Fantasy Baseball 2012: NL East Sleepers and Prospects

The NL East is shaping up to be one of the most exciting divisions in all of baseball in 2012.

The offensively-challenged Phillies will most likely be without Ryan Howard for at least a month, but still have arguably the best rotation in the National League.

The Braves haven't added or lost any major pieces this offseason, but a bounce-back year from Jason Heyward could help bring them their first division title since 2005.

The Nationals are getting Stephen Strasburg back and their trade for Gio Gonzalez indicates that they think they are in position to win now.

The Mets are in rebuilding mode, but they are getting Johan Santana and Ike Davis back from injuries.

The Marlins made some major acquisitions this offseason, adding Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. They're also getting Josh Johnson, their ace pitcher, back from injury.

From a fantasy baseball perspective there are plenty of studs that will be owned by every team, but let's take a look at some of the less heralded players that can help you win your league this year.

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Philadelphia Phillies In Love With Idea of Juan Pierre, Not Real Juan Pierre

You ever watch Role Models? You know, that halfway-decent Paul Rudd flick (that’s constantly mistaken for a Judd Apatow joint, when it is pointedly not Judd Apatow joint material) with the Stifler guy? About the two screw ups whose punishment for trashing a statue outside a school calls for the mentorship of a couple of troubled boys from hell?

Remember what Augie (dorky kid in glasses, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, who played McLovin in Superbad) says to Danny (played by Rudd) in the restaurant when asked what he wants to drink?

“I like the idea of Coke much better than I actually like Coke.”

(Thank you, commenter Michael.)

Simple humor. Easy laugh.

Except for, he’s totally right. In fact, there’s a lot in life that makes us confuse the idea of something and that something in actuality. People do it all the time with relationships. Scared, stubborn or comfortable, they ride out bad things far longer than they should, chasing the ghost of what their “thing” used to be, and clearly isn’t anymore.

That’s kind of what the Phillies did with Juan Pierre, signed to a minor league deal earlier today.

Believe me, I LOVE Juan Pierre, the Idea. He seems the ideal upgrade from Wilson Valdez, dealt to the Reds yesterday straight-up for Jeremy Horst. He seems the perfect addition of speed. He, a near-lifetime NL guy—he played with the White Sox in 2010 and 2011, his only AL stop in 12 years, seems to get the mutant brand of baseball the Phillies (like all NL teams) play. And given how he enjoyed a renaissance during the Dodgers—his .757 OPS in 2009 was the second best of his career—50 games without Manny Ramirez, you figure he’s a pretty good “team” guy that the Phillies, frankly, could use right about now.

You figure, lop together career averages of a .296 BA, .707 OPS and, more than EVERY other selling point, 50 stolen bases, and you’re set. Right?

Then you realize. You’re talking about the Idea, and not Juan Pierre.

For one, he’s not the utility infielder Valdez was. Checked his Baseball-Reference.com page up and down, and I’m pretty sure Roy Oswalt has spent more time in left field than Pierre has in the dirt.

Which reminds me:

Pierre’s speed doesn’t exactly come as advertised. His stolen base count peaked in 2007, when he slid into 64 freebies. But he’s taken fewer bases every (40 in 2008) year (30 in 2009) since (27 in 2011). And for those of you stoked about the 68 he grabbed in 2010, instead consider that last parenthetical note evidence of his coming down to earth.

If that doesn’t do it enough for you, you can peep his FanGraphs speed rating, which has aligned pretty closely with what you’d expect of aging, 32-year-old legs. A career-high 7.9 in 2009, followed by 6.9 and 5.2 thereafter.

And if not for quicks, why make the move?

And if not for that impending move, why deal Valdez?

That’s the assumption, right? That Pierre’s every-so-often speed in the lineup would more than compensate for the sprinkled-in at-bats you’d inevitably give Valdez. So why not make unmistakably interconnected deals one and two?

Why not? Because your infield is in shambles. Ryan Howard won’t start the season, and who knows what he’ll be able to contribute and when? Jim Thome was signed, you figured, to tap in. Except for now the organization thinks the better idea is a better-suited-for-third-base Ty Wigginton, who, you figured, would make the perfect contingency plan for Placido Polanco. (At least much better than the slower-than-cement Michael Martinez.)

And in case Jimmy Rolllins’ hamstring explodes, a pretty foreseeable scenario on recently made content 33-year-old legs.

That’s why not.

But now? I don’t know.

The team is already stacked at outfield, with promising players, but ones who need repetition. Or, in the case of Raul Ibanez, playing time to justify their ludicrous contracts. Or, in the case of Hunter Pence, proven players who you can't succeed without. (Also in the case of Pence, justification for clearing out the last crumbs of talent from your farm system, Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton.) Or, in the case of John Mayberry Jr. and Domonic Brown, finality on whether or not they’ll realize their potential.

In a non-salary cap sport, you take waivers. It’s smart business.

But bringing in a guy like Juan Pierre feels like the organization is saying something. What?

And it feels like they’re clinging to the Juan Pierre, the Idea, instead of Juan Pierre, the Player.

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Jonathan Papelbon: Did Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jump the Gun?

Since assuming the role of general manager following the Philadelphia Phillies' 2008 championship season, Ruben Amaro has made the team anything but boring.  

Rube's consistent, bold moves have brought the Phillies into the pantheon of such big-market, big-spending teams as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs.  

As evidenced by his acquisitions of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence: when Ruben Amaro wants a player, Ruben Amaro gets a player.

While Amaro has proven to be an excellent, merciless tradesman, he does have one recurring flaw as a baseball executive: a lack of patience.

The "I see that toy, I want that toy, I'm going to throw a tantrum until I get that toy/lollipop/middle-reliever" thought process that a five-year-old goes through when taken to the store is the same thought process that afflicts Rube when he goes to the bargaining table with free agents and players with expiring contracts down the road. 

We saw it when he outbid himself super-early on Ryan Howard (back when he still had two intact Achilles tendons), and when he pounced on the elderly Raul Ibanez for more than 10 million a year over three years (when Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu later got deals for two years, $8 million per year and one-year, $5 million, respectively).

You can add this offseason's blitzkrieg signing of closer Jonathan Papelbon to that list.

Don't take that the wrong way, though; Papelbon is one of the best closers in the game right now, and a guy I'm thrilled to know will be wearing a Phillies uniform next year.  

However, Cinco Ocho signed for a guaranteed three years and $41.5 million more than ex-Phillies closer Ryan Madson got just two months later.  

This comparison looks even worse for the Phillies when you consider that closer is a volatile position, where players usually have short peaks, only pitch around 60-70 innings a year and are routinely replaced during the regular season by guys who go on to become the next big thing.  

Case in point, Madson, who entered the offseason as one of the most sought-after free-agent relievers, likely would have entered last season as the set-up man if Brad Lidge were healthy.

Another tidbit to think about: before Papelbon, B.J. Ryan previously received the largest contract ever for a relief pitcher.  It's not a good thing that you're saying "Oh yeah, that guy, whatever happened to him?" 

Exciting as it was that Amaro locked up his new crush early, it would have been more prudent for him—and the Phillies' future financial flexibility—to have waited until the market thinned out.  

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Breaking Down the Phillies’ Top 5 Prospects

A flurry of trades over the last three seasons have done a number on the Philadelphia Phillies' farm system. It does speak to how well the front office has drafted that they have been able to acquire Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence. 

While the major league team is still competing for championships, the system is as weak as it has been in years. There is some quality in the lower levels of the minors, but not a lot of impact right now. That will likely make it difficult for them to trade for an impact player this year to fill any potential holes. 

Nevertheless, here are the top five prospects for the Philadelphia Phillies entering the 2012 season.

 

1. Trevor May, RHP, 22

May elevated himself to the top of the Phillies' system thanks to a combination of his projection and the trade of Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton last year. He has a lot of question marks surrounding him right now, but the upside is there for him to be an impact starter at the major league level. 

 

Strengths

Combining great size—May is listed at 6'5", 230 pounds—and power stuff, May has the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter. His height allows him to throw on a downhill plane, which will limit the number of home runs the opposition hits against him. 

 

Weaknesses

His two biggest problems are below-average command and his secondary pitches. The command hurts everything else that he does, and could prevent him from reaching his full potential. 

 

Report

The raw stuff is good enough that it is possible to envision a scenario in which he develops into a No. 2 starter in the big leagues. If the command doesn't improve, he will likely be a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. 

ETA: 2013

 

2. Sebastian Valle, C, 21

The Phillies have Valle slotted in as their future starting catcher, and it is easy to see why when you watch him play. He has solid all-around tools, though the results on the field have not always been there for him. He hit just .284/.312/.394 in class High-A last season. 

 

Strengths

Valle is an athletic catcher who already shows good defensive skills. He has a solid arm to go with good blocking and receiving skills behind the plate. He shows tremendous bat speed, which provides hope that his offense will pick up as he gets more comfortable playing full-season ball.

 

Weaknesses

Impressive bat speed aside, Valle does not have a lot of patience at the plate. He also has a big leg kick that makes his swing take longer than it should to get through the zone. 

 

Report

Valle is still learning the catcher position, but by the time he reaches his peak he should be above average behind the plate. For him to live up to his potential, he has to improve with the bat. He needs to get a better feel for the strike zone and use his bat speed to hit for more power. 

ETA: 2014

 

3. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP, 21

Pettibone has gotten better every season in professional baseball. He finished the 2011 season with career highs in innings pitched (161), strikeouts (115) and had the lowest walk rate of his career (1.9/9 IP). He also allowed five fewer home runs than he did in 2010 despite throwing 30 more innings.

 

Strengths

As evidenced by his numbers from last season, Pettibone already displays good command and a solid understanding of how to pitch. His delivery is very easy with no extraneous movement of stress on his shoulder. 

 

Weaknesses

Pettibone is still trying to find a third pitch to complement his fastball and changeup. He has implemented a slider into his repertoire, though he has to start throwing it more often to get a good feel for it. 

 

Report

He is the best bet of all the Phillies' top prospects to live up to his potential. He is going to be a mid-rotation starter if he can find a consistent third pitch to throw for strikes. 

ETA: 2013

 

4. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 20

While the Phillies are trying to figure out how to develop hitters to plug into their lineup, you can see based on the first four prospects on this list that their strength lies in pitching. Biddle is another young, projectable arm that could crack the rotation in a couple of years. 

 

Strengths

Despite being just 20 years old and having one full season of professional baseball under his belt, Biddle has a good feel for all of his pitches. He will throw them at any time in any count, challenging hitters to beat him. 

 

Weaknesses

One major concern for Biddle is the inconsistent velocity he showed with his fastball in 2011. There were times when he has been clocked in the low-90s, but last year it fell down to the high-80s and touching 90. He also doesn't have command of his pitches yet, as evidenced by his 4.5 walks per nine innings pitched. 

 

Report

There is a lot of projection left in Biddle, so if he can get his velocity back into the low-90s and figure out how to command his pitches, he will be a mid-rotation starter. But he has to get back the heat that he lost for that to happen. 

ETA: 2014

 

5. Freddy Galvis, SS, 22

By re-signing Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies told Galvis that they still need to see some improvement in his bat before they are ready to hand the reins over to him. There is no work left for him to do on defense, so he could be a trade chip if the Phillies don't find a spot for him. 

 

Strengths

Speaking of the glove, it is impossible to watch Galvis play and not love what he does at the shortstop position. His two best skills at the position are his range and instincts. He has an incredible understanding of how to play the position. 

 

Weaknesses

His offensive upside is limited. He doesn't have good plate discipline, nor does he project to have a lot of power. 

 

Report

As long as Galvis doesn't get amnesia and forget how to play the shortstop position, he should at least be an average major league shortstop. If he can give anything offensively, it is a bonus.

ETA: Late 2012

Follow @adamwells1985

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Cliff Lee Pass Roy Halladay as Staff’s ‘Ace’?

Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay may currently be the two biggest superstars in the city of Philadelphia. There is a good chance that you will see a Halladay or Lee jersey if you walk around the city, and that's even during the offseason.

That's also in a city that features the likes of Michael Vick, Jaromir Jagr, Claude Giroux Hunter Pence, and to a lesser extent the first-place baby Sixers with Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Co.

Who would've thought that Philadelphia would have even half of those names a decade ago? Anyone?

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee form the most dominant one-two punch in MLB, and even third starter Cole Hamels would be a starter on almost any other in team in the league. Both Lee and Halladay have won a Cy Young in the American League, and Halladay won it for the second time in 2010 while pitching in the NL for the Phils.

Halladay became only the fifth pitcher ever to win the award as a member of both leagues and almost won it again in 2011. This article by Fangraphs does a great job proving why Halladay and Lee were both more deserving of the Cy Young than Clayton Kershaw last season.

Halladay is the consensus best pitcher in baseball, but could Cliff Lee be better in 2012?

Let's take a further look as to why Lee could outshine the "Doc" this season.

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2013 MLB Free Agency: Every Team’s Odds of Signing Cole Hamels

This offseason marked the final year of arbitration for Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels (pictured), who has been an integral member of the team's rotation since 2006. This past season, despite a modest record of 14-9, the 2008 World Series MVP posted a remarkable 2.79 ERA with an 0.98 WHIP as he continued to establish himself as one of baseball's elite pitchers.

Sure enough, he and the Phillies avoided arbitration on January 17, when he signed a one-year deal worth $15 million.

While it was a certainty that Hamels would be back in the City of Brotherly Love for the 2012 season, it's a bit of a shock that the Phillies didn't look to sign him for longer. The money he'll earn next season is the highest for any pitcher prior to becoming free agency-eligible.

Given Hamels' value to the club over the years, one would think that the Phillies would make a greater effort to lock him up long-term.

Instead, Hamels could possibly the the hottest commodity on next year's free-agency market and given the number of teams that could use a front-line starting pitcher, he could be in line to receive a multi-year contract worth in excess of $100 million.

Any team would be lucky to have him, so the question poses itself: Where will Hamels play in 2013? Let's have a look at each team's odds of signing the two-time All-Star next offseason.

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25 Most Polarizing Philadelphia Phillies of All Time

When you're around for as long as the Philadelphia Phillies' organization has been, a lot of players are going to sign contracts to wear your uniform. Like anything in life, some you will love, but others you will absolutely despise.

If the Phillies are known for anything, however, it is a passionate fan base, and that creates a few interesting results in regards to a love / hate relationship. The city of Philadelphia is a blue collar town, and Phillies' fans love players that work hard, succeed, and leave their all on the field.

As long as you play the game the right way, you're okay by Phillies' fans. On the flip side of that coin, however, approach the game in an opposite matter, and, well, you're going to wind up in the dog house for a long, long time.

For the sake of this list, we'll call those guys "polarizing players."

That means that these players inspire one type of response. They are absolutely loved by the fans or the fans absolutely hate their guts.

The players on this list are ranked by their "polarization factor." More simply, they are ranked by the emotional response they invoke. So, for example, if one player if Player A is "liked" more than Player B, then obviously, Player A will be ranked higher.

However, if Player C is "hated" more passionately than either player is "liked," then he will be ranked the highest.

Now the only question is: Just who are these players?

For up to the minute Phillies information, check out Greg's blog: The Phillies Phactor.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Valdez Trade Creates Tremendous Opportunity for Galvis

Are you ready, Freddy? You have a big chance to advance your career right now, Mr. Galvis.

The Phillies traded Wilson Valdez to the Cincinnati Reds on Jan. 25 for left hander Jeremy Horst. In doing so, they traded the final member of their major league infield.

The spot leaves a void on Charlie Manuel’s bench that includes only Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome as reserves. Neither of the two veterans have any chance of being put in at shortstop, regardless of it being in a backup capacity. Essentially, Jimmy Rollins, who has taken three trips to the disabled list the past two years and four such trips since 2008, lacks a back up.

The front runner to take the final spot is Michael Martinez, a utility player who spent all of 2011 on the big league roster. Martinez had to be on the roster though, or the Phillies would risk losing him. That risk doesn’t exist anymore.

Presumably, he would be the front runner to take the spot. But let’s never count Michael Martinez as a lock to make any team’s roster. He’s Michael Martinez. He’ll be 30 years old by the season’s end, and could not even crack the Nationals’ roster once, not even as an injury replacement or September call up in some of Washington’s worst years.

 

Making 234 plate appearances last season, Martinez hit .196 last season. He didn’t just struggle with pinch hitting; the switch-hitter hit .203 in games in which he started. In his best month, he peaked at a .247 clip in July.

In other words, he can be beat.

 

Who can beat him? There is only real in-house candidate that could compete with him being capable of playing shortstop: Freddy Galvis. The 22-year-old with a slick glove certainly has the defensive capabilities to replace the reliable glove Valdez posses.

Does he have the bat? Well, Galvis actually has improved each season offensively to project some type of major league competence. His respective annual batting averages from 2007-2011 have for the most part climbed upward: .203, .238, .240, .233, and .278. That’s all while climbing from low A ball to AAA, obviously facing increasingly challenging competition.

 

There is reason to think he could perform at least within reach of Martinez’s .196, if not .25 points higher. Again, they would not be losing anything in the field either and from all accounts would actually be making an upgrade over Valdez and Martinez. Additionally, he brings adequate foot speed checking in somewhere between 40 and 45 on the traditional “20-80” scouting scale. Galvis stole 23 bases at two combined levels last season, but was caught 13 times. He could work on his base stealing, but his speed is by no means a “deal breaker.”

It would benefit both he and the team if Galvis could top Martinez for the last spot. Realistically speaking, Martinez does not have much a future with this team. To his credit, he made the team as a 28-year-old rookie last season, but we’ve likely seen his highest potential.

Having established that as the case with Martinez, let’s peak into Galvis’ future.

Galvis is the most apparent “shortstop of the future,” Jimmy Rollins' heir apparent. At 22 years old, he could put himself in position to learn the game by watching a collection of accomplished, established veterans for 162 games as a front row spectator. It would beat filling out a spot in the Iron Pigs’ lineup each night.

 

There is a track record of that type of success in Philadelphia: a young prospect sitting on the bench, backing up a veteran as part of their way to transition into becoming a big league player. The players who have done this while playing for the Phillies within the past 10 years have outperformed those who did not.

Note: I am not guaranteeing Galvis will be an All-Star, just identifying a trend.

Chase Utley was a dynamic threat of the bench in 2004 and the first part of 2005, in addition to being an injury replacement for David Bell and Placido Polanco in 2003. Ryan Howard eased in 2004-05 as well, also at times being an injury replacement.

Shane Victorino was Pat Burrell’s late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner in the first part of 2006, then played increasingly more games once Bobby Abreu was traded and Aaron Rowand was injured. Carlos Ruiz was a part-time catcher from 2006-08 before easing into the starting catcher role. Michael Bourn was a backup center fielder in 2007 and extra legs off the bench, and although he was traded to Houston, he was able to become an effective All-Star starting center fielder.

Why does it work? One particular reason is the younger players learn from the proven, established veterans. Utley was there with David Bell, a current minor league manager, and Placido Polanco, who is widely regarded as a future manager. Ryan Howard backed up a future first ballot Hall of Famer in Jim Thome. Carlos Ruiz played behind a two-time All-Star catcher. Shane Victorino roamed the outfield with the all-out Aaron Rowand, and Bobby Abreu, who had one of the best approaches at the plate in the National League.

Conversely, people who were thrown right into the starting role did not really reach their potential.

Pat Burrell was widely considered a player who performed below expectations. Granted, he had a productive career in Philadelphia, but not nearly as successful as he was expected or projected to be. He became a full-time player less than two years after being drafted.

 

Domonic Brown has struggled as a full-time player. Marlon Byrd had a solid first year, but then struggled for the remainder of his tenure in Philadelphia. He fell off the map until he became a backup and then became an All-Star.

In general, those who eased into the role, going from reserve to starterd fared well.

Look around the horn and at their contracts. Placido Polanco could be a free agent in less than eight months. Chase Utley’s deal expires following the 2013 season. Jimmy Rollins could be gone after the following season. It would be nice to have at least an idea of how Galvis looks against major league pitching. His 150-200 at bats as a utility player would be more telling than 500 or so in AAA ball.

If it looks promising, Freddy Galvis and his pre-arbitration year’s salary would look pretty good to calm down the flaming projected payroll, which guarantees $104 million to just six players. Of the six, three of them are in the infield. A salary of less than half a million could allow them to explore external, more costly options in other positions or keep impending free agents. Wouldn’t you like to see Cole Hamels back? It’s usually best to install an internal option anyway, that is how the 2008 championship team was built.

So the Phillies have plenty of reason to allow Galvis to pursue this opportunity. Galvis just has to make the most of it to make that half a million or so salary truly be a bargain.

If he can show up in Spring Training and prove he is adequate at the plate, he has a real opportunity in front of him to advance his career significantly. It does not even need to be adequate, just better than Michael Martinez.

Galvis could then spend the next season learning under the wing of team leader Jimmy Rollins, future manager Placido Polanco, and the ultimate gamer Chase Utley.

He has a solid opportunity here of which to take advantage. Are you ready, Freddy?

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Dark Horses to Make Their Opening Day Roster

The Phillies appear to be set with making big moves for the 2012 season.

However, that does not mean that the projected roster could change.

Injuries are a big question mark with this team and Ruben Amaro has left some room for spring training competition in the bullpen. With both of these being the case, roster spots could be won with solid performances down in Clearwater.

The following presentation will list the 10 biggest dark horses to break camp on the team with the Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: How Charlie Manuel Can Get His Team to Produce Runs

It's no secret that pitching was the Phillies' strong suit in 2011.With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels on the mound, it seemed almost impossible for the team to lose, and in the regular season, it was. The team—led by their aces on the hill—cruised to a 102-60 record in 2011, but struggled in the playoffs because of their lack of hitting.

If the Phillies want to have a shot at the World Series in 2012, their hitting needs to improve.

Manager Charlie Manuel, who has been with the team since 2005, needs to rally his troops to strengthen the offense. Philadelphia's .253 team batting average and .395 slugging percentage both ranked in the lower half among MLB teams last year—an unreal fact considering the Phillies led the MLB with 102 wins.

Here are some steps that Charlie Manuel must take in 2012 to improve the team at the plate.

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