Top 5 Offseason Questions Facing the Philadelphia Phillies for 2012

For a team that finished 2011 with the best record in baseball (102-60), you would expect a fairly quiet offseason.  Sure, an early playoff exit may stir up a few issues, but nothing really major.  Such is not the life for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Free agency and injuries have the team facing some major decisions before the 2012 campaign.  After signing Cliff Lee a year ago (as well as trading for Hunter Pence during the year) we all know they aren’t going to shy away from making a splash, but will they have the money to make a similar move?

Let’s take a look at the major questions facing the team this year:

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Fantasy Baseball Digging for Saves: Is There a Closer Controversy in Philly?

Seeing Jose Contreras getting a day off on Friday was not surprising. He is 39 years old and had appeared in four games in five days. According to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (click here for the article), he had thrown 72 pitches over that stretch. 

He certainly deserved a rest, but is that why he was also not used on Saturday when a save opportunity presented itself once again? Gelb has a quote from manager Charlie Manuel saying, “He’ll be ready to pitch [Sunday].” He also said that Contreras “is OK.”

Now, fantasy owners are left wondering what is going to happen. Ryan Madson certainly has the better pure stuff, but his struggles in the closer’s role in the past led to him being overlooked for the role with Brad Lidge out of action. All he’s done over the past two days is allow one H and zero BB, striking out one, in 2.0 innings of work to lock down two saves.

Could he now start to see a few opportunities? His 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, along with 10 K, over 9.0 innings of work would certainly justify such a move.

However, what has Contreras done to lose his job? All he has done is post a 0.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, along with nine K, in 8.0 innings to convert five saves.

Are we going to move to a committee situation? Will the matchups dictate who is going to be used? Will one stumble by either pitcher lead to the other getting the next opportunity?

It’s hard to imagine Contreras losing the job, considering that he has done nothing but excel in the role thus far. However, the Phillies may want to see if Madson, 30 years old, has finally matured to the point that he could handle ninth inning duties. 

It is no secret that Brad Lidge is no lock as a closer and, with his contract expiring after 2011 (the team does hold a $12.5 million option that is unlikely to be picked up), the team needs to know if Madson can handle the job in 2012 (though he is also a free agent after the year) or if they need to import another option. Madson will likely command far less than someone like Heath Bell or Jonathan Papelbon.

How this will play out, no one knows, but it has become a difficult situation for fantasy owners. Both Contreras and Madson should be owned in all formats, but unless your league values middle relievers or if you are desperate for saves, both should be on your bench. In a perfect world, if you owned one you would also own the other, but we all know that’s not always possible. Given Madson’s history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him stumble, but right now he certainly is in a groove.

What are your thoughts on the situation? Who do you think deserves the job? Who do you think will be the closer?

Make sure to check out the Rotoprofessor Closer Tracker (updated on April 24) by clicking here.

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MLB Fantasy Baseball Digging for Saves: Who Will Replace Brad Lidge?

Brad Lidge is the latest closer to go down with an injury and how long he will be out is completely unknown.

The pain in his shoulder has yet to be identified, meaning he could be out a week, a month or maybe more. It was just a few days ago that I questioned if Lidge was even worth owning (click here to view) and now things look even more dubious. 

Obviously, there are two options for the Phillies to turn to: either Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras. The question is, who will it be?

Or, will fantasy owners face yet another “closer-by-committee” situation?

According to Todd Zolecki of mlb.com (click here for the article), the latter does not appear to be in the cards.

Pitching coach Rick Dubee was quoted as saying, “Guys are more comfortable when they’re slotted into a role. It’s preparation. You know when your time is coming. When you’re grabbing at straws, guys are a little leery about what’s going on. You like to have that back end set up.”

So, knowing that it is likely going to be one or the other, which is the player that fantasy owners should be targeting?

Ryan Madson is clearly the more dynamic pitcher. He has the better stuff and you would think that he should excel closing out games. However, he has never seemed extremely comfortable in the ninth inning. It is a small sample size, but in 2010 he converted just five of 10 save opportunities.

Over the past five seasons, he has 19 saves in 35 opportunities.

In Zolecki’s article, Dubee is quoted as saying, “He doesn’t get to the same comfort level. There’s a little anxiety there. The ninth inning is a little different than the eighth. There have been solid eighth-inning guys that haven’t been able to pitch the ninth. One day they learn how to do it.”

Contreras, however, thrived in his brief chance as closer in ’10, converting four saves in five opportunities. In his first season in the bullpen, he posted a 3.34 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 56.2 innings of work. That’s not to mention a 9.05 K/9, significantly better than he did while in the starting rotation.

If Friday’s spring game was any indication, you can tell which direction the Phillies are leaning:

Eighth Inning: Ryan Madson allows one hit in an otherwise clean inning as the setup man.

Ninth inning: Jose Contreras is perfect, complete with two strikeouts, picking up the save.

Should we be looking too much into spring strategy? Of course not, but past success clearly is going to factor into the Phillies thinking. Small sample size or not, you can tell by Dubee’s comments that Madson’s past struggles are certainly going to play a role. 

Obviously, to be safe all Lidge owners should be hoping to stash both Contreras and Madson. You really don’t know exactly what is going to happen at this point. However, if push comes to shove, all signs are currently pointing to Contreras getting the first opportunity to close out games.

Right now, neither appear to be a long-term options, but those looking to steal a few saves early on will want to probably nab Contreras.

What are your thoughts? Who do you think is going to get the save opportunities?

 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

Top 15 Catchers
Top 15 First Basemen
Top 15 Second Basemen
Top 15 Third Basemen
Top 15 Shortstops
Top 30 Outfielders
Top 30 Starting Pitchers
Top 15 Closers

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Fantasy Baseball Digging for Saves: Is Brad Lidge a Closer to Target?

Some closers are safe bets to perform on a year-in, year-out basis. 

We all know who they are and depending on your strategy when it comes to closers, most of us want to own them. 

For those who like waiting until the late rounds to fill the spot, you must realize that all closers are not created equal. Just because someone appears to be a lock to close games out, it does not make him an option worth targeting.

One such closer is Brad Lidge who, since his epic 2008 campaign, has been a fairly big liability. 

On the surface, his 2010 season doesn’t look too badly:

1 Win
27 Saves
45.2 Innings
2.96 ERA
1.23 WHIP
52 Strikeouts (10.25 K/9)
24 Walks (4.73 BB/9)
.243 BABIP

However, when we start digging in, there are a significant number of reasons to be concerned.

First of all, is anyone willing to bet that Lidge is going to stay healthy for the full year? 

Over the past two seasons, he has had three separate trips to the DL:

• 2009 – Knee
• 2010 – Two separate trips due to elbow issues

If that weren’t enough of a concern, you also have to look at what has actually been a declining strikeout rate: From 2004-2008, his low K/9 was an 11.82 in 2007. 

In the two subsequent seasons, he has been at 9.36 and 10.25. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they are clearly going in the wrong direction.

The fall could be thanks to a fastball that is clearly losing some zip. At 35 years old, that shouldn’t be a surprise, but is he going to be able to reassess his abilities and adjust? 

This is a player who once averaged 96.0 mph on his fastball for an entire season, yet clocked in at just 91.7 mph in 2010. 

Maybe the elbow issues helped to cause it, but who’s to say that he’s even over them?

Without the zip on his fastball, the control, which has always been an issue, becomes an even greater concern. 

Just look at the walk rates over the past three seasons:

• 2008 – 4.54
• 2009 – 5.22
• 2010 – 4.73

Yes, the results were there in two of the three years, but there was also a lot of luck involved, especially in 2010. 

His .243 BABIP and 82 percent strand rate are repeatable, especially from a relief pitcher who works just an inning at a time, but he also could regress back to the mean.

He is no longer among the elite in the game, not by a longshot. In fact, there’s probably a better chance that he blows up and loses the job as opposed to rediscovering his 2008 campaign. 

The Phillies are trying to win a World Series, meaning they aren’t going to be shy about making a change if need be. 

There is just too much risk involved to select him over other options.

According to Mock Draft Central, he’s currently the 18th relief pitcher coming off the board, before guys like Matt Thornton and Joe Nathan. 

Do those two have risk? Absolutely, but the reward, at least at this point, appear to be higher than Lidge’s.

What are your thoughts on Lidge? Is he a player you would target? Why or why not?

 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Kendrick, Howie
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Span, Denard
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Dilemma: How Should We Value Jimmy Rollins?

It wasn’t long ago that Jimmy Rollins was in the discussion regarding the elite shortstops in the league. 

What a difference a few seasons can make.

Obviously, we all know that Rollins is no slouch, especially at a position that is not one of the deepest in baseball. In our most recent rankings (click here to view), I ranked him fifth, but the real question is if that is a viable spot for him? 

Should he be ranked a little bit higher? Should I back him down a couple of spots?

To answer those questions, we first need to look at the numbers he posted in 2010:

350 At Bats
.243 Batting Average (85 Hits)
8 Home Runs
41 RBI
48 Runs
17 Stolen Bases
.320 On Base Percentage
.374 Slugging Percentage
.246 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Rollins' 2010 campaign was marred by starts and stops with only two months (July & August) with at least 100 AB. Injuries to his calf and hamstring cost him time, both of which are concerning, considering his legs are the key to his fantasy value.

I know he hit 30 HR in 2007, but he had never really shown that potential before (outside of maybe his 25 HR campaign in ’06) and hasn’t shown it since. 

If he can stay healthy could he return to the 20 HR plateau? Most likely, but that’s the type of number we should expect.

For a player who brings speed to the table, Rollins also has never brought an impressive BABIP to the table. Obviously, we all know that his ’10 mark is something we can expect improvement on, but don’t look for a number in the .320+ range. 

For his career, he has a .290 BABIP and has never posted a number better than .309. It’s a little surprising, considering that he used to routinely bring 40+ stolen bases to the table, but his track record is long enough that by now we need to accept him for what he is. 

He’s just not likely to hit close to .300. We are looking at a .275ish hitter and nothing more.

So, we know that the power is not what he showed in ’07 and his average is modest, at best.

What about his speed and run potential? The stolen bases are extremely hard to predict at this point: When healthy in ’09, he stole 31 in 39 attempts; now, two years older (32-years old) and coming off a year that saw him suffer multiple injuries to his legs, can we really expect him to return to his glory days?

I think he could return to 30 SB, maybe a few more than that, but going into the year expecting him to reach 40+ is a stretch. In fact, would anyone be surprised if he fell short of 30? 

The runs are going to be dependent on where he hits in the lineup and how the guys behind him produce. Yes, he is likely to be the leadoff hitter so that is not a concern (though if he struggles he easily could be dropped to the six hole). 

The problem is, do we think that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley can also rebound from “down” years? It’s a fairly safe assumption and one would think Rollins would at least approach 100 runs with a good chance to eclipse it, but he’s not going to be in the neighborhood of his career high (139).

It certainly would seem that we should be cautious when we draft Jimmy Rollins in 2011. I’m not trying to say that he’s a bad option, because he certainly has the upside to be one of the better options in the league. 

Unfortunately, three years removed from what was easily his career year, he’s unlikely to approach some people’s lofty expectations.

He has become injury prone (less than 140 games in two of the past three years) and somewhat of a shell of what he was. 

At a shallow position it’s still more than enough, but keep your expectations in check. I would probably target him around the sixth round of your draft and avoid reaching for him based on position.

What are your thoughts of Rollins? Is he a player you would target? What type of numbers are you expecting from him?

 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Cliff Lee Signs With The Phillies: The Fallout

For weeks, the baseball world has been waiting on the edge of their seats for the decision by Cliff Lee.  The assumption had long been that Lee would milk his free agency for every last dollar, likely spurning the Texas Rangers, who he had helped lead to their for World Series just weeks earlier, for the New York Yankees. 

The Rangers held out hope that they could sway him, not only with comparable dollars but also with the proximity to his Arkansas home.  At the end of the day, both teams have been left with a huge void at the top of their rotations.

Indeed, there was a “mystery” team in the mix as rumors indicated.  Lee apparently enjoyed his brief stay in Philadelphia so much, as well as the allure of pitching in potentially the best rotation in baseball, to spurn both the Yankees and Rangers.  The appeal was so strong that he took less guaranteed money in the process.

The Phillies likely have some creative bookkeeping in their future in order to make things work, if it is trading away Joe Blanton or Raul Ibanez or another move we have not yet heard about. 

Right now, those are worries for another day. 

Instead, Phillie fans rejoice what should have come to fruition 12 months earlier.  They have their dynamic one-two punch of Lee and Roy Halladay atop the rotation, and have added Roy Oswalt in the process to make up for their previous gaffe.  Of course, that doesn’t mention the presence of Cole Hamels to boot.

From a fantasy perspective, this does little to change Lee’s value.  Sure, the move back to the NL may aid his numbers slightly, but we all had a good idea of the performance he was going to put on.  That’s not the story for today.  The impact on the baseball world and what it does to two organizations are much more pressing.

With Andy Pettitte’s future in limbo, the Yankees are left with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes and a black hole for the final three spots.  Can A.J. Burnett rebound?  Can they really trust Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre or some other prospect at the backend of the rotation?

The Rangers, meanwhile, have long been a team looking for pitching.  They paid a hefty price in Justin Smoak and other prospects to secure their ace for three brief months.  Were the rewards worth the premium they paid?  They put themselves in position to challenge for a World Series title, so you have to say it was, but that doesn’t bring solace to Ranger fans today.

This isn’t the end of the story.  I wouldn’t expect either team to stop their pursuit of rotation help as they were both clearly willing to pay a hefty sum for an anchor to their pitching staff.  We will hear the ludicrous (Felix Hernandez or Francisco Liriano).  We will hear the more reasonable (Matt Garza or Zack Greinke or Ricky Nolasco).  We will hear about reclamation projects (Brandon Webb).  We will hear about everything in between

Today, however, is not a happy day for Yankee or Ranger fans.  In Philadelphia, things could not look any better.  They are an aging ball club with a small window left for success.  Yes, Lee is a 32-year old pitcher with back problems.  Maybe in three or four years they will regret the contract they just handed out, but in the here and now they can rejoice.  They have positioned themselves for another run at a World Series title and put the rest of the NL on notice.

While the rest of the baseball world struggles with accepting the fallout from this stunning development, the fans in Philly are getting ready to celebrate what many will say is the inevitable.  Luckily, baseball isn’t played on paper, though that certainly is a tough idea to accept.

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Baseball First-Round Pick Analysis: Ryan Howard

This is one of the oddest years for fantasy baseball owners, as after the first three picks the first round is extremely wide open.  It wouldn’t be a stretch to see someone selected fifth or sixth in one draft, only to be selected in the early-to-mid second round in the next.  Therefore we are going to analyze all of the potential first-round picks, looking at their pros and cons to determine if they should be selected in the first round or left for later rounds.

Up first, let’s look at Ryan Howard.

2010 Campaign: The Phillies lineup suffered from a lot of injuries, which certainly had an impact on Howard’s production.  Howard himself was not immune from the problem, playing in 143 games in 2010 after appearing in 322 out of 324 games in 2008 & 2009.

The impact was certainly seen in his numbers.  If you didn’t know any better, his line of .276 with 31 HR, 108 RBI and 87 R would look fine.  However, you have to realize that from 2006-2009 his low in home runs was 45, his low in RBI was 136 and his low in runs was 94.

What happened: The injury cost him the majority of August (40 AB), but what is really noticeable is that Howard just never had a “big” month.  He has always been a slower starter, hitting no more then five home runs in an April since 2006.  What he has always been able to do, however, is routinely put up double-digit home run months after that.  Just look at his number of 9+ HR months by year:

• 2006 - 4 (including a 14 home run August)
• 2007 - 3
• 2008 - 3
• 2009 - 2
• 2010 - 0

His biggest month in 2010 came in July, when he hit eight home runs.  At 31-years-old, it’s hard to believe that he’s simply lost the power that he once displayed, but there certainly has been a downward trend of sorts.

Obviously, in that ballpark, you have to think that he’s going to continue to hit home runs, even though he has never been dependent on Citizen’s Bank Ballpark for his power stroke.  In 2010, he hit 16 HR at home and 15 HR on the road.  In 2009, he actually hit 27 of his 45 HR on the road.

It also should be noted that Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley also missing a significant period of time didn’t help matters.  Those are two of the biggest and best bats in the Phillies lineup and without them, everyone else’s numbers are going to struggle.

What to expect in 2011: Howard is going to hit for power, I don’t think anyone is going to question that.  The question is, can he return to 40+ HR power?  His HR/FB rate has declined the past three seasons:

• 2008 - 31.8%
• 2009 - 25.4%
• 2010 - 21.1%

He hit 31 HR in limited AB and with a career low HR/FB, so there is plenty of reason to believe that, if healthy, he’s going to come extremely close to that mark.  With only two hitters reaching 40 HR in 2010, that instantly gives him credibility.

He’s also going to pick up RBI and R, especially if the rest of the lineup can stay healthy along with him.  It’s a power packed lineup that’s going to score runs, and Howard is right at the center of it.

The problem is that he strikes out a ton (32.0 percent for his career), which makes it nearly impossible for him to even come close to .300.  In fact, it’s probably more likely that he hits .250 despite all of the power.  At a position where you can find other options who will hit 30-35 HR and are almost guaranteed to hit .285+, that’s a huge negative.

The Verdict: Howard is among the premier power hitters in the game, but he plays one of the deepest positions and has the potential to struggle, potentially dramatically, in the average department.  That puts a huge question mark over his head, making him better suited to be an early-to-mid second round pick in my book.

I’d much rather take a player at a weaker position in the mid-to-late in the first round, like a Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki or Evan Longoria and hope that a Howard, Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira are available when my second-round pick comes around.  That just puts you in a better scenario all around.

What about you?  Is Howard a player you would consider in the first round?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Domonic Brown: Fantasy Baseball Minor League Player of the Year

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield has one major question mark surrounding it heading into 2011;  two, if you are concerned with the age of Raul Ibanez.

Of course, the major question surrounds Jayson Werth and if he re-signs with the Phillies. Of course, when you have a talent like Domonic Brown waiting in the wings, the concerns are minimized.  He’s gotten a taste of Major League action in 2010 (.214 in 56 AB), but he spent the majority of time in Double & Triple-A, posting the following line:

343 At Bats
.327 Batting Average (112 Hits)
20 Home Runs
68 RBI
65 Runs
17 Stolen Bases
.391 On Base Percentage
.589 Slugging Percentage
.369 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Brown is deserving of this award (remember, the recipient is someone we think can make an impact in 2011), but that doesn’t mean that we don’t have concerns. First of all is the BABIP, which we all know is above average. Granted, he has the speed to justify a better number, but .370 is a bit too much.

Couple that with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, which will likely rise when he plays regularly for the Phillies (he’s at 39.3 percent in his limited duty), and it’s impossible to imagine him hitting over .300. 

Brown appears to be more of a .280-ish hitter, max, though that’s certainly not going to make him unusable.

The power is tough to get a grip on. Just look at a few of his fly ball rates:

• Double-A (233 AB) — 41.0 percent
  
• Triple-A (104 AB) — 25.3 percent
  
• Major Leagues — 35.1 percent
  
• Minor League Career (1,581 AB) — 33.5 percent
  

Brown's a little bit all over the map, but he’s also just 23 years old, so he still has time to add strength as he continues to grow. Plus, factor in the Citizen’s Bank Ballpark effect, and we aren’t going to worry much about his ability to hit home runs.

As long as he hits the ball in the air enough - which he does - he could accidentally hit 20 home runs. As he adds more power, there’s no reason to think that he can’t be a 30-35 home run threat. He’s shown it already this year, with two home runs in just 28 at-bats in his home ballpark.

He’s not likely to be there yet, but you never know.

The speed is there, there’s little questioning that. 

Brown's always shown the ability to steal 20-plus bases, and while his ultimate spot in the batting order will determine how much he’s able to run, as well as his RBI and run upside, the potential will be there in 2011.

Of course, the ultimate question is if he fills a spot in the Phillies 2011 lineup. If Werth ultimately re-signs, which is probably unlikely, he’ll find himself back at Triple-A.

However, there are some negatives, and things Brown needs to work on, but his power/speed potential certainly make him a prospect to watch in all formats for 2011.

Others considered:

• Tagg Bozied (3B) — .315, 27 HR, 92 RBI — The presence of Placido Polanco, as well as being a 31-year-old at Double-A, make it impossible to hand him this award.  It’s an impressive season, but he’s not likely to make a major impact in 2011.
• Austin Hyatt (SP) — 12 W, 3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 181 K — The majority of his success has come at Single-A, as he actually struggled in a brief stint at Double-A (4.91 ERA over 22.0 IP).  There’s no guarantee he gets a shot in 2011, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.

What are your thoughts on Brown? Will he be a Phillies regular in 2011? How good could he be?

Make sure to check out previous Fantasy Baseball Minor League Player of the Year Award articles:

• Atlanta Braves
• Kansas City Royals

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Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Roy Oswalt Dealt to Philadelphia: Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Fallout

The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt and cash in exchange for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar according to MLB Network.

 

The Phillies Get

They create the type of one-two combo they could have had, except that they opted not to keep Cliff Lee once they acquired Roy Halladay in the off season.

With most pitchers you would be concerned with the move to a hitters ballpark, but it is not like Oswalt has called a pitcher’s paradise home in recent years. He has been better on the road (2.68 ERA) this year, but his 3.96 ERA at home is nothing to complain about.

It’s not like he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.0 percent in 2010 and 31.9 percent for his career) or gives up a lot of home runs (0.91 HR/9 in 2010 and 0.78 for his career). That should translate to Citizens Bank Park, you would think.

He hasn’t been overly lucky this season, with a .283 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and 73.3 percent strand rate. His control has always been a strength.

The one concern may be his strikeout rate. He currently has a K/9 of 8.4. That’s a full strikeout better than his career mark. In fact, since 2005 he’s only had a K/9 above 7.0 once (7.1 in 2008).

If he were to regress there, his WHIP and ERA would likely suffer slightly, because he would give up more hits (assuming his BABIP remains consistent). Yes it’s a slight concern, but not enough. He actually only had one big strikeout month this season (44 K in 38.1 IP in May).

He’s going to continue to be an above average pitcher, now with the ability to win games. It’s a big boost in his fantasy appeal.

 

The Astros Get

Happ had great numbers in 2009 (12 W, 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP), but he also benefited from an 85.2 percent strand rate so his ERA is a bit deceiving.

Like Oswalt, the ballpark will not be a factor, but he goes into a far worse situation to get wins. That’s a huge hit on his value, as was his less then stellar numbers during his rehab (5.97 ERA).

Then again, he’s shown more strikeout potential in the minor leagues (9.3 K/9 over 528.0 innings prior to 2010), so you would expect the lefties 6.6 K/9 in the majors to improve with experience.

He’s got value in deeper formats, but is not likely to be a must start in 2010. He projects more as a pitcher with a high three, low four ERA for the rest of the year, so don’t expect much more than that.

Gose is an outfielder who was ranked as the Phillies' sixth-best prospect prior to the season by Baseball America. He is best known for his defense and speed. He had 76 stolen bases in 96 attempts last season, but has struggled slightly this year.

He has 36 stolen bases, but has been caught 27 times at High-A Clearwater. He also needs to improve his ability to make contact, having struck out 103 times in 418 at-bats thus far this season.

Villar is another speed guy, though as a shortstop. He’s hitting .272 with two home runs and 38 stolen bases at Single-A this season, though he too struggles with strikeouts (103 in 371 at-bats).

Neither prospect is close to making an impact.

What are your thoughts on the deal? How is Oswalt’s value affected? What about Happ’s?

Make sure to check out our trade deadline analysis:

Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez

Alberto Callaspo traded to the Angels, Dan Haren traded to the Angels

Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers

Scott Podsednik to the Dodgers

 

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Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report: Domonic Brown

Domonic Brown is, in a way, an insurance policy for the Phillies if they are unable to resign Jayson Werth this winter.  It’s pretty safe to say that the 22-year-old is quite the safety net.

He dominated in Double-A with a .315 average, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 50 R, and 12 SB.  Then, in his new challenge of Triple-A, he has hit .429 with two HR in eight games.

Drafted in the 20th round in the 2006 draft, Brown has slowly progressed through the Phillies farm system. There had previously been concerns about his eye at the plate, but that no longer appears to be an issue. At Double-A this season, he struck out 51 times, good for a 21.6 percent strikeout rate. Couple that with a 10.9 percent walk rate and all that power, it’s more than acceptable.

Scouts talk about five-tool ability and Brown is certainly flashing them all this season with the power being the last thing that seems to be coming around.  He has stolen over 20 bases each of the past two seasons and appears to be well on his way to accomplishing that again.

As for the power, he’s been adding fly balls each year as he grows into his 6′5″ frame:

• 2008-28.8%
• 2009-37.5%
• 2010-41.0% (while playing for Double-A only)

It’s not a surprise that the extra fly balls have led to more power, something that should continue. He’s a big kid and he’s just going to continue to mature and learn to hit the ball over the fences. Just look at what Baseball America, who ranked him as the Phillies top prospects each of the past two seasons, had to say:

“His buggy-whip swing and growing strength give him plus raw power and he’s starting to translate it into production. He has the bat speed and strength to drive mistakes and take advantage when he’s ahead in the count. Brown’s other tools grade out as well or better than his bat.”

While he may not develop into a 35-40 home run guy, he certainly seems to have the talent to be 25/20 at worst.  With the possibility he turns into something even more, fantasy owners have to be drooling.

If injuries continue to cripple the Phillies in 2010 or if Raul Ibanez continues to struggle, it’s possible that he sees time this season (especially if they are fading late), but more likely he gets a September call up to get his feet wet.  Chances are he doesn’t get his real chance until 2011, when he will immediately be a must use fantasy option.

What are your thoughts on Brown? How good do you think he’ll be? Will he be a must use option next season?

Make sure to check out our new Prospect Tracker, for links to the latest updates on all the top prospects in baseball, by clicking here .

Make sure to check out some of our Prospect Reports:

• Dustin Ackley
• Yonder Alonso
• J.P. Arencibia
• Jake Arrieta
• Phillippe Aumont
• Josh Bell
• Jason Castro
• Starlin Castro
• Allen Craig
• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier
• Christian Friedrich
• Jeremy Hellickson
• Daniel Hudson
• Jay Jackson
• Desmond Jennings
• Mike Leake
• Will Myers
• Martin Perez
• Buster Posey
• Gaby Sanchez
• Carlos Santana
• Michael Saunders
• Anthony Slama
• Mike Trout
• Mark Trumbo
• Brett Wallace

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