Should the Phillies Wait to Extend Cole Hamels or Do It Now?

Cole Hamels is a World Series MVP, a world-class pitcher, left-handed and just 28 years old.  He’s got that SoCal cool about him, a slightly high-pitched and nerdy sounding voice and a smokin’ wife who once stripped for peanut butter during a challenge on Survivor.

He’s also going to be very, very, very rich very soon.

Many experts believe that the six year, $127.5 million dollar contract extension Matt Cain signed at the beginning of April set the market for Hamels’ extension.  I personally believe he’s worth even more, and that he could easily garner $150 million or more on the open market this winter.

And so the Phillies have a dilemma on their hands: Should they push to re-sign Cole Hamels as soon as possible, or should they wait until after the season to address the issue?

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Philadelphia Phillies: How the Phillies Can Sweep the Washington Nationals

When the baseball schedule was first released, not many expected a late May series between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies to be one with a lot of importance. While many may have expected the series to feature the division leader and the team in the cellar, it is a safe bet that not many expected the Phillies to be in the cellar and the Nationals to be near the top, a few games behind the Atlanta Braves for the division lead.

It may not have been the expected result but nevertheless that is how things have shaken out and that is likely what will be the story of the series.

For the Phillies, this series is almost make or break. They are coming off of a stretch which saw them win seven of their last 11 games, but which also included two back-to-back losses against the struggling, under .500 Boston Red Sox. During this stretch the Phillies got their record above .500 for the first time since their season opening win.

With the Nationals in a bit of a slide, the Braves have taken over first place. Their record is good enough for third best in MLB and as they keep winning, it is going to become harder and harder for the Phillies to catch up to them, especially if they do not manage to win this series against the Nationals.

It won’t be easy, but the Phillies have been a much better team in May. Also, with the injuries the Nationals have suffered, the Phils would be primed to take advantage. As the Nationals are a young and up and coming team, winning this series would be a small way that the Phillies could prove to their NL East opponents, that their reign at the top is not yet over.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Starter Vance Worley Likely to Require Offseason Surgery

According to a report by NBC’s HardballTalk, starting pitcher Vance Worley will require offseason surgery to fix bone chips in his right elbow. Like the Philadelphia Phillies, 21-21 and last in the NL East, needed any more bad news.

Worley was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday due to what he described as “soreness” in his right elbow. As the report dictates, an MRI revealed bone chips that will require surgery; even so, Worley plans to return as scheduled off of the DL:

“Man up…That’s the only thing I can do. I’ll just grit and grind out there.”

Doesn’t sound too reassuring.

There have been rumors that Worley has already been working to change his delivery in order to compensate for the pain he is feeling. Changing one’s delivery to avoid pain never ends well, and the long-term consequences for Vance’s shoulder could be serious. 

Even thinking completely in baseball terms, a change in delivery could mean a less effective pitcher. Worley has gone 15-6 with a 2.91 ERA thus far in his career with the Phillies, numbers that they can’t afford to lose at this point in time; they are five games behind the division-leading Braves.

The Phillies coaching staff is faced with a tough decision: hope for the best and allow Worley to do his thing, or play it safe, giving Worley surgery now and allowing him to recover, and possibly lose out on a postseason spot.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Risks and Rewards of Pursuing Kevin Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis is almost definitely going to be out of Boston by the trade deadline.

Will Middlebrooks has been proving himself as the third baseman of the future at Fenway Park, and that leaves very little room for the man who was once deemed “The Greek God of Walks.”

These rumors have been circulating for a few weeks, but today Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reported on Twitter that the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Indians are among the teams keeping track of Youkilis on his minor league rehab.

My only thought in this situation is confusion about the potential risks and rewards.

In one sense, I appreciate the fact that the Phillies might be looking for a more powerful right-handed bat than Placido Polanco. Youkilis has hit at least 15 home runs the past five seasons while Polanco has only hit 10 home runs one time in the last five years. This could be a very high potential reward for a team that needs to generate some type of offense.

However, if there really could be potential competition in the market for Youkilis from the Indians for others, his price tag might become disproportionately inflated in relation to the risk that his new team would be absorbing.

Youkilis has hit .219 with two home runs and nine RBI with the Boston Red Sox this season. On top of that, while he has always been known for his high on-base percentage, he has struck out four times more than he has walked in 2012 (20 versus five).

2011 saw Youkilis start to fade, and he has not done very much to turn it around in 2012.

I am not saying that Youkilis has no hope and should hang up his spikes. He might rebound. Players have had worse seasons and continued their careers with great success.

Rather, if the Phillies are thinking about making this trade, they need to be very careful that they do not overpay for his potential reward. There would be a lot of risk, and the Phillies are not necessarily in a position to take more than they should.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

Follow @spinkickers

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Reasons to Believe the Phillies Can Still Take NL East

At the quarter pole of the 2012 season, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in unfamiliar territory—staring up at the rest of the National League East.  And while the Phightins are off to their slowest start in the last five years, there’s still reason to believe Philadelphia can claim its sixth consecutive division crown.  

Here are five good reasons to believe.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Just Waive Jim Thome Already

In the offseason, with Ryan Howard out for an extended period of time, the Philadelphia Phillies grabbed Jim Thome for $1.25 million. 

That experiment has run its course, and it’s time for the club to part ways with the aging bat.

Here are six reasons why:

 

1.  He’s hurt

Thome has been on the DL all month with a bad back. In the past, he’s had troubles with his elbow and his legs. Even if comes back in a week or two, whether he will be 100 percent is doubtful.  

2.  He can’t field to save his life

Thome has 137 career errors, and career is 31 total-zone, total-fielding runs below average. He has a career -17.1 defensive wins-above-replacement and has 13 seasons of a dWAR of -0.5 or worse.  

Also, did I mention he has no legs?

3.  Nor can he hit anymore

This season with the Phillies, Thome has gone 2-for-18, hasn’t scored, hasn’t driven anybody in and hasn’t had an extra base hit. He’s had only three home runs and only seven extra-base hits in his last 103 plate appearances.  

4.  Philly already has enough first basemen

Off the top of your head, can you tell me how many people have played first for the Phillies in the last month and a half?

If you said “five,” you’re correct: the other four are Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix and Hector Luna.

Of those five, the one with the lowest batting average at the position is…Thome.  The only one without an extra-base hit is…Thome.

To be fair, Nix is on the DL, and Mayberry is really more of a converted outfielder, but that still leaves Wiggington, who is batting .308 with 10 RBIs and an .814 OPS when at the first base position.

And journeyman Triple-A callup Luna to back him up rather than Thome.     

5.  Ryan Howard will be back soon

Howard replaced Thome at first base for the Phillies in 2005. Then, Thome replaced Howard at first at the beginning of this season. Howard has begun an extended rehab assignment in Clearwater and will be ready to again replace Thome before the All-Star break, possibly well before.   

6.  It’s time for Thome to retire

Thome will be 42 before the season is over. He hasn’t hit 30 homers since 2008. He hasn’t had 250 total bases or even played 130 games in a season since then either.

In the past seven seasons, he’s fielded a grand total of 55 innings. He’s stolen one base in the last decade. 

He’s either cemented his case for the Hall of Fame, or is at the point where he can’t do anything more to help it.

Bottom line: The Phillies need to waive Jim Thome.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Making Statements in 2012

After starting out 2012 sluggishly, the Philadelphia Phillies have put the pedal to the medal over the last week, winning six straight games and seven out of eight against San Diego, Houston, Chicago, and now Boston.

There have been plenty of disappointments so far—Chad Qualls, John Mayberry Jr, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino—but plenty of Phillies have made inroads in their careers as they soar past expectations.

The offense seems back on track, with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley set to return within the next six weeks, the starting pitching is as solid as ever and the fielding hasn’t dipped since last year with the exception of a few extreme cases. Even though they are four games back and last in the division, this team seems poised to make a run thanks to a handful of players making the most of their playing time. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Shouldn’t Even Think About Selling Yet

According to one rival official, Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has “zero” interest in trading either Cole Hamels or Shane Victorino.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reported this earlier today in a statement that seems contrary to all of the rumors that have been swirling around the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are in last place and all last-place teams need to sell.

Right now, the Phillies are sitting four games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves with approximately three quarters of the season remaining. They are obviously not living up to the high standard that they have set over the past several seasons.

Apparently, many people think that this is a cause to panic and that the Phillies should immediately start selling.

After all, if the Phillies aren’t going to do anything this season, why not try to cut your losses and bring in some talent before Hamels and Victorino might depart on the open market with limited compensation?

However, there is a problem with this line of argument. Who exactly says that the Phillies aren’t going to do anything this season?

A four-game deficit is really not that much when you look at the entire season in perspective and the fact that it is only a quarter complete. Bigger deficits have been overcome in shorter periods of time.

The bigger concern is probably rooted in the fact that the Phillies are not playing that well. The bullpen has not been able to hold on to leads, and, outside of Carlos Ruiz, the offense has not been nearly as productive as it has been in the past.

However, that concern is also somewhat suspect.

The bullpen needs to be fixed, but at the same time, there are some bright spots. Jonathan Papelbon has pitched very well when he has been given the opportunity, and Antonio Bastardo hasn’t missed a beat since his breakout in 2011.

In terms of the lineup, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are coming.

I know that many people doubt whether or not they will make an immediate impact since recovery does take time. Nevertheless, given their previous track record, it is hard to believe that their returns would not bring about an overall increase in run production.

The degree of that increase is harder to quantify, but Howard and Utley should make a positive change in the lineup.

When looking at these two major concerns of being in last place right now as well as some poor performances by the Phillies themselves, it is easy to think that the Phillies should sell.

However, at this point in the season, that discussion should not be happening whatsoever. Ruben Amaro Jr. is absolutely right to not be thinking about selling right now.

The season is too young and the Phillies are still too close to start waving the white flag yet.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

Follow @spinkickers

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Fueled by Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies Are Making a Push in NL East

If you enjoyed taking your shots at the Philadelphia Phillies while they had a losing record and were digging themselves a last-place hole in the NL East, you might have to find another team to jeer now.

As disappointing as the Phillies have been this season, they had never fallen lower than four games under .500. No, a 6.5-game deficit in the division standings didn’t look good, but that’s hardly an insurmountable obstacle with more than 120 games remaining on the schedule. 

So talking about the Phillies being sellers at the trade deadline, as ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden did this week and I did myself last week, may have been a bit premature.

The Phillies almost certainly have tabled such talk after leaping over the .500 hurdle Thursday night with an 8-7 win over the Chicago Cubs. That gave the Fightins a winning record for the first time since they began the season at 1-0.

This is still a last-place team with four teams between them and the NL East’s top spot. But the Phillies are only five-and-a-half games back and the division is pretty tightly packed. The Miami Marlins are two-and-a-half games ahead for fourth place, while the New York Mets are only one game better for third. 

One good or bad streak could change things in a big way. The Phillies have put themselves in this position by winning five in a row and six of their last seven.

Philadelphia’s schedule presented just such an opportunity, with the Padres, Astros and Cubs laid out for them. Had the Phillies not been able to capitalize on lesser competition, then the concerns would have been more valid.

After helping them to right the ship a bit, the Phillies’ schedule will soon allow them to directly influence the NL East standings. Following this weekend’s interleague series with the Red Sox, Philadelphia will play nine of its next 13 games against division rivals. That could help them move up the standings in a big way. 

One big factor in the Phillies’ recent surge has been catcher Carlos Ruiz. Since Apr. 24, when his batting average was a season-low .265 with an OPS of .745, Ruiz’s bat has caught fire. He’s batted .438 (28-for-64) with five home runs and 23 RBI.

During that stretch, Ruiz’s slash average to .363/.405/.619. That .363 batting average is currently the third-best in the NL, with his 1.024 OPS ranked as the sixth-highest total.

You might not expect Ruiz’s name to be listed with the best hitters in baseball, yet there he is. 

For a team without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in its lineup, while Hunter Pence (7.88 OPS), Shane Victorino (.694) and Jimmy Rollins (.580) have struggled, Ruiz’s performance has made a huge difference for the Phillies.

The bullpen remains a major concern, however, and will have to show some significant improvement for the Phillies to keep making a push. Jake Diekman was awful in his second major league appearance, giving up four runs on one hit and two walks in just two-thirds of an inning. Chad Qualls and Jose Contreras don’t leave the team with many good options in middle relief, other than Antonio Bastardo.

If Ruben Amaro has to make one move, bolstering the bullpen should be it. And if that’s the most significant concern Amaro has to address right now, then the Phillies might be in better shape than many of us thought.

They’re certainly beginning to look that way.

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

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Philadelphia Phillies: Grading Every GM in Franchise History

Being a general manager in MLB can be incredibly rewarding or incredibly infuriating. Of course, as with most things in this game, that depends on just how successful you are.

If you were the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies in 1980 or 2008, you’ll probably never have to pay for another meal in this town. The math is simple: When a GM’s team is going well, he rides on cloud nine. He becomes the master assembler who fit all of the pieces together, like the perfect jigsaw puzzle.

General managers for losing teams don’t have as much fun as their winning colleagues. When the product on the field is less than impressive, the general manager shoulders a large chunk of the blame. They made all of the wrong decisions. The pieces don’t fit.

Anyone with a passing knowledge of the Phillies’ history knows that they have had their share of each of those seasons—the really good ones and the really bad ones. They’ve even had a quite a few average ones.

Looking at what the future holds for this club, particularly just how hot Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s seat would be if this Phillies club missed the postseason, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at each of the Phillies’ 11 general managers.

Each general manager will have two slides. The first will give a brief review of their tenure, including some of their best and worst transactions as well as draft picks (if applicable), and the second will feature my grade of said general manager. Who’s been the best? Who knows. But one thing is certain.

It’s been the good, the bad and the ugly.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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