Philadelphia Phillies Could Not, Would Not, Should Not Trade Cole Hamels
The Philadelphia Phillies could not trade Cole Hamels, could they? They would not trade their lefty ace, would they?
They certainly could trade him, as the team is reportedly fielding offers (via Jon Heyman of CBS Sports). Whether they would trade him is still up for debate in Philadelphia despite general manager Ruben Amaro specifically stating he plans to re-sign Hamels to a long-term deal before next season.
The question of whether or not they should trade Hamels, no matter how far the team falls out of the playoff hunt this season, is the easiest to answer. They should not.
Simply put, if the Phillies trade Hamels, they will never be able to re-sign him. If they keep him, there is still a chance the lefty ace will stay in town.
With the 2012 season all but lost at this point, why would the Phillies front office give up on a future with Hamels if they still think there is any hope to re-sign him? Can the Phillies realistically expect to get more in return for Hamels than the bargain-basement, rent-a-player price for a guy who is planning to test the free-agent waters in the offseason? Why would a team overpay for three months of Hamels unless they thought they could sign him?
Most importantly, if Hamels has given the Phillies every indication—the only franchise for which the man has ever played—that he intends to test the free-agent market at season’s end, why would that decision change for a new team?
Do people really think the Dodgers or Yankees or Rangers will pay top-prospect price for three months of Hamels because they think they can take that time to sign him to a long-term deal? If he won’t re-sign in Philly right now, why the heck would he sign with anyone else before becoming a free agent? He owes them nothing.
Not that Hamels necessarily owes the Phillies anything either. He has every right to test free agency to see what the deep-pocket owners in Los Angeles, Texas, Anaheim or New York will offer him. Phillies fans should hope Hamels will give the Fightins a fair shake to match any offer that comes in this offseason. He certainly owes them at least that.
No matter what the price on Hamels, the Phillies should pay it.
Amaro understands that. Fans are clamoring for him to sign Hamels now, indignant at the fact the organization hasn’t “done enough” to sign him already. How does anyone really know how much they have done? Just because Hamels isn’t signed yet does not mean the Phillies have not tried.
When, in the history of sports, has a negotiation for a contract that will certainly pay more than $25 million a year been played out in public? When has a team announced in the middle of a season that they’ve offered a five-year deal worth $20 million per season, while the player wants a 10-year deal for $27 million per season, and laid out a timeline for when the two sides will eventually meet in the middle?
When has that ever happened? Never! It has never happened because that’s not how teams negotiate with players. Keeping the fans in the loop through every single step of the negotiation process would be asinine.
Having said that, with how terribly wrong the Phillies season has gone, fans have begun to look ahead to starting the 2013 campaign without Hamels, and they are freaking out. Letting Hamels leave after the season, without getting any compensation in a late-season trade this year, is enough to rankle quite a few disgruntled diehards.
People in Philadelphia point to the Roy Halladay trade for what a team can get in return for a player it knows it cannot re-sign. Toronto pulled in some of the Phillies top prospects in Kyle Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Taylor.
Less than three years later, the players Toronto received for Halladay are a bit of a mixed bag. Drabek was in the Toronto rotation this season after a terrible 2011 campaign. He was slightly better this year before blowing out his elbow, requiring his second Tommy John surgery in six years.
D’Arnaud has yet to reach the majors, but he has been regarded as one of the top catching prospects in the game. Regardless of where he was sent, the Phillies were set to trade d’Arnaud somewhere, as Carlos Ruiz is the everyday backstop in Philadelphia.
Bradley was flipped in a trade with Oakland for Brett Wallace, who was then dealt to Houston for Anthony Gose. Gose, ironically, was originally a Phillies prospect traded to Houston as part of the Roy Oswalt deal. He has yet to see major-league time.
Confusing, isn’t it? That’s the roll of the dice teams get when they trade top talent for a bag of prospects.
Toronto had allegedly taken three of Philadelphia’s top-four prospects in the Halladay trade and, three years later, still doesn’t have much to show for it at the major-league level. Besides, Halladay had already agreed to an extension with Philadelphia before getting dealt, so that completely upped the price tag on his sale.
It would be very surprising to see Hamels agree to a deal like that. Again, if he is signing anywhere before free agency begins, why wouldn’t he re-up with Philadelphia?
The recent blockbuster that best compares to Hamels’ situation is CC Sabathia going to Milwaukee from Cleveland for a two-month rental in 2008. Milwaukee thought it might be able to keep the southpaw, but essentially rented him for nothing more than a playoff run that never panned out.
The Brewers traded Matt LaPorta—a relatively well-regarded prospect who has been a disaster in Cleveland—along with Rob Bryson (who is currently in AA), Zach Jackson (who is now in AAA in the Rangers’ system) and a player to be named later (who ended up being the Indians‘ current centerfielder, Michael Brantley).
The Indians traded a Cy Young Award winner for a bust, two minor leaguers and a player to be named who happened to pan out, and the only reason the Brewers were willing to give up that much was because at the time, the rules were set up to give teams compensation if players left via free agency.
The Brewers lost Sabathia to the Yankees that offseason and recouped New York’s second-round pick and a first-round supplemental pick from MLB. The Yankees rode Sabathia to the 2009 World Series.
With the compensation rule changed, whoever loses Hamels to free agency—including the Phillies—will not receive that compensation, meaning any team that tries to sign the lefty ace will be walking the Hamels high wire without a net.
Contrary to popular belief, the lack of compensation may be more reason to keep Hamels in Philly in hopes of re-signing him. The Phillies are smart to kick the tires to see if some team is willing to completely overpay for a few months with Hamels, but without the guarantee of compensation, it’s unlikely the Phillies will be able to fleece another team of its top group of prospects.
Amaro has to know that if he trades Hamels, he forfeits any chance to re-sign him in the offseason.
Sure, the Phillies could work out a deal with Hamels to trade him to a contender for prospects with a wink-wink, nudge-nudge agreement that he’d re-sign at the end of the year.
Why would Hamels do that? More importantly, why would the Phillies trust him to do that? It would never happen.
If Hamels agrees to stay in Philadelphia, he will sign right away. No prospect in the world is worth the risk of renting him out on a handshake.
Trading Hamels, therefore, is a sign of giving up on him completely. Hamels has his family in Philadelphia. He walks his dog in a backpack around town. He wears Capri pants during charity fashion shows. He is very comfortable in Philly. As an adult, the town is all he knows.
Giving Hamels a two-month experience elsewhere and expecting he will decide to return to Philadelphia is not a viable option. This isn’t his personal Rumspringa, for crying out loud.
Letting the best free-agent pitcher in the game leave for so much as a day will be signing his walking papers for good. The Phillies are better off holding on to Hamels and guaranteeing him they will match any realistically competitive offer.
The guy is that good, and he will be worth that much money. With a TV deal that ends in 2015, the Phillies are just three years away from the biggest payday in local TV history. They should not worry about money, even if Hamels puts them over the luxury tax. He is worth the money.
So, promise to match any serious offer. And if Hamels wants to leave after that, the Phillies can hold their heads high, knowing they did everything they could to keep him.
Some fans may be upset about getting nothing in return for him when he leaves, but the mere chance at keeping him in the fold is worth taking that risk. Unless the package in return includes a major-league-ready starting pitcher, what the Phillies get in exchange will be a complete roll of the dice.
With the season all but lost in Philadelphia, the view of the future will always be better with Hamels on the mound. The Phillies have to know that.
Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com