MLB Free Agents 2012: Philadelphia Philles Sign Veteran Pitcher Dontrelle Willis

Those of a certain vintage or with access to television reruns may remember the catchphrase, "What'chu talkin' 'bout, Willis?"

That line, spoken by Arnold (the late Gary Coleman) to his brother Willis (Todd Bridges), became the main reason to tune into a sitcom called Diff'rent Strokes, which ran from 1978 through 1986. Oh yeah, they liked their apostrophes on that show.

This brings us to the news that the Philadelphia Phillies came to terms Tuesday on a one-year deal with veteran left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Per a piece by Bob Gelb on Philly.com, his base salary will be less than $1 million, assuming he passes his physical.

So, what are we talkin' 'bout?

At a time when the Phillies and veteran free-agent shortstop Jimmy Rollins have not been able to get together on a new contract, the club signed the former Rookie of the Year and NL Cy Young runner-up to what looks like very favorable terms.

So, is this a deal or a steal? At one time, it would have been grand larceny.

Willis exploded on the baseball landscape in 2003 as a tall, gangly, 21-year-old southpaw hurler for the Marlins. Placed in the starting rotation that May, he went 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA.

He made the All-Star team, won Rookie of the Year, and he was all the rage for his sheer energy and confounding, all-elbows-and-knees delivery. And yes, he pitched quite effectively, ripped the ball at the plate and was a terrific clubhouse presence.

After a bit of a sophomore slump, Willis rebounded brilliantly in 2005 (22-6, 2.63) and came close to wresting the Cy Young Award from the Cardinals' Chris Carpenter.

Through his first three seasons, the D-Train was a cumulative 46-27 with an earned run average around 3.30 and a respectable, if not stellar, WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) that averaged around 1.28.

 

The last six years have seen his once-promising career be derailed, if not wrecked. Willis' won-loss record has been a miserable 26-42, and his inside numbers have shown that he has not out-pitched that mark. His ERA has been high, and his control has been, well, abominable.

So, what role do the Phillies envision for Dontrelle, who won't turn 30 until next January? He is expected to pitch out of the bullpen, mostly as a lefty-to-lefty specialist.

On paper, given the fact that 202 of Willis' 205 MLB appearances have been as a starter, the move looks a little suspect. Not as illogical as, say, turning a longtime offensive line coach into a defensive coordinator (ahem, sorry Andy Reid), but a little risky just the same.

But, how big of a risk is it? In this day and age, this contract is pocket change, and Willis has always been regarded as one of baseball's good guys. Plus, as illustrated, he was a terrific pitcher at one time.

If Ryan Madson departs as expected, and Antonio Bastardo settles into the eighth-inning role, Willis could be quite effective in the type of duty that J.C. Romero once excelled in for the club, especially in that championship year of 2008.

Willis has some numbers that can be cause for optimism, if not wild celebration.

Bob Gelb cited these stats in his aforementioned piece on Philly.com:

His career numbers against lefties are outstanding, holding them to a career .200 average and .562 OPS against. In 2011, those numbers were even better, as lefties hit .127 with a .369 OPS against. Control is what always held Willis back, but in the small sample size of 60 plate appearances against lefties in 2011, he struck out 20 with only two walks.

 

Is this a questionable deal or a steal? That remains to be seen, but the risk-reward appears to be in the Phillies' favor.

And now, the hot stove league will soon reveal whether Willis' old Bay Area buddy, Jimmy Rollins, will stay in Philly and be his teammate.

It is certainly somethin' to talk 'bout.

 

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The Deserving Dozen: Ranking Philly’s Top 12 Pro Athletes

So, who would you choose as Philadelphia's Top 12 pro athletes? Who is your No. 1?

Indeed, how does one choose the best of the best who represent this sports-crazed town on our fields, rinks and courts? It is not an exact science, but I mostly considered the following three factors:

1) Current performance level

2) Overall contribution here

3) Popularity and/or buzz generated

After mulling it over, I decided on what I will call The Deserving Dozen—12 athletes who combine enough of the above criteria to compete for the title as Philly's best.

In so doing, I was careful to have at least one representative of each of the four teams. Philadelphia Union fans, please accept my apologies.

As this is not an exact science, I have not shown the "scores" I tabulated for each.

So, feel free to similarly agree or disagree at its conclusion, even if you don't show your work.

Let us begin.

One note: The pitcher (pictured) above made the list, but how high does Cliff Lee rank?

Begin Slideshow

MLB Awards: Should Phillies’ Roy Halladay Win Another Cy Young?

The Phillies’ ace of aces Roy Halladay has a chance to win his second NL Cy Young Award in as many years tomorrow. Will he—or technically, will the Baseball Writers Association of America—give Phillies Nation a reason to cheer?

In case you have been spending time in an alternate universe since the end of September, many Phillies fans are still in mourning over their 102-win juggernaut’s rude dispatch by the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.

Yes, there have been glimmers of good news in the offseason. Jim Thome is back in red pinstripes and just seeing this class act back in town feels good. General Manager Ruben Amaro chose to pursue Jonathan Papelbon rather than his own closer, Ryan Madson, and that acquisition figures to be a valuable one.

But those two player additions aside, it’s been tough around here, and if you factor in the Eagles’ hideous 3-6 start along with the NBA lockout, it’s been a cruel stretch for Philly sports fans. And I say that without even mentioning the horrific situation in State College, PA. Oops.

Back to the task at hand: Roy Halladay and the NL Cy Young Award.

Halladay has been nothing short of brilliant in his two years in South Philly, and has a good chance to win back-to-back awards. If he does so, Doc will become only the ninth pitcher in Major League Baseball history to win three or more Cy Young Awards. All of the other eight are, or will be, Hall of Famers. And Doc’s plaque will also hang in Cooperstown one day— whether or not he ever wins another Cy Young Award.

So will he win?  He may, but this column is not written to make a prediction.

Does he deserve to win?  It says here that a decent case can be made for Halladay; it also says here that a much stronger case can be made for Clayton Kershaw, the young ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Saying this takes nothing away from Doc’s brilliance or the splendid work of co-aces Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, who also merit consideration. Lee would rank third on my mythical ballot (just in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ian Kennedy) and Hamels would probably hang in at No. 5.

Picking a deserving winner is as much art as science. And while controversial or even heretical to some, I do tend to put more emphasis on “real stats” than some of the newer stats such as  ERA-plus, FIP, X-FIP and Gladys Knight and the Pips. Having taken shots against the IPs, I do like WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).

And yes, I also remain more of an opponent than an advocate of WAR and don’t possess a ton of patience for things like BABIP and fly ball ratio when it comes to awards. Why? I’m not a scout or a GM and believe that awards should reward actual performance.

Below are (some of) the stats compiled by my top five candidates in 20111.

 

Pitcher	W/L	ERA	IP	H	K/BB	CG/SHO	BAA	WHIP
Kershaw	21-5	2.26	233.1	174	248/54	5/2	.207	0.98
Halladay	19-6	2.35	233.2	208	220/35	8/1	.239	1.04
Lee	17-8	2.40	232.2	197	238/42	6/6	.229	1.03
Kennedy	21-4	2.88	222	186	198/55	1/1	.227	1.09
Hamels	14-9	2.79	216	169	194/44	3/0	.214	0.99

 

With apologies to Hamels, any of the top four would be worthy selections for the NL Cy Young Award this year. In most pundits’ minds, the choice comes down to Halladay and Kershaw.

Reviewing the numbers, it is hard to see why Halladay (who may well still be MLB’s mythical best starter) would get the nod over Kershaw this year.

Durability: Halladay once again topped his league in complete games, and had an eight to five advantage over Kershaw here. On the other hand, Kershaw had two shutouts to Doc’s one, and they pitched the same amount of innings, give or take one out. Call this a draw.

Control:  Doc had a ratio of 220/35 (6.29 k/bb) compared to Kershaw’s 248/54 (4.59 k/bb). If one is just looking at ratio, Doc runs away with it. But, if you look at it another way, Kershaw’s differential of strikeouts to walks was 194; Halladay’s was 185. Whose line would you take? Call this a wash.

WHIP and Batting Average Against: Kershaw rates a big edge over Halladay in BAA (.207 to .239). Doc’s better control mitigates this slightly, but Kershaw still gives up fewer hits and walks per innings pitched (0.98 to 1.04) than Doc.

Win/Loss and ERA: Again, this goes to Kershaw (21-5, 2.26 to Halladay’s 19-6, 2,35). And while neither stat is the be-all and end-all for pitchers, one would be a fool to discount either completely. To me, this is still the starting point for pitchers before examining other stats. (And yes, I supported Felix Hernandez for the AL CYA last year, despite his pedestrian 13-12 record),

Doc’s supporters—and trust me, I am a huge fan of the guy—may point to the fact that the Phillies were 24-8 in games that he started, and the Dodgers were 23-10 when Kershaw toed the rubber. Point well taken, but consider this.

When Halladay did not start, the Phillies still were 78-52 (.600). When Kershaw did not start, the Dodgers were 59-69 (.460).

Taking everything into consideration, as terrific as Doc was, Kershaw was clearly a notch above.

If Doc wins the award, it will be a chance for Phillies Nation to celebrate and once again salute a great pitcher who is the ultimate stand-up guy.

The Phillies fan in me will applaud the selection; the baseball fan in me will applaud even louder if Kershaw brings home the hardware.

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information...from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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World Series 2011 Analysis: What Can the Phillies Learn from Cards’ Triumph?

It would be interesting to know how many members of Phillies Nation watched the World Series (or even the Championship Series, for that matter).

As one of those members, I know that we can be a very provincial town, and not all of our denizens were ready to work through the grieving process by watching more baseball.

Of course, I am way too much of a MLB fan to kiss goodbye to the season just because my team was eliminated. For both of those reasons. I am still grieving about the Phillies' sudden elimination and the end of the baseball season in general. I am also not sure what an October snowfall is doing to my already miserable mood.

So while I am not quite ready to think about all of the moves that should be made for 2012 and beyond, I am ready to put some thought into what lessons may have been learned by seeing the wrong red-clad team win it all.

 

THE BEST TEAM IN THE REGULAR SEASON DOESN'T ALWAYS WIN IT ALL

It is not sour grapes to point this out—it's an easy statement to make, especially when we focus on the last 10 years.

From 2002-2011, the team with the best record in MLB only won the Fall Classic twice.

So, here's to you, the 2009 New York Yankees and the 2007 Boston Red Sox (tied with the Cleveland Indians that year). Only one other team in this stretch even had the best record in its own league—Ozzie Guillen's 2005 Chicago White Sox.

In the last 10 years, four wild card teams won it all: The 2002 Anaheim Angels, the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2004 Red Sox and this year's St. Louis Cardinals.

 

In 2006, the Cardinals won the whole ball of wax with a middling 83-78 record. That was after not hoisting the ultimate trophy in 2004 (a MLB-best 105-57) or 2005 (100-62, best in the sport once again).

As you may know, the Phillies won a MLB-best 102 games this year after leading the free baseball world with 97 in 2010. In neither case did they even return to the World Series, which they last won in 2008 with a 92-70 record, second best in the NL.

 

SO... TEAMS SHOULD TRY NOT TO HAVE THE BEST RECORDS, RIGHT?

Wrong! This ten-year trend aside, my only conclusion is that the best record in the regular season does not guarantee anything but home field advantage. Of course, home field advantage is not a guarantee of anything other than a home game to both start and conclude the series.

Clearly, it would not seem prudent for a team to kill themselves for home field advantage, but should they specifically play so as not to achieve it?  Of course not.

To be specific, there is no logical reason—baseball-wise or otherwise—that the 90-72 Cardinals should have had an advantage playing on the road versus the 102-60 Phillies.

The Phillies had clinched early, went through that disinterested eight-game losing streak and then snapped out of it by winning a getaway game versus the Mets prior to sweeping a free-falling Braves team in Atlanta.

AHA... WE SHOULD HAVE LOST TO ATLANTA

 

It was not only said in hindsight that the Phillies should consider blowing a game or two to the Braves to pave their way into the playoffs and keep the Cardinals out.

I rejected that notion then, and I still do. Why?

For one, if you can recall that amazing last day of the regular season, a lot of scenarios were still in play up till the very end. It resembled the last two weeks of the NFL schedule in that respect. If Atlanta got in, the Phils would not have played them in the NLDS: it would have been either the Diamondbacks or the Brewers.

Secondly, after going through the motions during that eight-game losing streak, the wins were a good sign, or certainly seemed to be.

Thirdly? Should the NL and World Series favorites really be scared of anyone? I don't think so.

And it takes nothing away from the Cardinals to report this truth.

They were not that hot coming down the stretch, their bullpen had blown several games in the last week and they had to expend their ace, Chris Carpenter, in the season finale.

 

THE PHILLIES WERE CONSTRUCTED POORLY: Huh?

Does anyone really believe that?

Perhaps changes will and should be made this offseason, but the Phillies were set up quite well to win it all. The pitching rotation—especially the troika of Halladay, Lee and Hamels—really was "all that" and Oswalt had looked good in his previous two or three outings. They were also pitching in their proper order with close to their regular amount of rest.

 

The lineup had a lingering injury or two but nothing dramatic... and I don't say that to minimize what befell slugger Ryan Howard.

As to the lineup's construction, this lineup (with a huge assist from its rotation) was good enough to have amassed the most wins by a large margin. With the midseason acquisition of Hunter Pence, they were loaded and were thought to be close to a lock to win it all.

Much has been written about the team's approach at the plate, and I don't discount all of the analysis.

Of course, when you're going bad, it will seem as if you're constantly taking good pitches and swinging at junk. But once again, this very team won 102 games with this approach (and beat most of the good teams and pitchers they faced).

Perhaps a new batting culture should be implemented for the coming years, but I think this deficiency has been overblown.

Before moving on, it might help to take a look at Jimmy Rollins, who has never (other than his speed or penchant for stealing bases and scoring runs when he gets on base) been the prototypical leadoff hitter.

In the five-game NLDS, Jimmy went 9-20 with a slash line of .450/.476/.659 and six runs scored. Maybe it's just me, but I'd be thrilled to have my leadoff batter score more than a run per game, and post an OPS of 1.126.

Oh yeah—he's pretty good with the leather, too.

By contrast, shortstop and leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal added some much-needed stability to the Cardinals this year, He was also 4-18 with two runs scored versus the Phillies, and his OPS for the postseason was a putrid .569.

 

This is not to say that the Phillies should issue a blank check to Rollins this offseason. This is to say that Rollins more than did his job in the postseason.

 

SO, WHAT HAPPENED?

How do I say this with any measure of elegance? Spit happens, that's what.

The Cardinals happened, and they were not your typical 90-72. Or maybe they were, judging by all the wild cards (lower case) who have won it all.

Game 2 happened, and the Phillies could not win a 4-0 game at home with Cliff Lee on the hill versus a thought-to-be-inept Cardinals bullpen.

This is not to blame Cliff Lee. I'd consider doing so if he walked the stadium, pitched with fear or showed anything but complete class afterward. A desperate Cards' team—a team that obviously would go on to show its collective mettle—was able to handle a few pitches, and the Phillies' offense went cold.

I would still take Lee in that situation every single time. Three recent losses in postseason games (after winning his first seven postseason contests with Koufax-like brilliance) would not keep me from gladly handing him the ball in a must-win game.

How about that rally squirrel... ah, give me a break.

Sometimes, you just tip your cap to a team that was just that iota better in the big moments.

 

 

WHY ISN'T THE DIVISION SERIES A BEST OF 7?

Even if it would not have changed the results (and we'll never know, for sure), I would welcome a best-of-seven. You can always sign me up for more baseball, and presumably the longer format is more upset-proof.

Would the Phillies have beaten the Cardinals in a best-of-seven this year? They may have, but who really knows?

 

ONE MORE POST-MORTEM

I had heard at least one sports talk jock expressing the opinion that a team that had won more than 10 games more than its first-round opponent should get more than just one extra home game. Did you even follow that half-baked proposal?

Now, I am all for making regular seasons more meaningful, but I think MLB has it right when it comes to the postseason. I would extend the first round to best-of-seven (and see no compelling reason not to) but coming up with a formula to give a team four out of five, or five out of seven, home games does not seem fair. It also seems rather unwieldy.

And who is to say that if the Phillies would have won this series even if they had played four out of five at home. The Cards came in to South Philly and won two out of three, versus Lee, Halladay and an offense they were able to solve.

 

 

THERE'S ALWAYS 2012

Much as I can use a hot stove, I'm not ready to focus much energy on 2012 yet.

I do see no reason that the Phillies should not be in line for another playoff berth next year, and then we'll see what happens from there.

As for the Cardinals, picturing them with a re-energized (and re-signed) Pujols, a healthy Adam Wainwright and emerging stars in David Freese and Allen Craig is kind of scary.

Then again, they could win 105 games next year and lose in the NLCS to a Philies team that only wins 89.

Stuff happens, whether one calls it karma, destiny, the laws of baseball—or "spit."

 

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information...from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

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Phillies 2011: End of Season and Grief Counseling Advice

Good grief!

Yeah, what’s so good about it?

Hopefully, at least some of you recognize this rather quaint expression popularized by good ol' Charlie Brown—that lovable loser from Charles Schulz’s Peanuts strip.

We all know Master Brown, who pitched for a baseball team that never won a game. They were the kiddie, amateur version of the Chicago Cubs, but much more lovable—and without any of the excessive payroll.

So, what does this have to do with the Philadelphia Phillies—“my” Phillies—who lost 1-0 to the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday night to be eliminated from the MLB playoffs?

a) Nothing

b) Anything

c) Everything

d) You decide

To dispense with some word play, the Phillies, baseball’s best team in the regular season with a record of 102-60, were not playing for peanuts.

They had the second-highest player payroll in MLB (at $173 million, behind the New York Yankees) and Phillies Nation (as rabid a fan base as exists) shelled out a lot of money for tickets, concessions, parking and merchandise this year.

 

 

Good grief!

So, do I really need to explain or analyze the grief experienced by Phillies fans who suffered through that cruel loss that ended our baseball season and our dream-goal of another world championship?

The team lost, and we fans experienced an almost palpable, tangible loss.

So, what did we lose? That all depends on what our perceived stake was, and that’s something that is very hard to define.

How about all of these—in no particular order:

1. Collective sense of self-esteem
2. Bragging rights
3. A psychic victory for our city, and for ourselves
4. Money (for those who bet)
5. Vindication of a sort
6. The chance to watch our team play more games
7. A true sense of loss for a group of players we’ve really come to…watch it now…love.
8. A chance to get drunk—on suds and/or life—at the championship parade.

In truth, it’s hard to do justice to everything we may have lost last Friday night. There’s an element of exaggeration to this essay, but there’s also one of understatement.

To be a sports fan is to experience both invigorating triumphs and dispiriting losses. It’s all about being elevated by breathtaking plays, surreal performances and laudable accomplishments, but also being deflated and humiliated by crushing plays and stinging defeats.

 

As a Philly sports fan, it’s sometimes about being slapped in the face and being kicked in the nuts at the same time. Hard to manage, and hard to endure, yet we manage to endure.

 

When it comes to the Phillies and the end of the baseball season, there is also an element of being left in the cold. Baseball ends right as the weather is turning colder.

Please consider this quote from A. Bartlett Giamatti, poet supreme and former commissioner of MLB:

“[Baseball] breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall all alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.”
― A. Bartlett Giamatti, Take Time for Paradise: Americans and Their Games

So, add to my list what he said, and you almost don’t have to be a sports fan to identify with what Phillies Nation (and other fan bases) are going through.

Where do we turn to give voice to our baseball-related grief? How about the writings of a recently deceased Swiss psychiatrist named Elisabeth Kubler-Ross. Why, of course.

In her 1969 (the year of the Amazin’ Mets, but I digress) book, On Death and Dying, Kubler-Ross identified five stages of grief, which are:

 

Denial

Anger

Begging

Depression

Acceptance

To simplify Kubler-Ross’ groundbreaking, seminal work, she noted that individuals who are trying to recover from such a loss may not all go through these exact five stages in this exact order.

So, what about those losses experienced by sports fans? They seem kind of inconsequential compared to death and dying in the real world.

Yet, the grief is still palpable, and many sports fans also feel more control over this kind of loss. We certainly need a way to process our grief.

 

Kubler-Ross gave us DABDA; Goldberg offers you SPORTS.

Check out the following guideline, and feel free to move through it at your own pace. It’s only been six days since the unceremonious end to the Phillies’ season, and I’m not sure where I am in this whole process, either.

 

 

SHOCK 

Immediately, Phillies fans went into a sense of shock as their once-potent offense could not find a way to score a single run in their bandbox of a field when it mattered most.

 “This can’t be happening again” is likely to be voiced in this stage, if we truly can find our voices in these moments. Most of us had no words for the site of slugger Ryan Howard grounding out to second to make the last out of the season two years in a row, and then crumbling to the ground halfway down the first baseline.

 

Sometimes words are not needed to express these moments of exasperation. Good grief may have been an option for a kid…in the 1960s…in Minnesota. Not now, not yet.

 

PRAYER (PERSPECTIVE)

Immediately after the event, many fans offered up a prayer that their team would get a mulligan and earn another shot at Game 5. Right now!

“This didn’t just happen…what the ___?!”

You get the idea. Some of us were more philosophical shortly after the disaster, and sought refuge and comfort in statistics that prove that the best team usually does not win in baseball’s postseason, especially in a best-of-five format.

Yeah, like that helps us ease the pain.

 

OBLIVION

Some of us are so oblivious to the loss that we are still matching up the Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers in our mind—and on paper. Who would do such a thing? By the way, I have the Phillies winning in six.

Many of us are not exactly oblivious to the loss, but may be oblivious to everything else in life. All that real stuff we’re just not ready to face yet. I’d make a list if I could think straight.

 

RAGE

This is Philly. We get pissed off when our cereal’s too soggy.

Many were the chairs I've broken and holes I’ve punched in walls after my teams lost crucial games. But that was then.

Now, I just go ballistic verbally; well, I usually do. But there’s just one problem this year: I don’t know who to get pissed off at.

There’s always the umpires.

Heck, Philly sports fan of a certain vintage still get enraged at the very mention of a certain hockey official named Leon Stickle. Stickle refused to make an easy offside call in a Flyers-Islanders NHL championship game 31 years ago! Take a look if you wish to; sorry about the quality of the video feed.

 

Well, there wasn’t a Leon Stickle this year to vilify, although home plate umpire Jerry Meals absolutely reeked in our crushing Game 2 loss. The less said the better, but…

Meals’ absolute clueless interpretation of the strike zone did pitcher Cliff Lee no favors as he ended up blowing a 4-0 lead in the 5-4 loss that gave the Cardinals life.

So, let’s kill Cliff Lee, as some are. Well, it’s not as if the guy stunk out there or walked the whole ballpark. It wasn’t his best game, but the guy always pitches his heart out, pitched pretty well that night (freakin’ Meals!), tried his best to find the postage-stamp of a strike zone (and managed to strike out nine and only walk two) and also took the blame afterward.

Lee remains as likable an elite athlete as has played in this town in decades.

How about Charlie Manuel? He doesn’t always make the best moves, but to know Uncle Cholly is to love him.

Ryan Howard? Yes, he’s about to make 25 million big ones per year, and he came up tiny again, especially his final fruitless 15 at-bats. But he did hit a three-run bomb to win Game 1, and he’s one of the nicest, coolest guys around. Plus, there’s that Achilles tendon he ruptured on the last play.

In truth, the Phillies are an incredibly admirable, lovable bunch of guys. I can’t really vent my rage at anyone, even the front office. Now that ticks me off.

 

TV OR NOT TV

 

Some of us try to seek solace in watching lots of television.

The more provincial baseball fans among Phillies Nation really want nothing more to do with the sport until next spring and try to get by watching sitcoms, videos and the like.

I’m way too much of a baseball lover to go this route, and I still get excited watching the ALCS and NLCS. Having said that, and even while watching my favorite player in the game, Albert Pujols, do his thing for the Cardinals, it’s just not the same. He’s not playing for my team.

 

SPRING

The last stage in the grieving process is to simply wait for the spring.

I’m not even ready to focus on the 2012 season yet, even though I’ll eventually re-assume the role of pundit and unofficial general manager while considering which players should be re-signed, cast aside and pursued.

I’m just not there yet, even if some of my fellow grievers may be well into this process.

I expect to face a long, cold, icy winter, and I don’t expect the Philadelphia Eagles to provide much shelter and warmth.

Let the spring come in its due course and when we really need it to boost our morale and regenerate all that positive energy and optimism that we Phillies fans need.

So, there it is: an unspecified period of SHOCK, PRAYER, OBLIVION, RAGE and TV prior to SPRING.

I’m willing to go through these four or so months of grieving; I also won’t complain if the next four months go by relatively quickly.

Good grief, I don’t ask for much.

 

As always, thank you for reading. Please check out my other books, blogs and speaking information...from (the) TipoftheGoldberg.com

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NLCS 2011: 5 Key Aspects of Phillies-Cardinals Series Heading into Game 5

While Phillies Nation (but hopefully, not the players) nervously await Friday night’s NLCS rubber game versus the Cardinals, MLB and more neutral fans must be celebrating the good fortune of three of the four division series heading to winner-take-all games.

Can baseball have drawn it up much better? It almost matches the insane drama of the last night of the regular season, featuring four climactic games being played almost simultaneously.

The drama and tension of the Phillies-Cardinals series is palpable. It’s hard to make complete sense of what has happened in the first four games (surprises have abounded, without even analyzing the baserunning skills of a certain, notorious squirrel), but is a Game 5 all that surprising?

I admit that I am a little surprised: I predicted the Phillies to win in four.  

What follows is my take on Five Key Aspects of the Phillies-Cardinals NLCS.

Begin Slideshow

2011 NLDS: Yes, the Cards Can Upset the Phillies…It Says Here They Won’t

The Philadelphia Phillies, the best team in MLB during the regular season, host the hottest team in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals, in a best-of-five series starting Saturday evening. There are many reasons for all of Phillies Nation to be quite cautious.

My colleague, Kelly Scaletta—a fine writer who often covers his favorite baseball team—outlined five reasons that the Cards (90-72, and a wild card from the NL Central) can upset the Phillies (102-60, the NL East champions). He offered me a chance to produce a counterpoint, and here it is. His points (paraphrased) are in bold.

 

1. The Cardinals' starting pitchers have pitched great against the Phillies this year

The Cards’ ace, Chris Carpenter (announced as the Game 2 starter, who may pitch again on short rest if there were a Game 5), gave up only one run in 15 innings vs. the Phils.this year. Kyle Lohse, the Game 1 hurler, pitched to a 1.76 ERA in 15.1. Jaime Garcia has bedeviled the Phillies the last two years, and he has matched Carpenter’s stinginess this year.

At this time, we don’t know if mid-season acquisition Edwin Jackson or veteran Jake Westbrook will get the ball in a fourth game, but even so, those numbers are impressive.

Impressive? Yes. Concerning? Oh, a little.

Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter has logged a ton of innings and seems to be peaking, judging from his masterpiece shutout of the Astros on Wednesday night. Will he be as impressive on three days’ rest? That’s an unknown.

 

Lohse has pitched well vs. the Phillies, but even the Cards must admit that it would be a bonus if he hangs with Roy Halladay in the opener.

Garcia is a little more troubling, but he has never pitched in the postseason before. He may shine in the spotlight; he may shrink from it.

Yes, the Cardinals were 6-3 head-to-head vs. the Phillies, but five of those games were played before Hunter Pence added balance and pop to the lineup. The Cardinals did take three out of four in Philly a couple weeks ago, but their incentive to win was much greater than their host’s. Give them credit, but not too much.

 

2. The Cardinals had the best offense in the NL this year

Yes they did, and objectively, the Cards’ offense was a little better than the Phillies' this year.

The Cardinals hit for a higher batting average (.274 to .253), hit a few more homers (162-153) and had the better OPS (.766 to .718). As a result, the Cards scored the most runs in the NL (766, an average of 4.7 per game) compared to the Phillies (713, 4.4 per game).

One might assert that if the Phillies had Pence for more than 54 games, they would have been closer to their NLDS opponents in all those areas. I would agree.

Yes, the Cards—especially if Matt Holliday is in the lineup—may still be a little better on paper offensively, but I think that the edge is tiny,

Of course, the edge the Cards may hold in hitting is dwarfed by the edge the Phillies have in pitching. The Phillies’ staff had an ERA of 3.02 (tops in the majors), much better than the Cardinals’ 3.74.

 

In the final analysis, should the Phils respect, if not fear, any lineup that can feature Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman as their 3-4-5? Yes. But last year, the Phillies shut down another team that led the NL in runs scored in the NLDS—the Cincinnati Reds.

 

3. The Cards are especially motivated to win for Pujols

As a full disclosure, I admit that I am about as big a Pujols fan as there is on the planet. It’s been that way since he broke into the bigs in 2001, and he has assaulted MLB pitchers ever since. I’m a fan and something of a Pujolsologist.

Even in an off-year (by his immense standards) due to injuries and contract uncertainty, Pujols still posted numbers that all but a few players in the NL would have liked to have matched this year.

As far as extra motivation, that is hard to gauge. Give the Cards credit for winning 22 of their final 31; that and an epic Atlanta Braves collapse got them here.

On the other hand, the Cards had that same motivation, and only won 68 of their previous 131. Even in their last seven games (against the lowly Mets, Cubs and Astros), they were only 4-3, and one was a total gift by a wild Cubs reliever named Carlos Marmol.

They’re not that hot, and I would surmise that both teams have huge motivation.

 

4. The Tony La Russa factor

Like him or not, most baseball fans respect what TLR brings to a team.

Two world championships, 59 postseason wins and a 9-3 career record in the first round.

In the other dugout is Charlie Manuel, who in a much shorter career as a manager, has won one championship, compiled a career 27-19 postseason record and has won three out of four first-round matchups with the Phillies.

La Russa may rate a slim edge overall, but Charlie has always known the correct buttons to push to motivate his team.

 

5. The Cardinals won the season series 6-3

Kudos to the Redbirds for doing so. Baseball, like most sports (except for stroke-play golf) is all about matchups; do they have the Phillies’ number?

Nine games is a very small sample size in baseball, and some of the effects of those games could be rationalized by a couple factors: a) the Phils did not have Pence for five games; and b) the Cardinals were desperate to win the last time in Philly, whereas the home team had little motivation.

I don’t subscribe to the theory that the Cardinals own the matchups, even if three of their starters have had terrific numbers in their starts this season.

I would put stock in these three factors—elemental as they are.

Team Records

Quite simply, the Phillies won a MLB-best 102 games; the Cards were victors 90 times.

Cardinals fans are in good position to counter this fact, as the best team over 162 games does not always win it all. In 2004, the Redbirds went 105-57 and got swept by the Red Sox.

The 2005 team won 100, but lost to Houston in the NLCS despite that epic blast by Pujols over Brad (once Lights-Out) Lidge.

Ironically, their 2006 team (only 83-78) won it all.

Having recognized that, I’ll still take the team that won 12 more times in the regular season.

 

Bullpens

Mariano Rivera is not coming out of either team’s pen, but on the whole, the Phillies have the more reliable closer in Ryan Madson (32 out of 34 saves).  While this has been his first year as the team’s main closer, he has lots of postseason experience. Antonio Bastardo has converted eight of his nine chances.

For the Cards, Fernando Salas and Jason Motte both had pretty good ERAs, but they blew 10 of 43 save opportunities between them. Only Motte has seen postseason duty—one inning in 2009.

 

Experience of the Starting Rotation

Almost any sane baseball pundit will concede that the Phillies have the better starting rotation, and the best one in baseball. Of course, that will all go out the window if Lohse bests Halladay in the opener or Carpenter gets the better of Cliff Lee in Game 2.

If you count Jake Westbrook (1-2, 5.60 postseason) as the No. 4 starter, the Cards’ rotation has a combined record of 6-6. Carpenter is a solid 5-2, 2.93; Lohse is 0-2, 3.38; Garcia has yet to toe the rubber in October and Westbrook is 1-2, 5.06. Jackson has never started in the postseason.

The Phillies counter with Halladay (2-1, 2.45); Lee (7-2, 2.13); Hamels (6-4, 3.33) and Oswalt (5-1, 3,.39)—a combined won-loss record of 21-8.

 

Final Analysis and Prediction

I would like to think that I have much more than a pittance of baseball knowledge, even if one should not bet the farm on my projections. Would you like some evidence?

The Cardinals are a worthy opponent with a terrific manager and for my money, (still) the best hitter in the game.

All that said, the Phillies offer a much better starting rotation, a slightly better bullpen and an experienced lineup that should be able to hit with St. Louis.

Part of me thinks the Cards will split the first two in Philly and take it to five. The other part of me is feeling a sweep.

So, I’ll split the difference: Phillies in a very entertaining four-game series..

 

Matt Goldberg, a featured columnist for the Philadelphia Phillies and all-around baseball fanatic, is also a noted humor author and speaker. For more information, please visit www.tipofthegoldberg.com

 

 

 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Tops in MLB, but Will They Capture Any Individual Honors?

Like that Old Man River, the Philadelphia Phillies just keep rolling along.

Even after Monday's 4-3 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and a rare series loss, the Phillies still clinched home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Actually, it was the first four-game series all year that they haven't at least split.

The Phils are where they want to be, and they have the luxury of resting certain players for the postseason—the "real" season for a team that is trying to meet its great expectations.

Indeed, if they win at least four games out of their remaining 10, they will set a franchise record.

Although it is all about the postseason for baseball's elite, it's not as if the 162-game, always-entertaining grind was of no importance. Several Phillies have had award-caliber seasons.

Which ones should be rewarded for them?

Will Roy Halladay repeat as the National League Cy Young Award winner?  What about his rotation-mates, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

Who deserves MVP consideration?

Will that bespectacled fan favorite known as "Vanimal" walk away with Rookie of the Year honors?

And how about Uncle Charlie Manuel, who has presided over the best team in baseball?

Take a look at several Phillies players (and a manager) who deserve to figure into the balloting—per my own, still-mythical ballot.

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Old vs. New Turf Wars and the NL Cy Young Candidates

Baseball fans, beware! What was once a small neighborhood gang war may now be taking over our beautiful national pastime.

Sorry to be so alarmist, but this (artificial) turf war seems to pose the same danger as the Crips (who wore blue) and Bloods (red) did to one another in 1980's Los Angeles. Granted, no lives and body parts are at stake here, but the very way we view baseball statistics is.

If you wish to color this great divide, the Blues can represent the Neanderthals, the Luddites, the old-school types. These old men and women—to hear the “Reds” describe them—only look at counting stats and simple metrics such as RBI, wins and losses and ERA. I guess they are the blue-bloods who treasure the history of the game and don’t accept change easily. Or at all.

The Reds are coming on strong, as they are attracted to much sexier terminology such as WAR (wins above replacement). Such militaristic jargon appeals to a new breed, who ironically use a lot of stats that rhyme with “ip” such as FIP, x-FIP and BABIP. They scoff at traditional statistics.

Wins and losses and ERA for pitchers? Batting average for batters? To the Reds, who gives a blip? Please pardon the vernacular.

Of course, this topic deserves a much stronger treatment than I will produce here, but for now, please be thankful that this is not a slideshow or a power ranking. Okay, it does culminate in my preliminary ranking of the leading National League Cy Young Award candidates.

As for these two diametrically opposed gangs, I belong to neither.

I may be too analytical for the Blues and too traditional— and I’d like to think logical— for the Reds. For example, I don’t care much for WAR, but do like to whip out tools like WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched).

Call me a Green, if you will. I want to make peace with both sides for the greater good of the game. I think that many Blues should get used to the idea of going beyond the surface of readily apparent stats to dig a little deeper.

But as a Green, I increasingly see the Reds as more of a threat to the peaceful coexistence of baseball fans everywhere and to the sanctity of the game. Left with complete power, I fear that under a Reds dictatorship, time-cherished stats such as wins and losses will be abolished or relegated to four-point type.

RBI will be considered meaningless, and one day power hitters will be ranked solely on how many homers would have been homers to left center at Wrigley Field in 1958 on days when the temperature was between 55 and 83 degrees and when the wind was less than 15 on the Beaufort scale.

Two notes here. If you think I’m an expert on either the Bloods and Crips or wind measurement metrics, think again. If you think that most of the Reds could succinctly tell you how to calculate more than half of the stats they parade, think again, and again.

This all leads me to the National League CY Young Award race. With very few pennant races up for grabs in the final three weeks of the 162-game grind, this promises to be one of the most hotly debated years for individual contests.

By the way, 2009 was a great year for the Red gang, as Zach Greinke captured the AL Cy Young Award with only 16 wins while Tim Lincecum won over the NL voters with only 15. If 2009 was a great year, 2010 brought unprecedented joy as the Mariners' (King) Felix Hernandez garnered the award with a 13-12 record. King Felix’s coronation was hailed as a victory for the stat geeks, who saw the possibility that even the most steadfast Reds would see the light shining from the beacon of inside baseball stats.

Have they, er, we, seen the light—Reds and Greens alike?

Last year, AL Cy Young Award voters had a choice (primarily) between Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27) and the Yankees' CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18). They both had great years, especially when you consider that the King won 13 games for a team that finished 61-101 and compiled a much better ERA. Hernandez was also superior to CC in innings pitched, complete games, strikeouts, K/BB and WHIP. He led the league in many of these departments.

Last year, my mythical vote went to Felix as well, and I also gave a lot of consideration to another 13-12 hurler, the Angels’ Jered Weaver.

Time, as well as this year’s NL Cy Young Award vote, may help us see if the Red gang is winning this ideological turf war and if a paradigm shift occurred these last couple years.

Let me express one more thing before giving my current rankings of where I would place my top five NL Cy Young candidates.

The Red gang uses a lot of stats that rhyme with “ip” (not to be confused with innings pitched) to quantify what a picture can or cannot control. My quick take is this: yes, there is some luck involved in pitching or hitting a baseball, but the game needs to be (mostly) defined by easily measurable results. 

In trying to determine the most worthy recipient of our votes, we need to look at performance. Strikeouts do add value to a pitcher’s profile and walks detract, but not all batted balls are created equal, and I don’t subscribe to the school of thought that a pitcher is lucky because his FIPS, or PIPs, or xfPIPs or Gladys Knight and the Pips were out of expected norms, or off key. We’re awarding performance, not predicting future success as scouts or general managers.

Before ranking numbers one through five in ascending order, I have not ranked the next six pitchers, five of whom would round out my top 10:

Tim Lincecum (Giants): 12-12, 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 200 Ks

Matt Cain (Giants):  11-10, 2.84, 1.06 WHIP, 164 Ks

Johnny Cueto  (Reds, the Cincinnati Reds): 9-5, 2.36, 102 Ks in fewer innings/starts

Craig Kimbrel (Braves): 4-2, 42 saves, 1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

John Axford (Brewers): 2-2, 36 saves, 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Joel Hanrahan (Pirates): 2-2, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

I should also explain that these are my personal choices, and not predictions as they stand now in a very tight race.

 

5. Cole Hamels, Phillies

Hamels' stats are 13-7, 2.65, league-leading 0.97 WHIP, two complete games, 169 Ks and 38 BB. The third Philly ace has pitched brilliantly this year, but has been stuck on 13 wins for a month, due to a missed start, rain-outs and poor run support.

4. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

Kennedy's stats are 18-4, 2.96, 1.12 WHIP, 167 Ks and 51 BBs. The league leader in wins (and win percentage for qualified starters) is coming on real fast, winning nine of his 10 starts since the All-Star break. In those 10 starts, he has only yielded more than two runs twice.

His ERA is a bit higher than the top three, and some of his other numbers aren’t quite the eye candy that Reds love, but he’s edging closer and closer to No. 1.

3. Roy Halladay, Phillies

Halladay's stats are 16-5, 2.49, a league-leading seven complete games, 1.06 WHIP, 195 Ks and 26 BBs (also the best K/BB ratio). Doc has been, typically, brilliant this year, and his numbers are not far away from those that won him a unanimous Cy Young Award in his first year in the NL. He has been just a little bit out of rhythm at times since the All-Star break, but still quite good.

Starts have been moved back due to his starting the Midsummer Classic, hurricanes and biblical rains, and he even had to endure a silly, 13-minute instant-replay delay. Through it all, he’s been great, even if I’d rank him narrowly behind two southpaws.

2. Cliff Lee, Phillies

Lee's stats are 16-7, 2.47, a league-leading six shutouts—and one out away from a seventh—1.03 WHIP and a 204 Ks and 40 BBs. Given his MLB-leading six shutouts and two Pitcher of the Month titles, Lee has probably been the most spectacular pitcher in the league when playing his best.

Cliff is white-hot now, having won his last seven starts and only giving up six runs in his last six. Still, I have him ever-so-slightly behind…

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw's stats are 17-5, 2.45, 1.02 WHIP, a league-leading 220 strikeouts and 50 walks. Kershaw ranks either first, second or third in almost every meaningful pitching category this year, and I gave him a few extra points for being a dominant force while playing for a dispirited, non-competitive bunch.

When Kershaw gets a decision, the Dodgers play .773 ball; in their other 119 games, they are playing at a .437 pace.

So, there you have it. Kershaw has a slight lead over Lee, Halladay, Kennedy, Hamels and Company on my ballot, but he still has to close the deal down the stretch. It’s that close.

Kershaw, although wearing Dodgers Blue, has compiled lots of stats that even the Red gang can embrace, even if the WAR-mongers among them still seem to favor Doc Halladay.

Let the artificial turf wars continue without bloodshed, and play ball!

Matt Goldberg, a featured columnist for the Philadelphia Phillies and all-around baseball fanatic, is also a noted humor author and speaker. For more information, please visit www.tipofthegoldberg.com

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Ranking the 7 Biggest Surprises of the Season

This was supposed to be a 2011 season with very few surprises in store for the Philadelphia Phillies.

In the eyes of most pundits, the Phillies were tabbed to have the best record in the National League, and they have certainly more than made good on that projection with the best record (90-48) in Major League Baseball.

How they have achieved elite status in the regular season has been a cross between a dull formality and a spine-tingling rollercoaster ride.

The veteran-laden team has, as expected, received brilliant starting pitching, even if one of their four aces, Roy Oswalt, has been hampered by injuries. The Phillies have suffered their fair share of other injuries as well, even if the standings have hardly reflected it.

So injuries aside, which seven players have provided the most drama to the formality of the 2011 regular season?

How would this one columnist rank these surprises in ascending order, from least to most pleasant?

The answers to these questions are just a click away.

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