loves the Red Sox and hates the Yankees, but he has a huge man-crush on Derek Jeter and would like nothing more than to have a few beers with Nick Swisher. He’s always down to talk some baseball, so feel free to hit him up on Twitter:
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Hunter Pence Phillies: Philly Now Has Everything It Needs to Win World Series
July 29, 2011 by Zachary D. Rymer
Filed under Fan News
If ever there was a day to be Philadelphia sports fan, let the record show that it was Friday, July 29, 2011.
On this day in sports history, the Philadelphia Eagles shocked the world by signing Pro Bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, who was widely considered the gem of the 2011 free agent class.
A few hours later, the Philadelphia Phillies completed a trade for Houston Astros right fielder Hunter Pence. And as if that wasn’t good enough, the Phillies got him for their price.
According to SI.com’s Jon Heyman, the Phillies were able to acquire Pence in exchange for top first base prospect Jonathan Singleton, top pitching prospect Jarred Cosart and two players to be named later.
Thus, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro was able to do the seemingly impossible by holding on to Domonic Brown, the Phillies’ ultra-talented 23-year-old outfielder. He was the player everyone wanted, but he’s staying in Philly until further notice.
But never mind the youngsters. This trade is all about Pence. After much speculation, he is finally coming to the City of Brotherly Love. And not a moment too soon.
As we should all be well aware by now, the Phillies lineup is not the same offensive force it used to be. It still boasts names like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez, but the thump that these names have provided in the past couple seasons just hasn’t been there in 2011. The Phillies are currently seventh in the National League in runs scored, and their .248 team batting average is 11th.
Assuming he doesn’t forget how to hit on the flight from Houston to Philadelphia, Pence will provide a much-needed boost to Philly’s sagging offensive production. He’s hitting .308 on the season, with 11 homers and 62 RBI. He will automatically become the Phillies’ leading hitter, and he will also take over the team lead in doubles (26) and total bases (188).
As far as Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is concerned, however, the best part about Pence is that he swings it strictly from the right side. A good right-handed bat is something the Phillies have been lacking ever since Jayson Werth split for Washington this offseason, and it is a shortcoming that has come back to bite the Phillies time and again this year.
Well, that problem is gone now. In fact, it’s safe to say that that particular problem has become a strength. And now that it has, the Phillies have fewer true weaknesses than any team in baseball.
Indeed, we’ve known all along that the Phillies can pitch. They are second in the major leagues with a team ERA of 3.11, and they are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the major league-lead with a grand total of 69 quality starts.
That naturally speaks volumes about Philly’s stacked rotation, which is of course led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. The news only gets better when you hear that Roy Oswalt is on the comeback trail.
If you wanted to, you could gripe about the Phillies bullpen being less than spectacular. That’s because it is, which could very well be the Phillies’ undoing before all is said and done. At the same time, it’s not like Philly’s pen is awful, as it has a 3.37 ERA. Believe it or not, that’s good for seventh in the NL.
All told, the Phillies are pretty well set when you go down the checklist of what it takes to win in baseball. They have an outstanding starting rotation, a solid bullpen and the Pence trade makes their lineup actually quite formidable.
Not bad for a team that many people already had pegged as the favorite to win the World Series. In fact, there should be no doubt whatsoever that the Phillies are the favorite to win it all.
And make no mistake, now the Phillies won’t have any excuses if they don’t win it all.
No pressure.
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