Philadelphia Phillies 1/8th of the Season Completed Review

The season is already an eighth of the way over, the Phillies are 14-6 and leading the NL East by 1.5 games over the Florida Marlins. Their record is also good for a tie with the Colorado Rockies for the best record in all of baseball.

With the aid of an unsustainable, league-leading BABIP, the offense got off to a blistering start scoring 54 runs in the first eight games. In their last 12, their BABIP has regressed to a more sensible .299, and as a result they haven not scored more than four runs in a game. Overall, their 94 runs scored entering April 24th are good for sixth in the National League. However, there are signs suggesting they were not quite as good as that number suggests. Their low 7.6 percent walk rate has led to a mediocre .322 on-base percentage, and they haven’t shown enough power to make up for it. A .379 slugging percentage and .119 isolated slugging percentage are fifth and fourth worst in the National League, respectively. On the positive side, their 18.8 percent strikeout rate is good for second in the National League.

Individually, Placido Polanco has gotten off to the best start on the team. Even though he’s been BABIP-fortunate (.370 vs. career .313), it’s led to a sizzling .367/.425/.494 line. He’s also posting career best marks in walk rate and strikeout rate. ZIPS projects .297/.342/..398 for rest of the season.

Aside from Polanco, no other offensive player has gotten off to a hot start. You can make a case for Mayberry, but 18 plate appearances is hardly enough to make a judgment on. Shane Victorino is currently leading the position players in wins above replacement with 1.0. He’s had a solid start, posting a .295/.360/.462 line with a career-high 9.2 percent walk rate.

Of the regular starters, Raul Ibanez has gotten off to a horrendous start and Charlie Manuel should seriously consider platooning him soon. I don’t want to delve heavily into his poor start as I recently wrote a more in-depth article on him.

Ben Francisco has not been impressive. He’s been a bit unlucky posting a .259 BABIP, leading to a low .247 average and .309 on-base percentage. Surprisingly, and sadly, he’s second on the team in isolated slugging percentage. His rest of the season ZIPS projection of .265/.327/.436 with 11 more homers in 359 plate appearances looks pretty accurate.

Many people are complaining about Jimmy Rollins’ lack of RBI, but like many intelligent baseball people know accumulating RBIs in itself is not a good way to judge a player’s abilities. His glove is still superb and his 11.2 percent walk rate is a continuation of last year’s career best 10.2 percent walk rate. His power has not appeared yet, but I expect it to rebound soon.

Valdez is again showing he is nothing more than a replacement-level player. The GIDP machine is posting an absurd 68.1 percent ground ball rate, second highest in the majors. Expect more GIDPs and barely above .300 on-base percentage with little to no power. It’s amazing the love such a bad player gets in Philly. I can’t wait for Utley’s return.

Ryan Howard is a notorious slow starter, so I’ll give him a slight break for now. But a .330 on-base percentage is unacceptable.

Fortunately, as expected, the Phillies have lived off of their strong pitching. Their 68 runs given up is second best in all of baseball and leading the National League. Even though their ERA is third in National League, their 2.90 FIP and 3.42 xFIP are good for first and second, in the league. Limiting walks and home runs allowed has been a huge part of that success. Giving up only 2.7 walks per nine inning leads the league and their 50.3 ground ball percentage is behind only the Braves.

Not surprisingly, when you break down those numbers by starters only, the Phillies have been head and shoulders above the rest of the league. They lead the league in: Strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, strikeout-to-walk ratio, home runs per nine innings, WHIP, FIP and xFIP.

The big four of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt have been as advertised. Oswalt’s been a bit lucky .210 BABIP, resulting in a lower than normal 1.88 ERA. On the other hand, Blanton and to a lesser extent, Lee, have been a bit unlucky. Blanton has suffered from a high .357 BABIP and 63.5 left on base percentage. His 3.58 FIP and 3.47 xFIP suggests he is pitching much better than his 5.92 ERA suggests. His impressive 55.6 percent ground ball rate is a huge jump from last year’s 41.9 percent.

As far as relievers go, Antonio Bastardo has been nothing short of dominant against both lefties and righties. 14 strikeouts per nine innings, .78 WHIP, 1.27 FIP and 1.92 xFIP is just silly. I wanted him to be used as the lefty out of the pen last year instead of Romero. Hopefully Manuel finally realizes how much better Bastardo is than Romero.

Jose Contreras has done very well as closer. A 2.30 FIP, 3.32 xFIP with 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings are all very impressive. 

Danys Baez, Kyle Kendrick and David Herndon have been much worse than their ERA might indicate. All three have the fabulous combination of an inability to strike people out and walk too many. Combined, they have a 5.17 FIP and 5.78 xFIP. They are as replacement-level as replacement-level can get.

Ryan Madson has been his usual self, not much else to say.

May holds a tough stretch of the schedule as the Phillies have two series against the Braves in addition to the Marlins, Cardinals, Rockies, Rangers and Reds. It makes it that much more important to beat up on the Diamondbacks, Mets and Nationals coming up.

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