Philadelphia Phillies Retired Numbers: Who’s Next?

I suppose I wasn’t totally lost when I ran my poll (forever ago) on what team to cover next in my Retired Number Series. I have a list of possible teams sitting on my notes, and the Phillies have been towards the top of the list for a while now. So, when they tied at the top of the poll for which team to write about next, I gave this de facto tie breaker to them.

I don’t really have any specific feelings for the Phillies one way or the other, I guess. I do think that they are similar to the Mariners, though, in that they have many intriguing candidates on the horizon.

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Cole Hamels: Phillies Need to Learn from Brewers’ Mistake Not Trading Fielder

Cole Hamels should be traded, the sooner the better. 

It is the only way for the Phillies to keep their present backslide from turning into an outright collapse.  Coming off the heels of five terrific seasons, this team and this season have the feel of a once really great party that is now degenerating into chaos.

From 2007-2011, Phillies fans loved the five straight division titles.  They loved the 102 wins last season.  Heady days.  For the last five years, it was a bottle service blowout where miraculously the longer the party went on, the hotter everyone seemed to get. 

Every time the action started to flag, someone else better than the previous player walked through the door. 

“Brett Myers had to leave.  Oh, but look, it’s Brad Lidge.”  “Jamie Moyer said he was tired, he went home.  But Roy Halladay just showed up and brought Cliff Lee with him!”  “Chase Utley says his knee is bothering him and he needs to go crash in the back bedroom.  Thankfully, Hunter Pence’s date went home with a stomach virus so he came after all!” 

Time after glorious time, whenever it looked like the show might finally be over, Ruben Amaro Jr. came through with another signing, another trade, another move to keep the music playing.

Unfortunately, it is becoming horribly apparent that in propping the “we can win a title” window open for as long as possible, the Phillies exposed themselves to that phenomenon most party-goers can relate to.

For the Phillies, now, that same rollicking fiesta that carried them for five years has gone to a dark place.  It is 2:55 a.m.  The beautiful people who formed the epicenter of the good times have started falling asleep in corners or leaving altogether. 

Halladay is 4-5 with an ERA (3.98) that has not been this high since 2007.  Right now, of course, he is not pitching at all.  Lee is 0-3 and doesn’t even win when he shuts the Giants out for ten innings or is staked to three-run leads. 

And Utley and Ryan Howard sneaked out the back door; people are saying they are coming back, but you can only believe that if/when you see it. 

The Phillies are six games under .500.  Guests are leaving in droves: See the empty seats at Citizens’ Bank Park, which figure to be pronounced this week home to the Colorado Rockies.

Lee will win a game this season.  Halladay will pitch again this season.  Utley and Howard will play again this season.  Unfortunately, by the time they all come back to the party, the lights will already have been turned off.  It is over. 

It is not that they are nine games back in the division—they have to pass four teams to get back to the top from last place.  It is not that they are five games back in the wild card standings—they have to pass seven teams to get there.

There is no way to save 2012.  The time has come to work on saving 2013 and beyond.  Ironically, that process starts for the Phillies with trading this season’s most valuable player.  Cole Hamels must go.

He is both an elite talent and a proven playoff performer.  As the playoff contenders sort themselves out, teams will fight over Hamels.  They will do so as much to keep him away from other contending teams as they will to secure his services for themselves. 

The Phillies can jump-start the process of re-stocking their depleted farm system by igniting a bidding war for a World Series MVP.

This will be a bitter pill for the Phillies, as Hamels is home-grown.  Their fans will not like it any better. 

Trading Hamels will be the flying white flag the fanbase has not seen in almost a decade.  And he will be missed.  Here is the thing, though: Phillies fans can begin missing Hamels now or in November, when Hamels signs for eight years and $150M with the Dodgers, or the Yankees, or the Rangers.

If the Phillies need proof that this is the right move, they need only look directly behind them in the wild card standings.  There sit the Milwaukee Brewers, behind the Phillies only in winning percentage. 

The Brewers had the chance to sell Prince Fielder to the highest bidder at last season’s trade deadline.  They kept him, ultimately getting nothing of real value for Fielder when he signed with the Detroit Tigers in the past offseason.

The Brewers’ choice was defensible in that, with Fielder, the 2011 Brewers were an excellent team.  They won 96 games, they won their division, they won a playoff series.  With Fielder leaving, the Brewers likely knew that their 2011 iteration was their last best chance to win.  So they went for it. 

Conversely, the 2012 Phillies aren’t great…heck, they are not even good.

A year later, the Brewers are in a downward spiral and looking like sellers (Zack Greinke?) at the deadline themselves.

While they are at it, the Phillies could also consider parting with Shane Victorino and 2011 deadline darling Pence.  Whatever it takes to get younger, cheaper and eventually more competitive.

Nobody likes working through the housecleaning after the party ends.  Without it, though, stuff will really start to stink.

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Each Philadelphia Phillies Player’s Season Explained in 140 Characters or Less

The last place Philadelphia Phillies.

For a team with one of baseball’s largest payrolls, it doesn’t seem like much of a possibility, but somehow, it’s something that the Phillies have managed to accomplish.

Just a year after assembling the “four aces,” the Phillies are stuck in the National League East’s cellar. They went from having two Roys in the rotation to having none, though Roy Halladay will return, but who’s to say that the division crown isn’t out of reach by that point?

The Phillies’ disabled list has looked more like their 25-man roster than their 25-man roster this season. Halladay, Ryan Howard, Jose Contreras, Michael Martinez, Chase Utley, Justin De Fratus, Cliff Lee, Michael Stutes, Jim Thome, David Herndon, Laynce Nix, Vance Worley and Freddy Galvis have all hit the DL this season.

In more ways than one, it sure seems like a lost cause. The rhetoric has always been that if the Phillies could keep in the race with their big names on the DL, they would be able to jump back into the lead at some point once they returned.

But that possibility seems like it slips further and further away with each passing day. It may be time to admit that the Phillies, as they are currently constructed, just can’t make a run this year. Sure, they were dealt a bad hand, but that’s not an excuse.

Maybe it’s time to retool.

Until then, here’s a clever way of showing you what went wrong (or right, in that rare moment) for each of the Phillies’ players this season—in just 140 characters.

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MLB Trade Deadline: Cole Hamels and 4 Others Who Could Bolster a Rotation

As the days dwindle to the MLB trade deadline, teams will be searching left and right for starting pitching. Luckily for them, some top flight pitchers, including Cole Hamels, are on deck. 

Although the price tag will be high for a World Series champion like Hamels, there are several other quality starters who could be on the move this summer. 

With teams always in need of pitching help, let’s take a look at five starters who could fortify a team’s rotation for the second half of the season. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Some Hope in Looking Back at June 17 Standings

The hope for the 2012 season was to stay afloat until stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return from the disabled list.  Ace starter Roy Halladay was added to that list when he went down three weeks ago.  The Phillies were doing a pretty good job of hanging around and after 53 games were a season-high three games above .500 and just 2.5 games out of first.

Then, simultaneously, the Phillies went ice cold while the Nationals took off.  The Phils have gone 3-11 in their last 14 games, dropping to 31-36 and nine game back of first.  It hasn’t just been their bats this time either.  Since Roy Halladay was placed on the DL, the Phils have gone 6-12 and have averaged 5.3 runs allowed per game. Before Doc went on the DL, they were allowing 3.9 per game.  Here is some more ugliness since Halladay went to the shelf:

Cliff Lee: four starts, 0-14.72 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Cole Hamels: four starts, 2-2  6.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Joe Blanton:  four starts, 2-2  5.74 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Kyle Kendrick: three starts, 1-2  7.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

Vance Worley:  three starts, 0-1  2.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

 

Only Worley has been effective during this stretch.  It’s also been 19 games since the Phillies won a game where they scored fewer than six runs.  That’s asking a lot out of an offense that is forced to roll the Hector Luna’s and Mike Fontenot’s of the world out there on a consistent basis.

So the question has been asked many times recently: are the Phillies doomed?

Taking a look at the June 17th standings the previous four years, the answer is no.  Teams that were in first place or would have been the league’s wild card representative if the season ended on June 17 have made the playoffs 68.8 percent of the time.  Naturally that indicates that 31.2 percent of the time a team that is not in the field on June 17 has made the playoffs.

This time last season, the Red Sox, Indians and Giants were all in first place and failed to make the playoffs.  The Braves would have been the wild card team on June 17 and collapsed as well, so the percentage was 50 percent last year. 

Even more drastic, the 2005 Houston Astros went on to win the National League pennant.  Want to know what their record was on June 17, 2005?  How about 27-38. 

Two seasons earlier, the Florida Marlins won the World Series.  Their record on June 17, 2003 was 34-38.  Last year’s World Champs were 38-33 on this date and the AL pennant winners, the Texas Rangers, were 37-34.

The Phillies still have hope, but a number of things need to turn around to go on a run like the ’05 Astros, the ’03 Marlins, the ’07 Rockies or the ’10 Phillies who were 34-30 and in third place.

• Utley and Howard must come back and produce near the all-star level we are accustomed to seeing from them.
• Halladay must return to his Cy Young ways.
• Lee needs to pitch like a $21-million pitcher.
• Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino need to return to their catalyst ways setting the table for the big boppers to drive in.
• Someone, anyone needs to step up in the bullpen besides Jonathan Papelbon.
• Charlie Manuel needs to pitch Papelbon more in tight games.  Eight walk-off losses in which Papelbon didn’t even pitch, is beyond unacceptable.

Yes, things aren’t looking good for the ’12 Philadelphia Phillies but it’s far from over.  A number of teams have “righted the ship” and made their way to the postseason.  It’s a tall order this season, but it can be done.

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Carlos Ruiz Possibly Headed to the Disabled List; Implications for Phillies

Aside from the free-swinging Hunter Pence, the only other constant within the Philadelphia Phillies‘ positional depth chart has been the catcher we all know as Chooch. Unfortunately, Carlos Ruiz may have to spend some time on the DL.

Ruiz strained his left oblique during Friday night’s ball game versus the Toronto Blue Jays. Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has declared that Ruiz will have to rest a few games. On the other hand, we will know the extent of the oblique strain today as the Phillies re-evaluate their slugging backstop. Following Saturday’s re-evaluation will be a determination as to whether or not the organization will place Ruiz on the DL.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have already re-called catcher Erik Kratz from Triple-A Lehigh Valley and the full-time job has already been given to Brian Schneider while Ruiz is ailing.

Of course, a Ruiz injury will just follow suit to everything else that has happened to the Phillies since last October. Injuries to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Jose Contreras, Freddy Galvis and so on have given the Phillies’ roster more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.

Sprinkle in an oblique strain for Ruiz and it is time for the Phillies to come out and say what everyone is thinking—it’s time to sell.

Many folks have called this season a lost season. In a previous article, I discussed how the Phillies could save this season by preparing the roster for a return to a high level of competitiveness for 2013.

The loss of Ruiz, who is hitting .362 with eight home runs and 35 RBI, would be decimating.

What is more important is that Ruiz provided stability against left-handed pitchers, hitting .409 on the year with only five strike outs.

I don’t even have to touch on the magic that Ruiz performs behind home plate, either. He is one of the top defensive backstops in all of baseball.

While nothing has been confirmed yet, a loss of Ruiz would definitively place the Phillies in a position where they must begin shopping the like’s of Shane Victorino, Jim Thome, Joe Blanton, and (gulp) Cole Hamels.

Baseball is a business and the business environment of 2012 has been harsh for the Philadelphia Phillies. Now is the time to make the tough decisions and put the Phillies in a better place for 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Season Can Be Repaired, but at What Cost?

That sound you hear isn’t the toilet flushing. Rather, it is the panic that has emancipated itself from the high hopes that were brought forth when the Philadelphia Phillies first took to the diamond in 2012.

Most people saw through the gilded exterior of the 2012 Phillies 40-man roster to a problem that was looming ahead. The problem is three-fold, and here, halfway through June, it has finally reared its ugly head.

The problem isn’t that the Phillies are nine games behind the Washington Nationals in the N.L. East. The problem lies in the discarded waste laid forth by general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. in his quest to build a franchise that would be the king of the mountaintop, albeit a temporary mountaintop.

Die-hard fans and insiders, (yes, the die-hard phanatical fans in Philadelphia come first), both knew something was seriously wrong with the atmosphere in Philly. Ironically enough, while both contingents acknowledged something was wrong, no one knew what specifically was wrong.

Tired discussions of how a healthy Chase Utley and Ryan Howard could help this ballclub aside, the problem lies in GM Amaro Jr.’s management of this team.

First, Amaro Jr. was duped by Utley’s own prognosis concerning the lower half of his frame.

Second, Howard’s timetable to return has been unclear, and Amaro Jr. has not been forthright when it comes to public relations.

Third, no one in their right mind expected the Phillie rotation to pitch as splendidly as it did in 2011.

The first two topics speak for themselves.

On the third topic, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are monsters. Yet, all of the reports out of Clearwater during the spring were focused on Halladay’s diminished velocity, Lee’s elbow concerns and Hamels’ contract situation.

Thus far, the latter two issues have been more accurate than any reporting on Hamels’ ability to function with his long-term status in Philadelphia in doubt.

As good as Vance Worley was as a rookie, his BABIP and other metrics suggest that he pitched over his head.

Also, while Joe Blanton has looked good periodically in 2012, nobody expected Blanton to fully earn the $8.5 million he is making this year.

Meanwhile, Amaro Jr.’s idea for fortifying the house that manager Charlie Manuel built was to give the aging Jimmy Rollins a lucrative deal that will likely backfire (if it hasn’t already).

Furthermore, Amaro overpaid for a closer in Jonathan Papelbon, and bypassed power hitters like Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel for light-hitting Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre and Jim Thome.

While I recognize that Thome has been on a tear during interleague play, he offers nothing as a full-time player at 1B once interleague is over. Also, his pinch-hitting statistics are worse than former Phillie Ross Gload’s.

Needless to say, Amaro Jr. swung and missed big time with this roster.

Instead of locking up Cole Hamels with a long-term deal, he decided to sure up Jimmy Rollins at shortstop—a contract that Amaro Jr. will want to quickly forget come next season.

On the bright side, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, Juan Pierre, Jim Thome and Joe Blanton will likely be gone next year.

On the downside, so will Cole Hamels.

With that in mind, the Phillies can do three things to drastically help curb the downslide they are currently mired in.

First, trade Cole Hamels.

I know, it seems crazy. Even with Roy Halladay on the disabled list, the Phillies should trade Hamels to the highest bidder and receive the appropriate high-level prospects in return.

Then, in the offseason, the Phillies can turn around and re-sign Hamels (I know, nearly a pipe dream, but it can be done). By doing this, Amaro Jr. would be able to maximize his return for Hamels, and bring Hamels back to the red pinstripes in 2013.

Second, Amaro Jr. must move Jim Thome while he is hot. The Cleveland Indians would be the ideal situation, since their current DH, Johnny Damon, is swinging and missing at beach balls. The return on Thome may not be great, but it could be satisfactory.

Third, trade Shane Victorino and give Domonic Brown one more shot in the Show.

Victorino is not going to be back in Philly next season due to the contract he will likely get somewhere else, so why not move him for some long-term depth or a veteran reliever?

Amaro Jr. can also give former five-tool prospect Dom Brown one last chance to prove himself. It’s not like Brown isn’t tearing the cover off of the ball at Lehigh Valley.

While my three proposals are not likely to yield a playoff appearance for the Phillies in 2012, they are a realistic approach to saving the 2012 season while also keeping an eye on a rebound year in 2013.

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Is It Finally Time for the Phillies to Accept That 2012 Is a Lost Season?

Could rookie infielder Freddy Galvis be the physical embodiment of the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies?

Earlier this week, Galvis was diagosed with a fractured vertebra. To treat the injury, he’s been outfitted for a brace which he’ll have to wear for three weeks. During that time, he can’t engage in any physical activity. Galvis has to wear the brace at all times, except when he showers. 

But here’s the sentence from Matt Gelb’s Philadelphia Inquirer story that may as well be talking about the entire Phillies team, rather than just Galvis:

“The Phillies rookie second baseman will miss significant time with the injury, but the team is not ready to proclaim his season over.”

Just take out “rookie second baseman” and substitute “his” with “their,” and you’ve essentially summed up the 2012 season for the Phillies right there.

The Phillies did what they needed to do this week in taking two of three from the lowly Minnesota Twins. But prior to that, the Phightins slogged through one of their worst stretches of the season. They suffered a four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park to the Los Angeles Dodgers and lost two of three to the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

The Dodgers series was especially troubling. Not just because no team should lose all four games of a particular series at home, but because the Dodgers have the best record in the National League. This was a chance for the Phillies to see whether or not they could hang with the top competition in the NL. Viewing it as a test, however, the Phillies failed miserably.

Over the past week, Philadelphia has dropped three games in the NL East standings. Going into Friday’s play, the Phillies are nine games behind the first-place Washington Nationals.

They can still make a climb and get past the Miami Marlins, who are only two games ahead. The Braves are within striking range, too, four games up on the Phillies.

But are the Nationals already out of reach? They seem to be getting better each week and should continue to improve as their injured players come back. 

Yes, the Phillies have some wounded men set to return as well. But they’ll have a considerable hole to help dig out of when they get back on the field. 

The counter-argument is that the Phillies are only 4.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race, and with an additional team getting into the playoffs, there is still an excellent chance at getting into the postseason.

Yet there are seven teams ahead of the Phillies in the Wild Card standings. That’s quite a few clubs to climb over to get to the lead. All seven of them aren’t just going to fall down like dominoes and let the Phillies walk into the playoffs. 

But that Wild Card makes for a difficult decision on whether or not to pull the plug on 2012 and start selling off assets. Can general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. really justify doing so when the numbers say his team is still in the race and fans keep filling Citizens Bank Park with expectations of a playoff berth and postseason run? 

Unless the Phillies start winning some games and making a notable move up the standings, talk about them being sellers at the trade deadline is only going to get louder. ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden rates the Phillies as a “possible” seller, listing Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and Domonic Brown as players they could deal off. I think you could add Hunter Pence, Joe Blanton and maybe even Jonathan Papelbon to that list. 

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News composed an excellent post detailing what sort of return the Phillies could expect in return for each of the potential trade pieces on the current roster.

Going by Murphy’s formula, should the Phillies trade Hamels if they could get a top-50 prospect, along with two to three other players that are considered top-10 prospects for a particular team? 

If you’re the Phillies and you have doubts not only about being able to contend for the playoffs this year, but also question whether or not you can re-sign Hamels if he opts for free agency, don’t you have to make that move at this point? 

Re-signing Hamels can’t be completely written off as we near the three-month mark of the season. The Dodgers just signed Andre Ethier to a contract extension and he was due for free agency this winter also. 

But Hamels and his people don’t seem interested in signing any deal now. And why should they? Matt Cain got $127 million from the Giants. What could Hamels get when teams are competing for his services, some of whom figure to have big money to spend? 

The risk of losing Hamels with no return is too great at this point. And what is the reward if the Phillies do re-sign him? Another $20 million pitcher on the payroll that further handcuffs Amaro from using available funds to upgrade left field, third base or the bullpen? Would any money be left for possibly re-signing Shane Victorino? 

Of course, re-signing Hamels would give the Phillies a sure thing, unlike whatever prospects would be yielded in a trade. Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta looked like huge returns in deals for Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, respectively. But neither player has yet become the cornerstone player that’s expected with such a trade. 

Phillies fans surely don’t want to hear this. But writing off this season and selling some pieces now will help make next year’s team stronger. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will hopefully be back healthy to join whatever new additions Amaro can make at midseason and during the winter. Sacrificing 2012 for a better 2013 is a noble endeavor. 

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

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25 Biggest Letdowns of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Season Thus Far

Things are getting ugly for the Philadelphia Phillies, and fast.

For a team that was expected to come into the regular season as a favorite in the National League East, poised to contend for their sixth consecutive division crown in spite of injuries to some of their big players, you could easily make the argument that their 2012 season has been a letdown as a whole.

But when you break it into several, smaller letdowns, that’s when you start to uncover the bigger picture. It’s time to face the music. As it’s constructed now, this Phillies team just isn’t very good.

Coming into the regular season, that wasn’t supposed to be a problem. We knew the offense would miss Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, but an elite pitching staff and more than a couple of All-Stars that remained in the lineup were supposed to be enough to pick up the slack.

There’s still time for this Phillies team to turn things around, but that window of opportunity is fading fast. If they have any chance of roaring back into contention, they’ll need to solve these early season letdowns and leave them in the past, and fast.

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How the Philadelphia Phillies Have Stayed Afloat Despite Injuries

To say the Philadelphia Phillies are having an awful year is, at this point, a gross understatement.

Granted, they aren’t as bad as some of the worst teams in baseball. But based on the way they play some of their games, it sure seems like it. They did win two of three from the Minnesota Twins this week, but the game they lost was horrendous, and their win on Wednesday night that should have come easily was very close in the end.

Despite their struggles this season, the Phillies have managed to remain in striking distance in the NL East. Yes, they are dead last in the division, nine games out of first place with their 31-34 record. But even with their injuries and hitting and pitching issues, the Phils are still holding on.

With some of their most severe injuries coming to some of their biggest contributors, players like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Roy Halladay, there’s a reason why the Phillies have struggled. In light of these injuries, though, the Phils have held their own, and they deserve credit for at least being able to do that.

Here’s how the Phillies have managed to stay afloat.

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