Phillies Trade Rumors: Why They Should Not Overpay for Mets’ Carlos Beltran

Yesterday I wrote a similar piece involving Hunter Pence, but it seems over the past 24 hours, rumors have heated up more with Carlos Beltran. A number of teams other than the Phillies have expressed interest in Beltran as well, including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves and maybe the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite the demand, the Mets‘ asking price is steep for the 34-year-old switch-hitter. It’s also an asking price I do not think they will get from any team.

Despite the Phillies’ need for someone who can hit left-handed pitching, they do not need an every day corner outfielder. I probably should make that more clear. They do need an everyday left fielder, but they will not delegate Ibanez to where he should be—the bench. Given that the Phillies will continue trotting Ibanez out there by default, they can get by with having a high-split platoon player, without paying an exorbitant price tag.

The Mets insisting on Domonic Brown will not happen. There’s no chance the Phillies give up Domonic Brown for Beltran. For as much knocking on Vance Worley’s early season success I’ve done, he’d be too much to give up as well. Same goes for top prospects Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, Trevor May and Brody Colvin. Despite the apparent demand for Beltran, the Mets lack leverage and teams know this.

It is clear the Mets want and need to save money. Beltran is due about $6 million for the rest of the season. Even if they eat $4 million of that in a trade, they’d still love saving $2 million for a player they will get absolutely nothing for in the off-season, leaving the Mets with very little leverage.

Unlike past rental player deals involving Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez, whoever deals for Beltran will get no compensation in the off-season if he leaves elsewhere. In Beltran’s contract, he cannot be offered arbitration once his deal is up. Without arbitration, there can be no draft pick compensation. That means no possible first-rounder or sandwich pick when he signs elsewhere.

There’s no doubt Beltran is a good player. The biggest question marks with him are his age and durability. In 2009 and 2010 he missed over half of his teams’ games battling through injuries. He appears healthy so far this year, leading to a bounce back year, but those injury risks still linger. His speed and defense is not what it once was, but he still looks like Willie Mays compared to Raul Ibanez.

Offensively, his .397 wOBA and 156 wRC+ would both be leading the Phillies. While I do not think he’s quite as good as those numbers dictate, even with some regression, he’d be one of the Phillies best offensive players. For the rest of the season, ZIPS projects him going .281/.371/.485 with a .370 wOBA.

With Beltran, you need to play him everyday. If I knew he’d be replacing Ibanez as an everyday outfielder, I’d be much more on board, but I know Beltran’s addition will come at the expense of Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr.’s playing time. And an improving Brown needs, and deserves, his at-bats more.

Certainly Beltran would be an improvement, but he’s the purest of rentals there can be with absolutely no compensation after the season. If the Phillies felt they could even resign him for a one or two year deal in the off-season, I’d be more inclined. But I do not think they have the financial flexibility to give him that amount of money.

Perhaps if they were not paying Howard almost twice as much as he’s worth, they could. In my opinion, you do not sacrifice an important part of your future for a few months. If it meant giving away Mayberry, a mid-prospect like Domingo Santana and/or Sebastian Valle and a lesser prospect, I’d be all for it.

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