Cliff Lee: Why Philadelphia Phillies Fans Should Be Fed Up with Losses

OK, I get it.  Lee hasn’t received much run support this season and wins is an overrated stat in determining the effectiveness of a starting pitcher.  With that being said, the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans should be expecting—and getting—more from Cliff Lee.

After the Phillies’ 5-4 loss Sunday, Lee is now 0-3 with a 3.18 ERA.  He has struck out 74 in 70.2 innings while walking just 13.

This season, Lee is the third-highest-paid pitcher in all of baseball, behind the Mets’ Johan Santana and the Yankees’ CC Sabathia. For $21.5 million, Lee is not getting it done, and at some point, he lost the ability to shut teams down once the Phillies have the lead.

It started in the NLDS last season against the eventual World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. After the Phillies roared back to crush the Cardinals 11-6 in Game 1, they handed Lee a 4-0 lead that should have put the NLDS on ice. 

However, Lee was torched by the likes of Ryan Theriot, Jon Jay and Rafael Furcal to blow the lead, the game, the series and the season.

For some reason, though, Lee gets a free pass from Phillies fans. Why?  I guess because he chose to come back to Philadelphia and spurned the New York Yankees.  But it’s not like he came back as a charity case.  Again, Lee is the third-highest-paid pitcher in all of baseball.

Let’s examine some of Lee’s starts this season:

• Had a 1-0 lead in the sixth vs the Pirates. Lee couldn’t hold it, Phils lose 2-1.
• Next start gave up three in the first to the Mets, Phils lose 5-2.
• Next time facing the Mets, had a 2-1 lead in the sixth, gave up a run and only lasts six innings in a 10-6 loss.
• Against Boston, allowed five runs in first three innings, burying the Phils as they lose 5-1.
• Staked a 2-0 lead early vs. the Cardinals on May 25th, then gives up a solo run in three consecutive innings to fall behind 3-2 only to be bailed out this time by the Phillies’ bats.
• Gave up a two-run double to Elian Herrera in his last start with two outs in the eighth to relinquish a 1-0 lead.
• And, today, given a 4-1 lead, promptly allows a two-out, three-run bomb to Steve Tolleson.

Now, look at these teams and think of how offensively challenged they are:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• New York Mets
• San Francisco Giants
• New York Mets
• Houston Astros
• Boston Red Sox
• St Louis Cardinals
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers (minus Matt Kemp)
• Baltimore Orioles

That’s who the third-highest-paid pitcher in baseball has been asked to face this season.  The Cardinals and Red Sox have solid lineups.  The rest do not. Yet the Phillies are 3-7 when Lee starts.  A .300 winning percentage—unacceptable.

At some point, a pitcher of Lee’s caliber needs to shut an opponent down when given a lead.  This Phillies team is awful once the other team comes from behind to tie the game up or take the lead.  A definite lack of fight. That’s another story altogether.

The free pass should be up for Lee.  He’s being paid like an ace, it’s time to win like an ace.

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Where Philadelphia Phillies, Playoff Contenders Would Be If Season Ended Today

One-third of the season has come and gone and the Phillies have spent the majority of it in last place in the NL East. 

It’s not the start that Ruben Amaro or Charlie Manuel envisioned.  There is still plenty of baseball to play, but it’s typically the 40-game mark that determines what kind of team you have. 

If the Phillies do not get anything from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and if they constantly have a starting pitcher on the DL (first Cliff Lee, Vance Worley and now Roy Halladay), then this team is probably right where it’s going to stay. 

They project to finish the season with a 78-84 record after their 9-6 win over the Baltimore Orioles last night.  Their only hope for the 2012 season are comebacks from Howard, Utley, and Halladay….and they must come back and play at something approaching an All-Star level.

With that being said, here is an updated look at how the postseason would look if the season ended today:

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Should the Philadelphia Phillies Focus on Looking for Bullpen Help?

The Philadelphia Phillies need reinforcements, and it seems as if they are going to start looking for bullpen help.

According to Jim Salisbury at Comcast Sports Network, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel “hinted” at looking for bullpen help.

However, the Phillies are struggling right now, and you have to wonder if the bullpen is really the biggest problem.

The Philadelphia bullpen does need help even though Jonathan Papelbon has been extraordinarily strong while Antonio Bastardo, Raul Valdes and Joe Savery are putting up solid campaigns.

The rest of the bullpen has been questionable, but in their defense, they have not always been handed the ball in the best situations.

In terms of runs scored, the Phillies are slightly above average with the 12th most in all of baseball. However, if you look at the results on game-by-game basis, there have been 14 games where the Phillies have scored one run or fewer.

That is not ideal production. They do well when they score at least a few runs, but if you can’t rely on that run production, winning becomes that much harder.

So what should Phillies do in this situation?

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will be returning eventually, but until then, the Phillies need to worry about the hole in their lineup rather than the perceived hole in their bullpen. Having a strong bullpen is great, but the offense needs to be able to generate a lead that the bullpen can then hold on to.

The Phillies will almost definitely be active throughout the trading season since they are currently sitting six games out of first place, so keep your eyes on their movements. Maybe something huge will develop as it often does when Ruben Amaro Jr. is in control.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

Follow @spinkickers

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Grading Each of Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 25 Draft Picks

Given the way the 2012 season has gone for the Philadelphia Phillies, it was only fitting that this year’s amateur draft be an event filled with surprises for the club.

Heading into this year’s draft, experts believed that the Phillies would focus on college bats with quick paths to the MLB, and while they selected a few college bats that could possibly fit that profile, it is obvious and undeniable that the Phillies remained within their uncomfortable “comfort zone”—high school players with less-than-certain futures but huge ceilings.

With another draft in the books, it will be years before we can fully assess this year’s crop of talent, but Ruben Amaro Jr., Marti Wolever and Co. will certainly be hoping for the best.

The following slideshow will offer up an initial grade for each of the Phillies’ first 25 selections. Did the Phillies make the right selection with certain picks? Did they reach for a guy, or let one slip past them?

There’s only one way to find out.

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NL Worst of the Night: Chad Qualls Blows Phillies’ Chance at Comeback Win

Thursday’s games in the National League gave us two excellent—or terrible—candidates for our “Worst of the Night” award. (OK, it’s not really an award. But you knew that.) 

In a 14-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros reliever Rhiner Cruz surrendered five runs, three hits and two walks in one inning of work. He gave up a two-run homer to Shane Robinson. Yet he also struck three batters out.

When Cruz came in for the seventh inning, the Astros were down, 5-2.  By the time he left and all of his baserunners scored, the score was 10-2. 

Over at Citizens Bank Park, Chad Qualls entered the game with the Los Angeles Dodgers holding a 4-3 ninth-inning lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. But he could only get one out as he allowed four runs (three earned, thanks to a Mike Fontenot error) on five hits. When Raul Valdes relieved Qualls, the Phillies were down, 8-3.

So which was the worst performance between Cruz and Qualls? It’s subjective, of course. But given that Qualls entered a one-run ballgame and his team still had a chance to win, I’ll argue that his meltdown hurt his team more.

Plus, he only lasted 0.1 of an inning, while Cruz at least got three outs. That gives Qualls the winning (losing?) edge.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Phillies. It’s among the many reasons that the team holds last place in the NL East and hasn’t been able to make much of a push up the standings.

To be fair, Qualls had actually pitched relatively well in recent games before his Thursday night outing. He hadn’t allowed a run in his past four appearances, giving up just one hit.

However, he’s struggled to put together a sustained streak of success. Prior to those four scoreless outings, he gave up three runs and four hits (three of them home runs) in 3.2 innings.

The Phillies could obviously use some help in their bullpen. But replacing Qualls wouldn’t completely turn around the team’s fortunes.

Right now, they also need help all over the roster. Suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Dodgers extended their losing streak to six games. Philadelphia is the one team in the NL East that appears to be falling out of the race, six games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves and four back of the Miami Marlins. 

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter.

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MLB Draft 2012: Analyzing the Philadelphia Phillies’ Selections

Over the past five seasons, Philadelphia Phillies fans have been among the most fortunate in all of baseball.

At this point in June, however, a sense of despair is creeping into the heart of the city. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley’s best days are far behind them, Roy Halladay can’t stay healthy and Cliff Lee has been unspectacular.

Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence have not been able to carry the team, and their record is hovering around .500. They are currently in last place in the NL East and things are not looking great for the future. But with the MLB Draft underway, Phillies fans can get a glimpse of the future and hopefully regain some optimism. Here is a breakdown of their top picks thus far.

 

Shane Watson, RHP (40)

Watson is a top high school prospect out of Lakewood High School in California. At a lanky 6’4″, 195 lbs, this righty has the look of an MLB starter. He does not throw as hard as one would expect from someone with his length, hovering around 90 mph. His specialty is his curveball, which is considered one of the best in the entire draft.

He could turn out to be as high as a second or third starter in the rotation in a few years, but if he does not develop his fastball it would not surprise me if he never made it out of the bullpen.

 

Mitch Gueller, RHP (54)

Another pitcher out of high school, Gueller is more of a project than Watson. The righty out of W.F. High School in Washington was scouted as both a pitcher and position player, and his athleticism is a definite reason he went this high in the draft.

His fastball hovers around the low 90s, and he compliments it with a curveball and changeup, which both need improvement. Gueller is known for his poise on the mound, and if he improves his command, could end up being a third or fourth starter in the Phillies’ rotation. 

 

Dylan Cozens, OF (77)

One of the most intriguing players in the draft, Cozens had signed a letter of intent to play defensive end for the University of Arizona before being drafted and announcing that he would sign with the Phillies. Cozens is an impressive 6’5″, 235 lbs., and has a lot of power from the left side of the plate. The corner outfielder was rated all over the place on different experts’ boards, and the verdict is still out on how much he can produce at the next level.

 

Alec Rash, RHP (95) 

The third right-handed pitcher to be taken by the Phillies, Rash is a raw prospect out of Adel DeSoto Minburn High School in Iowa. His fastball reaches 95, but he has issues with his mechanics and release. The Missouri recruit stands at 6’5″ and has a lot of upside. If he can polish his delivery and improve his off speed pitches, the sky is the limit for this kid.

 

Zach Green, SS/3B (125)

Green is a hitter that Philadelphia hopes can develop to stick at the MLB level. The righty can play either short or third, but is lauded mostly for his bat. The Oregon State recruit has quick hands and a good build at 6’3″, 185 lbs. Scouts have said his swing can be developed to add power and make him a dangerous all-around hitter. If this happens, he could be a great pinch hitter in a couple of seasons.

 

Chris Serritella, 1B (158)

Southern Illinois is not exactly a hotbed for baseball prospects, but the left-handed Serritella made enough of an impression on scouts to land in the fourth round. The Louisville Slugger Third Team All-American batted .389 in his junior season to win the Missouri Valley Conference batting title. If Serritella hits well in the Minors, he could get a shot to steal some starts from Ryan Howard down the road.

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Has Roy Halladay Fallen off MLB’s Pitching Pedestal for Good?

As baseball fans around the country know by now, Roy Halladay is hurting, both literally and figuratively. Doc currently sits on the 15-day DL with a latissimus dorsi strain that could keep him out for six to eight weeks. And when he was pitching, he posted a 4-5 record with a 3.98 ERA. Not the 2012 that Doc nor baseball and Phillies fans were envisioning.

Halladay hasn’t been on the DL since 2009, and he hasn’t been on the DL for an arm-related issue since 2004…until now. In spring training, there were concerns that Doc’s fastball velocity had been dropping, but the reason why was unclear. Possibly aging, possibly wear and tear—after all, Doc has logged just over 2600 innings throughout his career, and he’s led his league, if not all of baseball, in complete games each of the last five years. Simply put, he’s a workhorse.

In light of these recent events, is it still fair to consider Doc among the league’s elite starters? Is Roy Halladay truly an ace anymore? Or is he just falling from grace earlier than expected?

I’d say yes to those questions, but more arise just as quickly. But is Doc’s reign of supremacy over the rest of baseball coming to a close? One could argue that Halladay’s career—which was seemingly improving following his trade to Philadelphia from Toronto before the 2010 season—is now on the downturn, and that within the next couple of years, Doc could call it a day and ride off into the sunset known as retirement.

Let’s take a look at whether Doc Halladay has still got it or if his best days are behind him.

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Philadelphia Phillies MLB Draft 2012: Why Shane Watson Was a Great Selection

The Philadelphia Phillies made a good decision by going after right-handed pitcher Shane Watson with the 40th pick of the 2012 MLB draft.

Mark Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer asked Watson what his best pitch was:

“My curveball is my best pitch,” Watson said. “It is kind of like my Visa Express card, I can use it whenever I want.”

Obviously he has a sense of humor, but the main point in this quote is that he has a highly developed curveball. According to River Ave. Blues (the Yankees also had some interest in drafting Watson), that curveball sits in the upper 70s and low 80s.

He complements that with a fastball in the low 90s although since he is a large person (6’4″, 200 pounds) there is definitely the potential for more velocity. That being said, in the same article from River Ave. Blues, it was reported that he has hit 96 and 97 at showcase events, so that velocity might already be there.

The Philadelphia Phillies are definitely an aging team, and Watson will not make it to the major leagues for a little while. However, the Phillies do have an exciting crop of young starting pitchers coming through the minor leagues.

Watson will only add to that strength. All he really needs to do is add a changeup to remain in the starting rotation. His fastball would be all right, and he already has that strong curveball.

Compared to many high school pitchers, Watson is in a good place, and the Phillies made a good decision.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

Follow @spinkickers

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Why Ryan Howard, Chase Utley Are Now Incapable of Playing Phillies’ Hero Role

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will soon be back, but it’s too late. The Philadelphia Phillies are already doomed.

Should we slow down a bit?

Yeah, let’s slow down a bit.

The good news is that I’m not lying about Howard and Utley being back soon. According to a report from Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the two of them batted six times in an extended spring training game on Wednesday. 

Here’s how Salisbury characterized the situation: “If this were a football game, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would be entering the fourth quarter.”

Yup, they’re close.

Assuming there are no setbacks, both Howard and Utley could embark on minor league rehab assignments in a couple weeks, and join the Phillies a couple weeks later.

At this point, the Phillies can realistically expect to have both Howard and Utley back shortly after the All-Star break, and maybe even before if they’re lucky.

The bad news is it doesn’t matter.

The Phillies are basically counting on Howard and Utley to rescue them, and that’s asking too much. They may have been capable of heroically rescuing the Phillies once, but not anymore.

Phillies fans know the score when it comes to Howard.

He was the game’s most feared power hitter once upon a time, but his power numbers took a major dive in 2010 and 2011. He used to be good for a slugging percentage in the .550 range and an ISO (a measure of a hitter’s raw power) in the high .200s.

In 2010, he barely managed a slugging percentage over .500, and it dipped to .488 in 2011. His ISO was in the low .200s in both 2010 and 2011.

I won’t go so far as to call Howard old, but he’s definitely not a young man anymore. He was starting to crumble as an offensive force in 2010 and 2011, and then he ruptured his Achilles in the postseason.

He is now a declining player with a major injury and a long layoff in his wake. A player like that is not going to magically return to his glorious form of yesteryear.

The same is true of Utley, except his situation is even more disconcerting.

His decline as a hitter was even more sudden than Howard’s, and it was certainly more serious. He was a remarkably consistent producer for five straight seasons, and the next thing we knew he was slugging well below .500 and missing games left and right.

The time off will probably help Utley more than it will help Howard, but only to a degree. His knee problems are degenerative, meaning the fear of random flare-ups is not going to go away when—or if—he returns to the big club.

He’s going to need special treatment and time off, and there’s hardly any guarantee that he’s going to be able to hit like he used to when he is able to play.

Will Howard and Utley provide Philly’s offense with a boost?

Sure. It’s not like it’s going to be subtraction by addition. The two of them aren’t that hopeless.

Their returns just won’t be a significant boost, and that’s an issue.

The Phillies have a respectable team batting average, but they rank in the middle of the MLB in runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Theirs is a mediocre offense.

All Howard and Utley will do is make it a little less mediocre.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will probably also be dealing with the absence of staff ace Roy Halladay, who is going to be out for up to two months with a bum shoulder, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Staff ace No. 2 Cliff Lee has already spent some time on the DL this season, and he’s still winless on the season.

The bullpen is an entirely different headache.

Jonathan Papelbon has been good. So has Antonio Bastardo.

Everyone else, not so much. It’s not a shock that the Phillies have one of the highest bullpen ERAs in the majors.

Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.” The Phillies’ record of 28-29, entering Wednesday, says they are both a subpar ballclub and a last-place ballclub. 

As if the Phillies weren’t already in enough trouble, this year they have the added challenge of coming back and competing in a very deep National League East.

It only had two legit contenders last year, and this year it has four legit contenders—all of whom are ahead of the Phillies in the standings.

Of the bunch, I for one can see the Mets falling off the pace. But the Nationals, Marlins and Braves are quality clubs who are going to hang around all season.

The Phillies are currently on pace to win 80 games. It’s probably going to take at least 90 to make the playoffs.

If the Phillies are still one game under .500 at the All-Star break (43-44), they’re going to have to play .630 baseball down the stretch to even have a shot at the postseason.

The old versions of Howard and Utley could have made that kind of impact, but not these new ones. Their returns will be too little, too late.

This just isn’t the Phillies’ year.

 

If you want to talk baseball and/or yell at me, hit me up on Twitter.

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Predicting the End-Year Stats for All 25 Philadelphia Phillies Players

The 2012 season has been a roller coaster ride of twists, turns, loops, spins, climbs, and dives for the Philadelphia Phillies, and we’re only two months in.

It’s been an odd season for this Phillies’ ball club. With some of the injuries they’ve faced, including guys like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, you wouldn’t expect this ball club to be in contention, but they are.

Though they’ve been in last place for most of the season, the Phillies have remained within striking distance throughout the season, and that is undoubtedly because of the fact that their fill-ins, replacement, and bench players have played well.

They’ve also had a number of guys who played smaller roles in the past step up and become major contributors.

But if the Phillies have any intention of conquering the challenging National League East and laying claim to their sixth consecutive division crown, they’re going to need certain players to have good statistical seasons.

Here’s a little forecast of what the player’s numbers could look like on the final day of the season.

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